BEER VIRUS 2
I would like to try to question the common assumption that China is desperate for American business and will kiss our ass because she needs to unload tons of plastic crap onto our shores in order to survive economically. I can't refute the myth, because we don't know China's strategic timeline. But I CAN guarantee you a jelly filled donut that China knows a hell of a lot more about running a country than Orange Man or Black Jesus combined ever did, and that she understands how dangerous that dependency is, if it is even still a problem. China looks to the future and plans.
Meanwhile, America keeps fornicating the small dog as she only focuses on the next quarterly bonus. To save one half cent on each item sold, to buy more hookers and blow, our Dear Leaders cling to JIT Inventory, which will act as the equivalent of an EMP detonating over Kansas. The only thing they learned from Y2K was that they got rich off of another economic bubble. I look at almost any item in my stockpile and I notice I have more in stock than the grocery store. On some things, more than all of them combined.
You do the math. Anyway, to continue with China, Europe and Africa combined almost total the amount of imports from China that America receives. That was from figures two to three years ago. Now, does anyone remember that trade war we are conducting with China? Anyone? Bueller? That means we have been getting LESS from China. At the same time, China expands via its Belt & Road the number of countries it is strengthening its economic ties with. While Russia trades natural gas for manufactured goods with her. Is it just me, or does it sound like China is detaching itself from us?
Those Treasury Bond holdings that China has? She reduced that substantially. The only reason she holds what she does is because she needs them to buy oil from the exporter nations still under the US hegemony. And those bonds are all very short term ( she got out of long term a very long time ago-no fool she. If a relative gave me a ten or twenty year bond, I would stock that with my toilet paper ). Every time Orange Man gloats in front of the camera how he is punishing China in the trade war, you should have been thinking, “oops! China is now even LESS reliant on us as we aren't buying more crap”.
When China stops buying any of our soy beans, I'm glad. We need to keep our food here, as well as stop importing any more Eaters. But that has a cost, in Chinese independence from us. And as China sees a manufacturing slow down from demand destruction, that too is less dependence. Those Corporate Clowns that lay everybody off to save a few bucks because more money must go to pay off debt? They are reducing the amount of paying consumers. Which means less imports from China. Which means Chinese Independence from us economically.
We are killing ourselves here, as usual. We are our own worst enemy. Granted, we may have zero options to do otherwise, but that isn't the point. The point is that we have given China no choice but to plan around not having us as a customer. The dependence has been reduced over the years. I don't think she is even worried about it any more. She might even be using the decoupling as a military weapon. Will she hurt herself? I don't know, will she? Or is it a great way to clean out her own deadwood, the overcapacity issue she has had for many years?
Much has been made of the lack of Chinese quality, and it is hard to argue with that. But perhaps that was intentional? After all, China CAN build quality, if that is what her customers demand. She builds the requests from crap to quality. Japanese started out after World War Two building flimsy plastic crap, and look where they are today. Not to imply Chinese will ever equal Japanese, as the Nips have a long standing cultural affinity towards perfection. Just that the Chinese learned from the best on jump starting a minor economy into the big leagues.
Now, if you were to look at business as war, strategically your industrial economy would look like a weapon. Use it to bring in capital to strengthen your economy, to defend it by playing the pliant fool. If you chose, deliberately, to make that plant and infrastructure lower quality, you could built it lightening quick and dirt cheap. It served its purpose, getting you from rice farming to building a world trade network that brought in the worlds wealth ( it is thought that China has WAY more gold than reported, just as the US has WAY less than propagandized ). China has once again fooled the world empire Rome into sending her all its gold.
You remember that little kerfuffle called the Opium War, don't you? England wanted all of China's silver ( a huge percentage of the worlds holdings ). She enlisted ALL the other industrial western powers in occupying China and draining her treasure. Do you think China is blind to her own history? She knows the value of industrialization as a weapon. All she did was “flip the bitch”, using the same weapon the westerners employed at one time. I can guarantee you that if any power understands Peak Oil, China does.
She understands the temporary nature of industrialism, as she has always understood the power of exporting goods she has in abundance for precious metals. “That She Has”. Let that be understood. She had very little oil. A good portion of the coal she had was used ( keep in mind, soft low energy coal produces mostly pollutants and has limited utility, and is about all that anyone has left in quantity ). She won't make our mistake of being ruled by the availability of oil. Or of England's reliance on both coal and North Sea oil.
