50% retail

50% RETAIL

A little while ago I made a comment that went something like “we probably don't have 70% of the economy as consumption anymore”. My point was that as the number of people in the work force is now UNDER the amount during the housing bubble collapse, which is a wee bit odd considering immigration and births, less jobs mean less money means less retail sales. You poor deluded fool, the retail apocalypse has ZERO to do with Amazon. That company is seeing declining revenue itself, now, right before Christmas. And half of ALL online sales are OTHER than Amazon.

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I've been harping on that one for some time. Amazon is not stealing enough business from retailers to close their doors. If you think about it, who in the name of all that is good and just actually wants to buy clothing online, where they cannot try it on? Do you REALLY, Honest Injun, think that bitches don't need to try on clothing to see if it makes their butts look too big? Do you even know any females? Do you even know of all that many DVD's that sell on Amazon as cheap as the Wal-Mart $3.98 bin? And that doesn't even include the shipping cost.

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You do understand that a lot of retail businesses closing their doors are actually clothing stores, yes? The exact merchandise people want to see in person before buying. You have noticed Amazon is experimenting with opening some retail stores, right? Why would they do that, if it was a money losing proposition? They are probably throwing money at retail and shipping infrastructure because of falling sales, and they are desperate to keep their stock price elevated. Bezos has a divorce to pay for.

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250 million people age eligible to be workers. 95 million of those without work. 38% unemployment. Now, I grant you, some of those permanently without work are on the gray market, earning a few spare bucks by whatever means ( although it sure ain't from YouTube anymore ). Some are students from rich parents. But they sure as God made little green apples are not employed in the conventional sense and are more than likely earning close to dingus. No matter how many folks are not truly unemployed but rather under employed, the unemployment rate is STILL most likely worse than the 1930's.

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But here is the point. People making from no to very little money don't go out shopping at retail stores. They don't go shopping at Amazon. They are lucky to go grocery shopping. They don't buy cars, which is why the percentage of the economy devoted to manufacturing has taken a giant wet crap lately ( it also ties in to the global collapse of manufacturing from overcapacity, so that even paying Mexicans $3 an hour building cars there is impacted. It is NOT about wages, but demand of price inflated goods ). They are NOT consumers! Not as was traditionally the norm for 75 years.

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Going on my daily trek over to Market-Ticker, I read that government spending ( just federal ) is 20% of the GDP. We know medical USED to be 20%, which is slightly higher now as the only employment numbers growth were in that industry ( plus the ObammyCare demand ). Manufacturing has slipped below 10%. By my common core math, that means consumption slipped to below 50% of the economy. From seventy! Holy Friggin Crap, Batman! It is a miracle ( that, and the hundreds of billions the federal reserve to pumping into the stock market ) we don't have MORE retail closures.

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Now, I'm not going to scream about hyperinflation. After the tens of TRILLIONS that the central bank pumped into the economy since 2008 ( both global and local ), we should have seen a butt ton more inflation than just triple and quadruple increases in prices ( as if that wasn't bad enough, at reduced hours and frozen wages ). Ever since derivatives and market intervention started becoming standard practice, all my studies in economics have been rendered moot. I don't pretend to understand. With not only money and credit creation, AND additional numbers of countries abandoning the Petro Dollar, we should have seen more inflation.

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I'm not complaining, you understand. Perhaps the fracking oil growth put a brake on that. Perhaps the Fed is smarter than I give them credit for and they know how to hide inflation better than the 1970's. Perhaps we should just be thankful for the reprieve and understand our luck won't hold indefinitely. Rather than being fearful of worse inflation, what has me concerned right now is that huge drop in consumption. From 70% to 50%. That isn't a sneeze, that is more like barnyard flu. We see semi-truck freight down significantly. Rail and ship freight down.

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We see medical and government up, and they produce nothing of value. The government is in charge of stealing from Peter to pay Paul, and the medico's are in charge of asset stripping a lifetime of savings and investment in exchange for killing you early ( but with a smile on your face from an overdose of opium ). That is NOT an economy that does anything other than self-destruct. Manufacturing is near worthless, because the rest of the world won't buy our crap the bean counters designed. And Americans can't buy it because there are no jobs.

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Americans can't even buy Chinese crap, and the ChiComs see their economy shrink ( but at least they are nor seeing negative rates of growth like we are, just less regular growth than they were used to ). Retail and consumption has been the only growth in jobs ( outside medical and gov ) for decades. That was the only things replacing industry, on a large enough scale to matter. And now, that is being destroyed. It will not be too long before the only jobs remaining belong to the 9% overseer class. Employment for the Deplorables is moving to a temporary, part time, casual paradigm.

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This isn't any more doom-y and gloomy than normal. I don't mean to imply massive famine from lack of funds or anything like that. All I am doing is refuting even more lies and “statistics” that paint the truer picture economically. Plenty of folks are living with parents, living on Food Stamps and drug deals, living on their college grant money for living expenses, are on straight up welfare, or combinations thereof. A lot of that government spending is a de facto substitute for employment. I'm just saying, hey, things are, employment wise, worse than 1929 or 2007, so be very aware and very cautious.

( .Y. )

( today's related Amazon link click HERE )

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