MOORE MALTHUS
Moore’s Law states that microprocessor computer power will double
approximately every two years. This
observation was made about 1970 and has held true. I remember reading something way back about
the limits having been reached by the laws of physics or some such thing but
didn’t pay it much mind. And, obviously,
they did something different so that today, even if the progression has slowed
somewhat, for the common Joe Blow on the street just buying a machine for games
and porn, it seems the equation is holding as computers just keep getting
cheaper and better. Now, obviously, no
one thing such as packing more transistors on a chip is going to account for
the price of a PC. The Mac did nothing
for lowering prices ( my first Mac was over three months wages, and that was as
a manager of a gas station- not exactly white collar wages but certainly not
minimum wage either ) but did make the computer more than just an accounting
tool. The Windows OS made computers
cheaper just by focusing on average consumers rather than artists and
professionals ( my Mac was probably way overpowered just for word processing
but I did write most of my first newsletter on it ). Recently, as Microsoft started melting into
an irrelevant pile of crap, other operating systems injected some long absent
competition into the market and knocked some damn sense into House Gates and
PC’s halved in price. Not that much of
that is really all that important, from the perspective of the average buyer. Not your hard core nerd programmer, your average
person who devotes as much thought into the workings of a computer as they do a
toaster.
*
And this article is indeed about both Uber-nerds, surgical taped
eyeglasses, virgins but for their tech sector income, topic of most interest
the processor speed of the newest skunk works offering, super dorks, as well as
average marshmallow person, thirteen sports channel viewing, Obammy worshiping
Sheeple. It is my contention that
Moore’s Law is the one thing most responsible for the complete lack of interest
in resource depletion, climate change, sustainable living, decentralized living
or any other topic outside “American Empire Uber Alles, fracking oil to the
rescue, Kunstler’s Happy Motoring paradigm, business as usual and growth
forever”. Moore’s Law taught us,
computer geek to bubblegum chewing mouth breather, that technology always
advanced and tech always saved us ( forget that technology is just robots
taking our jobs ) and since for forty-five years this has been true it will
true forever and forever, amen and hallelujah.
If almost all of us seek the electric teet to shut out the real world,
and electronics powered by Moore’s Law keep getting cheaper and better, our
subconscious desire to live in our bubble world indirectly turns our reality
into the world of Tron. Even if you are
well grounded in the real world, at the minimum you are fed a debilitating
shred of a doubt that tech can actually save you regardless of what your primal
reptilian brain is yelling at you.
Thanks, Moore, now far less of us want to know about Malthus. But, hey, living a life on Facebook sure was
fun as we all pretended to HAVE a life, right?
( note to computer nerds and geeks and other assorted goobers, this
coming from a former D&D nerd until I got laid, get a friggin life if you
start picking apart the small details here-in general, regardless of a missed
date or other minor fact, I’m sure my analysis holds )
END
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* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there
My first machine was a Commodore bought with pocket money at, are you ready?, Toys R Us.
ReplyDeleteMy 2nd machine was an IBM clone 286 with DOS and I had payments on that bitch for 2 years.
Just bought a Win 8.1 machine 2 months ago and it is trash. None of my software can be installed, not even my AutoCAD, and I'm pretty much convinced it is nothing but a (confusing) toy for people that blob out on the couch in front of the toob most of their life as it is in no way meant for anything even remotely resembling full scale productivity.
The only saving grace is that walmart fucked up and mistakenly priced this $700 toy at $319. I'll be paying for that stroke of luck for the rest of my life. I bet I'll be done with this whole hi-tek nonsense in the next 2 years or less.
Life is like a roll of shit paper, the closer you get to the end the faster it goes, and I don't intend to spend the limited sheets I have left playing around with nonsense meant to keep people connected when all I want to do is the exact opposite. I can barely tolerate anyone any more.....
