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Thursday, October 1, 2015

deflating expectations 3


DEFLATING EXPECTATIONS 3
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It's that time again, ye loyal minions.  Malthusian Survivalist Newsletter #3 is unleashed upon an unsuspecting world.  October issue: AR verses AK, Stock It Cheap And Deep, Wheat Worthy? Who Is Worth Saving.
Link To MSN #3
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Now, you could disagree with me on food deflation.  I certainly wouldn’t hold it against you.  You might think up and down swings is simply the regular day to day historical norm as one food is in a glut and another scarce, plus seasonal factors, plus others ( for instance, if “we”- and by we I mean them because most waste is from marketing forces and has nothing to do with customers leaving their asparagus too long in the refrigerator- can cut back on the Waste For Profit Paradigm ).  But no matter.  You buy on the dips and deepen your pantry and stockpile to smooth out and lessen the impact of rising prices.  It isn’t like you can do too much more ( if, and I can’t imagine this is true as this is the Redneck Survivalist Channel, you can actually afford stocks, I’d steer clear of any company processing food ).  And prices will remain as low as possible here in the US because while we are not by any stretch of the imagination a country of surplus resources anymore, our economic system is built up around more consumerism for lowest priced goods.  But what about rent and cars and medical and every friggin thing else?  If oil is going down in price, but nothing else is, what is to be made of our future expectations?  Deflation makes sense as petroleum is cheap, plus demand destruction, yet inflation makes sense as our own eyes clearly see prices of everything else rising ( even gas isn’t down all that much now with oil at $50 compared to when oil was at $80 ).

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Demand destruction, as fewer and fewer folks can’t just cut back as when wages are lost temporarily but completely are removed from being a consumer of anything other than food-another reason food isn’t cheaper is the monetary inflation from Food Stamp increased rolls, is conflicting with resource depletion.  Neither are temporary forces but the new normal.  But, after a moments reflection, you can bet that demand destruction is going to be the predominant source.  There are a lot of people that can decrease demand, and they have been forced into that for the last seven years, and that continues and is ongoing, which at the same time decreases the pressure on resources.  I think we are seeing that with oil.  Demand has fallen so fast due to economic crashes that all the excess capacity from Fake Oil ( tar sands, fracking oil, ethanol ) from when oil was $100 a barrel is sending prices below production costs as companies struggle with survival.  And oil should have everything else following in price.  Or at least, that is the historical norm.  But now the dwindling Rich class ( the Mega Rich class is dwindling, but at the expense of the mere Rich, as well as all other economic classes.  Consolidation is happening )  is desperately trying to prop up their cash cows, and government bail outs queer prices.  As with automobiles and medical care.  When, and it WILL happen, the economic crash comes to those industries, even the bankers jacking up rent by removing the ownership option, those prices will join the rollercoaster up and down.  When a service can’t be had at any price because a former customer is in the poor house, and the provider is in debt, prices WILL be lowered as necessary.  Even to below costs.  We will see both inflation AND deflation, and you can NOT tell which one or when.

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4 comments:

  1. Hey I just went through your amazon link to purchase about $120 worth of stuff that was already in my cart. Can you confirm you got your share of it? (included books and gloves).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The reports are two days behind. In two days, e-mail me with the title of the book and then I can confirm. Everything is broken down by day or individual product, not by order.

      Delete
    2. jimd303@reagan.com
      that is three zero three, not three oh three

      Delete

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