slow, fast, instant 2

SLOW, FAST, INSTANT 2

One of the first problems with the Stair Step Collapse is that the model isn't even factual if you are looking at it historically. We were steady in the 50's, dipped slightly in the 60's, took a HUGE step down in the Seventies, then a giant step UP in the mid to late 80's, then another very large step UP for the 90's, a big step DOWN, a leveling off, a lot of small steps up until 2008, then a huge plunge down. That doesn't look like any stair well I know. And yes, the basic point of the Stair Step Collapse is that we collectively step down, then reach equilibrium, stay there awhile until the next step down.

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In other words, no problem is so big that we cannot adjust and go about our lives normally. This from the man that DID believe in Peak Oil and did follow the book “Overshoot” as, supposedly, his bible. Yet, he ignored the lessons of Peak, and the lessons of overshoot and sudden die-off. He was preaching to the widest audience, selling his brand of religion ( hugging trees ). And evidently, I'M the crazy one for NOT being religious, and a barbaric religion is preferable to no religion. Well, I'm hyperbolic. His religion was No Doom. That always sells well.

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Peak Oil is only no big deal if you ONLY look at the US, which had institutional mechanisms in place to restrict the production of oil. It looked like a very long process of depletion ( another model is that of Norway, even more conservative than America in its draw down, but that is rarely studied in an 'Murican-centric survival community ). The rest of the world was more boom and bust. Just look at Britain, which used its half of the North Sea oil to enrich London, pay off the anarchist hoodlums, and quickly resettle as many OtherColors and OtherReligions as they could before the economy collapsed, and now has too little energy.

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Look at failed narco state Mexico, which produced oil too quickly. Even look at Saudi Arabia, which very well could have False Flagged itself to hide the fact of plummeting production ( the war with Yemen was over getting THEIR oil ). More countries than not are well past their Peak Production. This didn't become a resource problem so much as it did an economic issue, as the lack of growth is the most dangerous condition central bank run economies can face.

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The premise of the book “Overshoot” ( a more stuffy academic book than not, but easy to slowly wade through as it is so fascinating ) was that ALL species overpopulate if excess resources are available, then die-off after overshooting the carrying capacity. The famous example is yeast in a vat. Greer highly recommended this book, yet ignored its obvious lessons completely. Over shooting your resource base is in no way a stairstep process.

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I'm not even sure I approve of our Italian friends Seneca Collapse. The model certainly fits, but I think his love affair with Gore Warming and his hero worship of Greta has scrambled his brain and unduly influenced his calculations. A failure in the ecosystem is a lot more devastating to most species of animals than it is to man, whose tool making and cultural adaptation and cooked meat fed brain makes him infinitely adjustable to change. As a species, we laugh at climate change. Not so much our non-naked companions.

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The Seneca Cliff is like a roller coaster, all the way up, slight pause and then a fast ride down. This is basically a boom and bust. He uses a lot of models such as animal populations and economic industries to make his point. The problem I have with it is that although it is in general a good guideline, in specifics it ignores a far longer timeline. I contend that a better model would be the growth phase, then the top which is much longer than implied. The top is indeed a “bumpy plateau”, but the general line is downward. Then, after a long period of Bumpy, a drastic drop.

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In other words, it is ALL downwards but extremely slow, until suddenly it isn't anymore and plunges. As I said, the Seneca Cliff is a close enough model, except for the velocity around the top, one of those details that might impact you, which makes a distinction important. Which is the only reason I argue against it. I think it is better to view the collapse as Slow, Fast, Instant. Yes, just another name for Waterfall Collapse, but it warrants its own articles, so renaming it is my ulterior motive.

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Another irritating Greer insistence was that you had two choices, a VERY slow and long collapse or an instant collapse. And since he mocked and derided Instant Collapse ( “ha, ha, look at all the ignorant arseholes that predicted The End Of The World” ), that only left long and slow. I myself do not think Instant Collapse, outside global nuclear war, or an asteroid, or solar flare/EMP or supervolcano, is very feasible either. No Rapture or what have you. But if a long downward collapse has already been happening, a plunge at the end IS probably assured.

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And yet another irritating truism ( I'm not sure who from ) was the “if you are unemployed it is a Depression, if your neighbor is unemployed it is a Recession”. That implies that despite certain people experiencing unfortunate accidents, that doesn't make for a collapse. Which is a very good way indeed to ignore the trends that point out an occurring collapse. For instance, if you just dismiss religious war in Sudan as “Africa Being Africa, primitive Sambo's, low IQ” ( or similar dismissive nonsense ), you don't quite get the famine issue underlying the conflict. Nor do you understand the lack of food aid being about the running out of grain reserves globally.

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When the constant steady direction of indicators is DOWN, even if it appears to almost have stopped, you more easily connect the dots of timing the collapse. No, no one can actually time the collapse, but you can at least know how much closer we are to danger. On the Stair Step model, there is the Hopium Illusion of staying steady. But, wait, Jim, you fair haired stud, you said the stairsteps were all up and down in severity, when you initially refuted that model. And so I did. For the US. Not so much for the globe.

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You will perhaps recall that our economic boom in the 90's was directly fueled by stealing the energy from Russia, who had a huge roll back in administered land and a big plunge in population though economic collapse. The 80's economic recovery of the US and Britain were the result of the last giant oil fields coming online ( there have been no “elephants” since then ), but the rest of the globe subsidized that and had less energy themselves as Iran and Iraq oil was largely curtailed from their conflict.

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Globally, per capita energy has been steadily decreasing since 1979. If we are blinded by our intermittent good luck, we ignore the continuous global decline. And our fortunes have been tied to the globe for a good many years. For fifty years, either ourselves or others have been in decline, a zero sum game where ones good fortune was paid for by another's misfortune. But overall, it has been a constant decline. Not a step down followed by no change, but a steady down hill journey. It was fifty years of a slow decline, but a much faster decline for almost the last fifteen of those fifty. We continue tomorrow, as we await the “instant” part of that so far Slow, then Fast, collapse.

( .Y. )

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