Just using word processor software from Windows machine to Windows machine is a whore. Write in one, save as another on a stick, use in second machine with new version. Love the bit about that roll of TP
DeleteThe next time you're tempted to waste your money purchasing Microsoft Office, use OpenOffice instead.
DeleteOpenOffice is free. It does everything MS Office can do, as far as I can tell. And there are versions for Windows, Mac, and Linux.
I have a copy of MS Office, but it is a student copy that I bought for $8 when I was taking classes at the community college.
I don't have the greatest experiences with "free" software. They either just don't work for me as a layperson or take up a big block of time. Luckily I only ever need a WP, and I can pay some to ease my writing headache insofar as tools go.
DeleteI'm an IT professional that has been at it for about 20 years. I'm running Win 7 Pro on my machine. Win 8.1 is frustrating, but usable. I will NOT be installing Win 10 on anything. I'll keep my wife on Win 7 as long as I can, but I'm starting to transition to Linux. I may have to learn how to use Win 10 professionally, but that's fine, no personal PC will have it. I have even shut off the the little reminder down in the system tray to "Upgrade Free to Win 10"
DeleteI've never encountered Windows offering a free OS. Wonder what the catch is.
DeleteThe catch is then you HAVE to upgrade/patch in the future (plus a lot of near spy ware type functions).
DeleteA Microsoft government bailout in exchange for spy easy OS? Would explain how they have stayed in business.
DeleteI dropped the Windows OS a few years back, and went with Linux. I was faced with having to buy either a much newer PC, or upgrade my current ones to a newer Windows OS. Due to finances, I went with the free choice (Linux) and haven't looked back.
ReplyDeleteYou can actually go to http://www.pendrivelinux.com/ James, and download the universal USB installer. You can then download any version of Linux and try it from your USB stick, and decide if you like it enough to permanently install it on your machine. Assuming that you don't have an ancient computer, you only need to set it at power up to boot into USB. You don't really even have to install it, and can just run it from the USB, but the USB sticks only have a limited shelf life when you read and write to them a lot. The other things is that you have to go with a Distro that allows you to create a “persistent drive, with casper read/write option” if you wish to be able to save your work or settings to the same USB drive. Otherwise, you can just save your work to your computers main drive.
All the versions of Linux that I have seen come with an office suite. Libre office writer is just as good as MS Word in my opinion. But you must save your files as .doc as opposed to the Linux format .odt in order to view them in your windows machine.
Linux has its glitches as well, but they're few and far between, and since it's free, over lookable as well.
If I'm using a USB stick daily to save my writing, do I have to worry about their limited shelf life? Should I start on a new one each year?
Delete
DeleteI would only save my PC settings to the USB James. Otherwise you will have to change things around on every boot, such as text size, screen pixels, and what have you, unless you just go with the default settings each time. But as far as your actual word files, I would also save those to your main computers disk from the USB. You will be able to see your other drive(s) from the USB boot up.
You have to save them as a .doc so that you can see them in windows though. I actually don't know how long the USB drives last if writing to a lot? But they're certainly cheap enough that changing one out every year or so wouldn't be unreasonable. The one other poster mentioned the open office word processor. That's pretty much the same word processor as I'm referring to. He's referring to a version that's available for windows. Many Linux based programs will work for windows, but not vice versa. Please add Bill Gates to your list of post collapse “Lamp Post” eligibility.
In a word - Yes.
Deletethe tiny Micro SS chips are the shortest lifespan.
Optical discs of archival quality have the longest lifespan.
But all media for computers degrade with both age and usage.
All the preppers who bought huge libraries of ebooks on their solar powered e-reader for their great - grandkids will be most likely, disappointing those grandkids.
Modern laser printed paper also has issues as the toner starts to bleed and flake over years and increased temperature - but it can remain legible up to 20 years in my experience, where the magnetic discs and chips (like the USB drive) often putz out after 5 or so absolute maximum with usage wearing that down. Common optical discs, kept in good conditions and seldom accessed seem to last about 15 -20 years in my experience- some longer some shorter.