It is easy to be caught up in American Exceptionalism. It is an easy way of denying reality, of pretending that our time hasn't passed into the twilight. It is also an illusion, anymore. The sooner you see that we are a washed up and denuded power, the quicker you see the trajectory we are on. Pretending China still needs us is American Exceptionalism. I WANT it to be true. But it isn't. Our collapse is baked into the cake, and if you know that you are prepared for our Balkanization and impoverishment. You don't have to like reality to understand its power over you. I'll continue tomorrow.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
note: DZ, thank you for the generous PayPal donation-who da man?
note: don't believe gold and silver production has fallen off a cliff? View this article ( HERE ) and look at the first chart in the article.
note: DZ, thank you for the generous PayPal donation-who da man?
note: don't believe gold and silver production has fallen off a cliff? View this article ( HERE ) and look at the first chart in the article.
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Thanks for the link to the gold and silver site. I had read that there was less silver being mined than gold and that silver was being lost over time but those charts made it much clearer. Once again you have nailed it!ReplyDelete
The chart took even me by surprise. I didn't realize the production collapse was THAT bad. I better go PayPal the guy now that I'm thinking of it. His work is sublime.Delete
Bare Virus. As in barely: think deeply at length of all of the barely functioning systems of larger 'Merican society, and the writ large bare subsistence levels of existence of a larger and growing population (s) of citizenry in full public display as well as ghettoed away into shadow existing. This kind of a bare virus will grow and slay any society or imposing empire as easily as the measly 10k standard flu deaths this year. Embrace the collapse, no one escapes.ReplyDelete
The collapse is already here, it just seems like it is still a decline. Any day can be the over the cliff day. Got wheat?Delete
One autist has the number of beer virus deaths in woo han at just under 20k. He has some argument based on something to do with crematoria consumables.Delete
Any number is believable at this point. China lies, the UN lies, the US lies.Delete
Continuing with the theme of the goldfish re-discovering the pretty castle every three seconds:ReplyDelete
Mad cow disease.
Chocolate, the latest health craze.
Mulatto with zero qualifications to catch a sub-prime car loan -- aka 'ghost' -- as MostPowerfulManInTheFreeWorld©.
Kanye and Kim re-decorating, again.
And chocolate is great for your oxidants... or anti-oxidants... or maybe it was pro-oxidants.
iGadget 11, a 'must-have'.
Can I have a cookie?
No cookies! You can have a biscuit. Good minion!Delete
Spot on Jim. China can absorb this and much more. Like making lemonade, when a power or state actually has command power of their systems, (unlike western limpwrists and mommy politicians) they can use a calamity as easily as a moral booster and power consolidator as a company picnic function.ReplyDelete
Once the plug is pulled, keystrokes entered, or switch thrown, as is the case of collapse initiating incidentals, new dynamics will alter everything and affect everyone.
The apocalyptic optics of latter generations of peasants grazing herds through empire ruins will occur in your A.O.
stay clear of the falling debris whilst scavenging during your collapse.
Especially skyscrapers. Easy to ambush you at the entrance, like flaming oil from atop the castleDelete
Urbanite preppers that absorbed Ragnar Benson city tactics. They will be scurrying around in pee cup technical cars, like airsoft league play. It is going to be a helluva b grade special effects freak show movie visuals this spicy times thing. Stock deep on the popcorn, 50 pound sacks at a restaurant supply store. Good times.Delete
Hmmm. Stocking popcorn rather than feed store corn, which I've had terrible luck getting dry enough that it doesn't mold. I need to price that.Delete
40cents a pound in bulkDelete
Yes, like such. It makes storable belly filler food after popping up big batches and bagging. Stuff your cheeks like rodents while peeking out from your b-pod periscope. Also works as a bird food for raising or baiting in close for hunting. Winning.Delete
I was thinking more of grinding for corn meal. But watching the collapse front row seat, popped corn on the side, is also an attractive optionDelete
I watched some military lecture. The guy recounted a story about how he provided armor guys info on Syrian technical robot tank with a GPMG mounted on it. Controlled through an x-box controller.Delete
Apparently the tank guys were laughing. Then he asked them how they thought they were going to drive their tanks down the narrow streets? How much did their tank cost to build? to run? He said that these technicals were made out of garages.
Not really pertinent for us, just got the thought when I read about Ragnars technicals.
I'm just going to ride around on my kangaroo. Grass is it's fuel
You need to learn your corns. Feed store corn is a type of soft, "dent" corn and yeah, is hard to store w/o mold. Popcorn is a type of flint corn (hard like flint, get it?) and dries quite well. There are also types of corn partway inbetween, that don't pop, they "parch" which means they partially pop.Delete
I've had good luck with "Producer's Pride" feed corn from Tractor Supply. 25 cents/lb in 50lb bags. Good quality and clean, but I am wary of mold so I oven dry it before vacuum sealing.Delete
Have you heard of parched corn? I just discovered it. Check it out. Very tasty, easy to make and a great high energy snack. Apparently you can also parch wheat, though I haven't tried that yet.
