aggressor states 2 of 5

AGGESSOR STATE 2

The day after I wrote the first installment of this fast paced thrilling treatise on whether aggressor states shorten their lifespan, whether they are sustainable, our Italian professor who brings us Cassandra’s Legacy Blog published ( or, at least I encountered it the next day-to me, same thing ) an article on Rome and its involvement with trying to subdue the Germanic tribes on the wrong side of the river.  His main point was that from that point on, relatively early in the empires existence, occupation stopped paying and started costing, and that was also the end of the Republic.  Comparisons were made to the middle east occupation and the use of the American FedGov of 9/11 as an excuse to end the Republic and expand the empire even, or especially, in the face of declining profit from its military operations.  Without getting into splitting fine hairs about Lincoln birthing the smelly hairy gargoyle of Empire out of his ass that consumed the South then moved west until it had the Philippines,  I think his point stands if we consider things from an accounting viewpoint and leave the question of when our Republic died alone.  In the last few years, the earlier embryonic legwork creating the beginning of the end of the Petro-Dollar went from waiting in the shadows to a full sprint and is simply awaiting a nice event such as the Saudi involvement against Syria and Iraq degenerating into a successful attack against their refining capacity, under cover as a ISIS terror event or something similar, to cross the finish line.  There won’t be a global P$ replacement, merely a regional one with shifting alliances as the last of the high BTU oil is fought over, but the important thing for the US to understand is that it doesn’t friggin matter because without that crutch our economy is over.  The colonies not only are not paying their own way for our occupation, our entire house of cards is blown over. 

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Rome lasted over three hundred years after the military fiasco in Germany, after the increased costs of occupation far outweighed the tribute and resources gained.  The US has lasted, to date, ten years.  Peak Oil might not have had the instant power we had imagined, but it stopped growth in a growth dependent paradigm.  Rome was the same, to a degree, but it was a longer, slower growth rate that had the ability to unwind slower.  Every trick in the book such as inflation and tax increases and expanding citizenship had power behind it to kick the can down the road.  We are trying the same tricks but they simply are not working to gain us any time, as they were used for the last hundred years not to save us but merely to make more profit.  Now, when they are needed, their power of rescue has been dramatically decreased ( example: expanding citizenship by sanctioning illegal immigration was used for short term profit.  Now, the only thing that more people do, rather than keeping demand for consumption up to goose the economy, is to cost more in welfare and consume dwindling resources ).  When you suddenly within ten years go from oil production growth to oil production contraction, along with EROEI ( net BTU oil, Energy Return On Energy Invested ) going from twenty to one or even thirty to one, down to ten to one or far less with ethanol or tar sands, your economy can’t recover and starts going down fast.  Three hundred years to go to die-off?  Your ass.  Okay, I couldn’t help but veer off from topic.  Next article let’s try to do the history of aggressor states, besides Rome.

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