Get the best info into archival quality ink and paper (not laser jet toner) if you want it to last. Or be prepared to have to back it up and copy it repeatedly until you run out of media to copy it to.
Excellent to know, thank you. I could live if my USB drives failed, as once a week what I just wrote goes online, but it would still be a huge PITA. I think I'll take my four small USBs and put them on my new bigger USB I bought at Wally for $5 as a back to school special, then transfer to the new one next year I get at the same time.
DeleteThat is pretty much what all the companies do- have multiple copies of their important data, computers are good at copying data, raid arrays of disks and redundant servers doing round robin services, etc.
DeleteWhen the Crash comes I expect the last government correspondence most of us receive will come from the IRS, a tax bill based on previous and projected income....
Unless the post office quits delivering first.
DeleteI agree on the data archiving/ I move my 32 GB of survival goodies to new and multiple types of drives. I have a SSD in my new LT, and they are supposed to have a long lifespan, but I don't know the number. As for DVD/CD's. The Gold in color (may be gold too, don't know) Archival media are supposed to last more than 20 years. I have a pile of those blank somewhere. Quite a few of the documents in my survival library date back to the early 90's when you had to us a modem to connect to a BBS. Those that were in txt format have been converted to PDF. I have kept the original too. (I'm a data packrat.)
DeleteTo be honest James, I really didn't know who Malthus was, so I looked him up. I recall that at my last job, whenever the topic of resource depletion came up, the leftist that I worked with would always state that he had at least some faith that “technology would save us”.
ReplyDeleteI found the below quote from a critic that thought along the sames lines as my former coworker, but even that critic sort of did an about face on his initial claim, and must have had at least some doubts? I personally have never really researched this topic. But right off, I'm seeing one hell of a lot of technological advances that would have to be put into place in a relatively short period of time “in order to save us” and I don't have a lot of faith that it's going to happen?
“Engels also states that the calculation that Malthus made with the difference in population and productive power is incorrect because Malthus does not take into consideration a third element, science. Scientific “progress is as unlimited and at least as rapid as that of population”. On the other hand, Joseph Tainter argues that science has diminishing marginal returns[13] and scientific progress is becoming more difficult, harder to achieve and costlier.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
You can argue technology or innovation queered Malthus' prediction, but what you really mean is that a ginormous huge colossal unprecedented infusion of energy came along and suspended his equation for a few centuries. That energy, in just ten years, with a mere few percentage point in drop of production, has undone the last hundred years of progress in feeding the population. Malthus was right, with a commercial interruption from the Oil Age.
DeleteTrue. It is all about energy. The current "revolution" in domestic solar and renewables (heating, photovoltaic, and wind power) is taking some of the load off energy resources so that industry can continue to run. But so far no one has made a solar power plant that produces solar power panels - probably because the EROEI is insufficient.
DeleteIncreases in efficiency and locality of industry (why ship a box of parts when you can email a file and have it printed out on site as needed?) can extend the time until the crash, but it too would only be an extension not a freedom from constraints.
Affordable Fusion power may alter the possibilities for the future, as it could vastly increase the constraints of energy from mere lakes of petroleum as fuel to the entire global oceans of water as fuel. I don't think TPTB are suppressing it either, it would be in their best interests to give everyone enough cheap consumer goods (made with cheap power) and cheap energy to watch the boob tube and numb their minds, rather than have our current weakening system.
Imagine the hell that can be created with the addition of very-cheap centralized fusion power that can also be used to reform carbon sources into useful vehicle fuels. It will be the same kind of chicken-battery 250 square foot "compartments" (compact-apartments) that are being planned and implemented along regional rail routes (to transport occupants to their slave-cubicle jobs where their time will be occupied at minimum ground-space, and keep them off of the roads and golf courses).