I parched, then ground. Had an issue with that way. Adding water tastes nasty and eating dry with a chase of water gags me. Not sure just parched wouldn't do a number on my teeth.Delete
Dingo-how hard would it be to get yourself a free machinegun that way? I think that is the major point of contention.Delete
You've got to parch your corn in plenty of butter or grease, then it just sliiiiiiiides right down!Delete
Deep fried is of course better. :)Delete
Good silver article link. Silver has much going for it as the regular person's extra wealth parking. A silver dime here and there or a tube of twenty 1oz with a windfall. The kids get silver rounds for Christmas.ReplyDelete
Wish I was living as a wild man like Demented Guy. Unfortunately I still work as a cog in Babylon. So I help out with Scouts that a few of my kids attend. About 40% is bureaucracy/Hitler youth/crazy adults. But I'll have to say that along with the kids, I always manage to learn something. The cliche knots of course, different outdoor cooking, some medical training taught by professionals, etc.
Most campouts are educational in the sense that you see how a mob of soft Americans do without being awash in comfort, entertainment and utilities.
It's true the first thing that goes is sanitation. I bring pump dispenser hand soap, hand sanitizer, toilet paper, paper towels and a few thick mil garbage bags.
Also, James I laughed when you were talking flashlights recently and wrote basically who the F carries one around on their Bat belt. Guilty, but have to say damned useful. I made a small leather pouch for a 1aa light and use it all the time. The point is, having a few items on your person are worth it. I can comfortably carry at least a Leatherman, light, back pocket bandanna and folding knife everday. Few people carry much on them outside of a wallet and phone.
I forget I'm spoiled here, high elevation and almost always a clear night. Easy to get around just by starlight, if you have your night vision. Yeah, I'm in town now, but I'm trying to stay proficient with not using a light when I can.Delete
Most of the lights utility is not so much navigating around at night, but stuff like looking under furniture for something, getting a good look at machinery or something else you're working on, checking a gun bore, finding something dropped at night, etc. The unexpected needs when a brief shot of illumination saves time and headaches.Delete
Yes. I carry a robust surefire or such brand powerful light whenever leaving the compound. I am not edc loaded down, just basics, they prove very handy when an oh shit need arises. I carry a smaller 3 aaa dinky harnor freight china light in pants pocket, even around the house. Instead of flicking on light switches, I can use them for intermittent short usage spot needs. Light discipline training is thus incorporated in movements and hermitage operations, since skynet is watching you and your domicile anyway.Delete
All Hail Our Skynet Overlords.Delete
9:40-point taken. I can't claim my system of going to fetch a flashlight every time for stated needs is superior. Just habit, placing a flashlight in designated areas.Delete
My boss is a Bat belter, and it seems to work well for him. Flashlight, folding knife, phone... I've always got a Swiss army knife on me and a flashlight nearby at least.Delete
I'm living in NerdLandia. :)Delete
Get a Streamlight Stylus Pro. No bigger then a pen, clips to your pocket, and it will surprise you how bright it is. And under $20Delete
For ONE flashlight? Does it come with your initials in gold?Delete
Dang. Just dang.ReplyDelete
"China knows a hell of a lot more about running a country..". Man,are smoking Jimson weed? The CCP doesn't know squat about running a country, they only know how to run an open air prison while having panicked dreams of peasants and pitchforks.
I'll be optimistic Ollie and say well run countries, especially nearly homogeneous ones, don't need gulags, neighborhood "committees" and a nearly total urban survelliance network with facial recognition. Knowhatimsayin'?
Trade war...."trade war we are conducting with China?...means we have been getting LESS from China".
Where do you get idea that volume of trade is decreased and fewer ships will unload low value plastic crap? The supposed "trade war" simply forced ChiCom's hand as regards pricing and currency manipulation. When faced with sanctions ChiComs settled for a lower profit margin. China ate the increased tariffs with barely a whimper.
It works like this...plastic item "A" will have maximum total revenue when priced at $5/unit. This represents equilibrium of volume and per unit price. Sure you could sell item at $5.50 but fewer people will buy and total revenue will decline.
On other hand, the cost to produce that item in US is $4 per unit while China produces it at $2.
