article 2 of 2 today

article 2 of 2 today

NON LINEAR

The book “Global Crisis” by Geoffrey Parker caught my eye some time ago ( apropos to very little: the book “Why Lincoln Chose War” by Spencer Gantt was gifted to me by a Top Tier Minion [translation, he is in my favor at the moment] and I must say without hyperbole that this has got to be THE best Alternate non-fiction Civil War book I’ve ever read.  And I’ve read quite a few in search for the truth behind Abe “I’m a skinny male prostitute selling my virtue to the railroad companies for fame and fortune” Lincoln.  Most are clearly by Southerners with an ax to grind, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  But none of them dug down to the financial causes of war.  This one does.  Highly recommended on Kindle [you don’t need the paper version as this 100 page large print book is bloated to get past about the only-really-needed ten pages.  Save your money on the shipping charges].  I needed to include this note both to give extra added needed thanks to said minion and to spread the word on this great book.  Sorry it took so long, it never traveled from the back to the front of my brain ).

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“Global Crisis” is not a cheap book, nor is it an easy read.  The writing style is excellent ( read the sample pages offered at Amazon.  If you like “big picture” books you will get hooked ) but every single page is so crammed with detail you pretty much have to take it a bit at a time or get Brain Ache.  Less than two dozen pages in after the introduction he talks about the non-linear nature of food prices, population growth and calorie deficit.  I’d like to cover these here, both because if you can’t picture collapse as non-linear you won’t be prepared much at all, and because the information itself is frightening, fascinating and important.  Keep in mind we are talking about the 1600’s here.  Very modern except that carbon fuels had yet to be utilized past cooking and heating.  First up, the simplest concept to grasp, population growth.

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As you read this, keep in mind the advocates of the Thousand Year Fracking Reich and their insistence that a decrease in the increase of population growth will save us all ( as in, oh mercy sakes you pessimistic darlings, the population growth is no longer 5% but a mere 3%.  Nothing to worry about there.  Why, just a few more funds and condoms to a UN Girl Power group and we will have the population problem under control! ).  When population grows at a mere 1% a year, in a century your population has doubled.  Do you really think we will have petroleum to feed 14 billion people in a century ( yes, I know that is a linear equation.  Of course it is ridiculous )?  That is bad enough, right?  But a 2% increase is SEVEN fold in a century.  Now THAT is non-linear.  Nobody in their right mind thinks this planet can support a seven fold increase in today’s population.  Yet, when the population rate increases over 2%, because they don’t think in such long term figures, everyone thinks the problem is manageable. 

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Non Linear is a gold plated bitch.  But those above are the GOOD figures.  Once we get into crop failures and calorie deficits, something that happens in mere months or seasons,  the picture is a lot more bleak.  Stay tuned next article.

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