ptb snafu poda 4 of 4

PTB SNAFU PODA 4

Okay, we’ve gone under the assumption that a cabal of smart enough and ruthless enough Elite members have directed the inevitable collapse towards favoring them ( goose the velocity so that there remains surplus energy ), whether or not the probability of such an event is feasible.  We are “war gamming” here, not making predictions or prophecies.  How might events unfold?  For you and me, the Little People, nothing changes initially.  The Die-Off must proceed in order to eliminate surplus population ( while it is true that every empire since agriculture was perfected has played a birth surplus game to have a strategic advantage, we run into a unique situation at present in that the entire globe is cannibalizing itself rather than the traditional “area A against area B, winner secures the necessary surplus”.  The war over oil was already fought and won, and surplus energy is indeed helping some areas over others, but histories one off wealth surplus is drastically shrinking.  Nuking country A doesn’t get any extra resources for country B.  Not enough.  One needs to cut down on ones own population as well as the others.  This is the only time population has so drastically exceeded the carrying capacity, and on a global scale-history isn’t the best guide here ).

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Your choice of relocation is close to the same, with a few caveats.   You don’t want to be in an area that the rulers are eyeballing.  Because, and beware, solar economy and industrial economy resources are NOT the same.  Whereas in a primitive economy as long as you avoid a few choice targets-fertile soil and watered areas, salt mines, key transportation locations-you are going to be pretty safe from his Lordships moving in to subject you to his rule but in an industrial economy the targets shift.  For instance, post-oil, Louisiana back woods provide a lot of primitive survival opportunities.  Not for nothing did French hillbillies inhabit that very location for generations.  But if they are too close to a oil refinery?  Goodnight.  You might pose no threat to the rulers power, but you could damage his petroleum plant and must be eradicated.  An otherwise unneeded area up atop an Appalachian mountain, bare of mineral prospects, water sources, rich soil, otherwise left peacefully to its inhabitants, might be the best place for a rail line.  Out they go. 

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Take my area for instance, northeast Nevada.  Yes, it has a short butt-ton of gold.  But in just the last five years the energy needed to process it has doubled ( give or take-that is the global average ) with yield dropping.  It isn’t just a question of the cost of diesel needed for the giant machinery used to extract the VERY diffuse ore, or its availability, but also of financing and parts availability and other factors.  Rapidly, far quicker than the projected twenty odd years, the ore is going to prove uneconomical to extract, regardless of the amount remaining.  The remaining oil isn’t an endless gusher-it still must to triaged.  Will the high wastage energy use this industry expects have a viable future?  In the end, it is an open question, but obviously I’ve bet on a complete shutdown.  I of course could be wrong, in which case my post-petroleum oasis becomes a cruel trap.  These are the calculations you need to perform.  Can your area be used by the post-oil elites?

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Even if you find your area unexpectedly occupied by Petroleum Users, all is not lost.  It isn’t like you can’t move, for instance.  The whole country just lost a bunch of people.  But even if you do stay and fight, you aren’t automatically assured of losing ( despite my earlier comment about spear chuckers being decimated by train transported troops with Maxim guns ).  Yes, you must be talented and lucky to survive.  And yes, sometimes tech will prevail regardless.  But there are differences between how and 150 years ago.  Such as, population is decreasing, not increasing.  The energy supply is contracting, not expanding.  Machines will be breaking down as Chinese parts will no longer be shipped, rather than there being an increase in machinery.  If you stay out of the reach of those hypothetical machine guns ( or literal, although I’m wondering how wasteful our new kings will be after they realize the bottlenecks in logistics they are facing now ), you don’t have to worry about reliving a White invasion of the AmeriIndians territory.  I think a better analogy would be the Ottoman Empire attempting to subdue the Arab held regions ( think “Lawrence Of Arabia“ ) and not doing so great of a job of it due to the long supply lines and other issues which negated their military and transportation supposed superiority.  Or think about the Russian Empire.  They also had long supply lines, and about the same superiority in arms and transport, and they prevailed over the horsemen hordes.  Not because of higher tech, but because the Asians fought to the Russians strengths rather than weaknesses ( a nice example of hubris there, yes? ).  Never fight the way that helps your enemy. 

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Avoidance is best.  Exploiting the enemies weakness is next best, if you can’t avoid them.  For instance, rather than fighting better equipped men, fight his need for fuel oil.  You don’t need any, you are mobile infantry guerrillas.  He is tied to his rail and road transport.  Immobilize his transport, as it is both his advantage AND his weakest link.  If you aren’t in the cities ( a captive slave market, even if you survive ) and aren’t in the way strategically, any future petroleum empire most likely poses less of a threat to you than you think.  Look at the Finns kicking the Soviets asses, even when it was just skiing troops against tanks.  Or the Vietnamese using bicycles against jets and helicopters.  It is more how smart you are than how well equipped ( hint, hint, AR-15 and MRE toters ).

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