US mfgr thus has $1 profit ($5-$4) while China has $3 profit ($5-$2). Trump simply told China pay "X" in tariffs which increase the cost or simply be excluded altogether. The tariff increase still allows China to make a profit just not as high as previous.
Tariffs are like a dial from 0 to 10 as opposed to a switch, either on or off.
In pure economic terms China (or anyone) will keep selling products all the way to where costs equals revenue. As long as they cover their fixed costs the factory will spit out more. Basic stuff Jim.
You say,"if any power understands Peak Oil, China does." Oh baloney. If they know so damn much and are smarter than US then why are they replicating a version of SoCal car culture? My aunt and uncle went to China in early '80s. Not a car in site in Shanghai, but MILLIONS of bikes though. I dare you to sensibly tell US minions it is same today. Probably trillions of dollars spent on imported oil dependent highways, interchanges, gas stations etc etc by China in past 30 years.
China doesn't understand shit about supposed Peak Oil. If they did know they won't be building and selling more Buicks there than in entire US mkt.
On the other hand, maybe China does know about Peak Oil....and concluded it's just bullshit.
All that air pollution ain't just from coal fired generating plants.
Last. You mention, "those bonds are all very short term (she [China] got out of long term a very long time ago."
Well no crap!
Interest rates have fallen consistently since Volker in '80s. Every-damn-body around the world knows central banks have pushed down rates. If you, as a Treasury official, know the policy of Central Bank is to pursue ever decreasing rates for next 40 years then why in the name of everything Holy would you offer long term (higher rate) bonds?
"F" me with a rusty chainsaw sideways (h/p Aesop).
China doesn't get to decide how many and what duration T-notes & T-bills are OFFERED at Treasury auction. Sec of Treasury (Goldman) decides that.
Trust me. I worked with Treasury sales. Sometimes client wanted "X" but Uncle Sam said, 'sorry, only "Y" is available.
The volume of long dated bonds is small. The previously issued long bonds matured and few or no long bonds issued in their place. Uncle Sam and EVERY treasury official in the world says "hell no, no long duration instruments"
Haven't you heard of Europe's NEGATIVE interests rates for past 4(?) years or BoJapan ZERO rate?
You're WAY off Lord Bison but the new shampoo is butt kicking :)
The wild meadow scent is very nice.
Let's contrast how Obammy ran the country, to China. No one is running it now, except the bankers. Which is even worse. Volume of world trade is decreasing. Check the dry Baltic. Now check retail store closures. Yet we are still buying as much crap? Middle class lifestyles include a car. How long those cars are fuelled is of no concern to the gov. Not their problem. The roads were just public works projects, and can easily go back to bike paths. And no, I think customers said Hell No to long bonds. If the Federal Reserve is so all powerful, please explain the liquidity crises. Crisis averted, I'm still always right AND my hair remains perfect. LOLDelete
ChiComs have tens of thousands of Muj Uighars in detention just for being Muj. The halfling didn't resort to that with Whitey, now did he?Delete
Retail stores???....is that still a thing? Sounds so 2002 from Shrub " go out and shop!"
You way overestimate China. Have you ever even lived (or at least visited) there? - or anywhere in Asia? There's a goodReplyDelete
reason why virus outbreaks begin in China and other shithole countries. Try taking a shit in a Chinese public squat toilet with no running water. Ever hear of crotchless paints? Millions of children don't wear diapers. Is it any wonder that the R-naught of 2019-nCoV is over 4.0 and yet not nearly that in Western Civilization? Hey, why don't you have a nice helping of half-cooked bat soup and rare cockroach with a side of shit spattered crivet cat and some sugar coated banna all prepared with unwashed hands? You call those dirty f%*ckers smart?
Don't get me started on China, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao, Burma, India et. al... I actually lived there and travelled and did business. I know how many sets of books they keep; how lawless and corrupt; and how totally Ffffed up their economies are... China at 300% debt to GDP. And that's the offical number. China has closed capital accounts (and accounting) for a reason. The number of bad banks surpasses the number of ghost cities. A book could be written on the many reasons why China is in deep doo-doo - up to their necks. If the virus doesn't get them the crack-up boom will.The crack-up boom in China is going down in history as the biggest ever. Western Civilization's cash and burn will be greater ( because of Euroland Marxists, but America (especially parts of White America) might go on a lot longer than you think. You're right about one thing: "your timing is terrible"... So just remember that as you crawl back into your hidy-hole and fondle for buckets of wheat.
Long-term I agree that the American Empire will fall. It has to. All empires do. But America still has more than enough resources to manage a decline into serfdom before completely collapsing...