DeleteThis is before the Matrix-style plug-in world kicks in for allegedly "free" people. Prisoners will get the plug-in hell first, if they don't get brain-wiped or organ-harvested. At least there is Order.
Do you want to hear about my dystopian future that is more likely?
pdxr13
Why herd them into cubicles? Can't they just work from home? And what are they doing that can't be replaced by a robot? Why are they "working"? Why isn't there drugs in the water in prison, to make prisoners docile? All those weed smokers and crack whores are dangerous! Sedate them. Less space and guards.
Deletepdxr13 - I expect that the dystopian future you bring up WILL be tried for, and may even be born but will die quickly from failure to adapt...
DeleteRigid structures (such as totalitarian police states) are prone to sudden drastic failure when the supporting environment changes.
Without cheap power the rigid police state that TPTB are slowly trying to implement in the USA is going to fail. Or any other change in environment (cheap desktop multi-material 3D printers could be one such change, or a truly anonymous internet, in a good way) Heck, even energy getting _too cheap_ could endanger the rigid police state.
Do we have a police state? I believe the Soviets or Nazi's would be embarrassed for us. Perhaps a security guard state?
DeleteI ran into an old friend at the grocery store and we chatted a moment about the common solution presented by people who don't think much: "technology" while holding the latest iPhone debt machine (waving like a magic wand). It isn't "frreeee", it's $699 or more over 24 months of contract that is over $100 mo. Oh, wait, you are getting $40 a month of "cellular plan servicing" so that's $60+ per month in phone and interest x24, so $1440 in "freeee!" iPwn7 handset with debt-risk over 2 years. My last 4 cars were less than $1400 each. I'll just keep using the Moto Razor from 2004 that still works fine (free pile, with charger!).
ReplyDeletepdxr13
Still can't figure out for the life of me why cells are so popular. If I broke down in my car and couldn't walk to a phone or service station, time to move to a less crime filled area. Unless you are a brain surgeon saving lives, you don't need one. Does $60 a month make people feel as smart as surgeons?
DeleteMy job provides a smart phone. It's the longest dog leash in the world, they, like the gov need to know what I'm doing at all times. Avoid it at all costs, I put mine in foil for long periods of time just to stick my finger up at them.
DeleteIf you refuse to answer your phone, the next step is cranial insertion. Or is that rectal? Whatever, it can't be good. Keep that phone to your ear as lower life forms blather on about drama queen crap, just so you can get brain cancer from the phone, so when they lay you off right before you need their medical insurance you get the maximum screwing. I swear, corporates actually take it personally when you need a living wage and want revenge. Course, they take it personally when you want half hours at minimum wage, too. They almost make Obammy look humanitarian in comparison.
Delete“Still can't figure out for the life of me why cells are so popular. If I broke down in my car and couldn't walk to a phone or service station, time to move to a less crime filled area.”
DeleteI still think that it's a good idea James, particularly in your area (And mine now once I make the move) where you have long stretches of desert for miles on end, unless of course you never venture out of town limits. You don't need a contract, just go with pre-paid and load minutes as you need them. Just make sure that you go with a service that works well in your area. Phone booths are actually disappearing, at least in my area.
I know I'm kind of beseeching the heavens, as yes, all booths are gone as the herd gave them up for status symbols. Dirty rotten whoring bastards, all of them!
DeleteAs a worker with a phone company in a rural area I can confirm public pay phones are disappearing EVERYWHERE. Dr Who's 'tardis' phone booth will stand out like a sore thumb in the next decade anywhere in the world. Cell phones are taking their place - where I live all the paved roads have @85+% cell phone coverage. If you break down, you use your cell phone to call a friend/neighbor, or local mechanic.
DeleteI have a cell phone leash from the company (of course). I also have back up CB's and walkie-talkies
Our town still has a few booths-well, on-the-wall-units rather than standalone booths. But then, we have an independent phone company that will screw us last rather than first.
Delete