Meanwhile, keep on stockpiling. Having insurance just in case the Black Swan lands can't hurt. At least you're right about that.
I was stationed in Korea. I think you are blinded by American Exceptionalism. I love most of my country, at least DeplorableLand, but I refuse to be any more blinded by her than I have to be. At this point, the US is held together by excess oil and a prayer. You give the system too much credit with any other factor.Delete
That’s why I quit watching television Jim. It’s all one giant shitfest these days :DDelete
Oh, I agree. I've gone years before with no TV and don't miss it. I just use it as a substitute for an evening cocktail, a way to relax and not think, recovering from the day of writing and research. I could that by watching movies, but the NOL prefers the shows. And I want to make her happy, so...Delete
Nol's the chink in our armor. lolDelete
You'll perhaps note that there was a HUGE kerfuffle between England and the US over intellectual rights violations, 19th century. I've written on China's lack of firearms previously. It wasn't lack of creativity, it was lack of nitrates. And how do you think Americans will wipe their asses after Canadian wood isn't exported for worthless currency? This isn't about world domination-it is about smiting the enemy, then retreating back to the homeland once external threats are removed. Don't pay attention to what I write because I'm so awesome, but because it is all on the final exam ( hat tip to Aesop ).ReplyDelete
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Yeah, Taco Tuesday here also. Splurged on store bought taco shells ( as opposed to corn tortillas ), my version of throwing caution to the wind and celebrating with luxuries. Tomorrow, I will pry a steak out of the freezer. Carefully hoarded tough cuts on sale.Delete
Be careful - I hear that Corona beer can give you Lime Disease ;-)Delete
LOL Good one!Delete
Reminds me of what I read about European trade with the Orient (sidebar, Medieval maps had the Orient at the top of the map. Hence the origin of use of orient as in "orient the map"). So where was I? Yes, the Europeans bought fine China, spices and silk using Gold and Silver. Then got upset because the Orientals wouldn't use Gold and Silver to buy European goods. Maybe Europeans have always been retarded? I mean, the Spanish got a once in a epoch windfall when they looted South America and blew it all and ended up with nothing to show for it.ReplyDelete
Time preference. We collectively mock bicycle americans for their low time preference yet I wonder if the Chinese and Jews do the same with us? Planning out generations into the future and sticking with it whilst most of us Europeans are flat out planning for next pay day?
Whilst I'm at it. Those surgical masks sure are hard to get your hands on. Maybe there's a lesson in that?
Sure there's a lesson. Be prepared yesterday, in case today is the last day before the collapse tomorrow. You are correct about Europeans and short attention spans. Is Bezos jewish? He seemed to really have this nailed from the beginning, decades out.Delete
The US is being gradually walled off, in the same way that the misfits and retards always got gradually herded to their own special corner of the playground.ReplyDelete
Trade war with China, Russia thinks we're idiots (with good cause) the good, intelligent people in the Middle East are about ready to decide they might as well throw their hat in with the extremists because the US lumps them all together, more Mexicans* are leaving the US than coming in, and tourism is even down and what few clued-in young Americans there are, are leaving if they can.
Yeah, what could go wrong?
*If you come from south of the US border, you're a "Mexican". Even if you speak Portuguese instead of Spanish. Even if your actual country hates Mexico. Not only that, but if you're Filipino, Palestinian, basically anything brown, you get to be "Mexican" too, if that's adventageous to you.
I wonder if Belize ever widely adopted English as the de facto language. If so, you would think they would have immigrated more, if they were bilingual. You would think they could get into a higher paying job than just cutting grass. I have no idea, you just never hear of immigrants from there, really.Delete
Belt and road is all about sourcing raw materials for China and the Chinese people. They'll take them if they can't buy them.ReplyDelete
Isn't that how most trade deals work? Bribes or bombs, your choice. It will be the same PADelete
What is it with this Taco Tuesday shit.ReplyDelete
Damned if the LOL doesn't follow along with the mandate of tacos on Tuesday's !
Talk of food boredom ?
I've been eating the same basic crap for like forty years. Guess that's what happens when neither the Mrs. Or I care about fancy food...just fuel here not pleasure.
It was just an accident we felt like tacos and it was a tuesday. I need cabbage on a taco, or it just doesn't taste right, and sometimes we don't have cabbage. I never eat dinner on a rotating menu. Doing the first two meals that way is bad enough.Delete
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I used to watch TV or read while I was eating ( or drive, at work ), so I was distracted enough not to taste the slopDelete