Monday, July 1, 2019

over the olduvai gorge

The Olduvai Theory simple states that the Oil Age is going to last about a century, from 1930 to 2030, and that the production of oil will be the same on both dates. This isn't some cockeyed theory some tinfoil hat wearing dude pulled out of his ass. Since 1979 global total energy use per person has been declining. Since the 1960's, global oil discovers have peaked. Let me repeat that one for the Fracking Fags. Fifty years ago, FIFTY, was when we found the most oil. Every discovery since then has been much smaller.
We are now at the point where we are using far more oil every year than the new oil we discover. Richard Heinberg, who among most of the Peak Oil folks is pretty friggin Optimistic Ollie ( I shudder to think these people actually believe their Happy Outcome hype, preferring to think it just helps them sell more books ), gives the US fracking industry not much past about 2022 before it crashes and burns. And if you cannot do math, a fracking well always declines after four years, compared to a conventional oil well of FORTY years production-that is some bad math.
No one is denying your pretty precious princess pony Fracking Industry didn't save our asses. It did. I do not deny that. After global CONVENTIONAL peak oil in 2005 ( your pretty boy Roy up in Idaho was trying to tell us peak oil was set for 2030. He must have read the same issue of NatGeo I did, while waiting in the doctors office for a scan to detect brain activity ), we had a tiny little thing called the housing bubble which imploded the derivatives market. Fracking oil saved us from that just as Alaskan oil saved us from OPEC.
Do you know how much oil we get out of Alaska now, a mere thirty some odd years later ( a 39% decline in just the last ten years )? Two hundred and change thousand barrels a day, after peaking at one point five million. Not long after global peak production, Mexico went from our #3 provider to now importing oil for its own use. I'm firmly convinced that ethanol was not JUST a farming mega-corporation boondoggle but the US starting to use food as a weapon ( see Tortilla Revolt and Arab Spring ).
Because when energy use per person declines ( and for humps sake, do you people not realize that population grown within the US means that each of us has less energy to use every year? Energy use is economic activity. LESS energy is LESS economic activity and LESS economic activity means the economy is SHRINKING. The only growth industry here is statistical lies, rapine and pillage ), if some countries want to increase energy supply they have to steal it from others. We didn't do too great stealing the oil in Iraq, Iran, Yemen or Libya, but at least we forced production declines there.
Perhaps the plan was to return at a later date and start production again, but of course as I pray you understand by now, Libya was our last successful military adventure stabilizing the PetroDollar. We lost the economic war after that, which was quickly followed by a decline in military power. Could we kick the ass of any Bear or Dragon power in conventional conflict? I don't think so, but if you buy into the whole Hegemonic Sole Superpower 'Murica Uber Alles thing, whatever. Even if we can best the other nuclear powers, we can't counter insurgency.
And those are the boys keeping us from pumping oil ( well, in Libya and Iraq, with Yemen to follow as its hot war subsides. Iran is held back by economic sanctions, but I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't some US cyber war there ). Africa has proven that it is impossible to pump oil in a war zone, for decades past. Now we have proof in Iraq and Libya. And yet, somehow, hope springs eternal that Earth is a hollow ball just filled with a petroleum center. Just waiting for us to drill, baby.
The war for energy has seen more and more areas cut off from sharing “America's Oil”, and more and more the locals are pissed and fighting back. That means, Spanky, that THE OIL STAYS IN PLACE. And that is just military conflict opposing the long trend of shutting out consumption competition. There is the economic factor. If you are all Ray Charlies up in your tree fort accompanied by your pet unicorn, not only do you think the US has the bestest military but that ours is also the Indispensable Economy. You actually believe government statistics.
I congratulate you on doing your due diligence, but you are falling for the Long Con. When all corporations lie about their success ( one set of books for the buyer, one for the IRS and one for yourself ), the best strategy is to avoid the stock and bond market altogether. When the government lies about everything, your best bet is to assume the very worst is happening. The government refused to admit Agent Orange was bad until most of the vets died off from it, reducing the financial hit ( both as compensation and related medical ).
By the time the government and its lapdog media admit to Peak Oil, we will ALREADY have run out. You see, it isn't JUST about Peak Oil anymore. Not even close. Peak Oil only meant the easy oil was gone and production was going to start declining. Peak Oil has been ZERO fun, as we all know, but that was the easy part. The problem now is the Olduvai Theory. That is when crap runs out, yo. THAT is the scary crap. That is when it gets real, when after stealing oil from the rest of the world, we start stealing from our own countrymen. Sound familiar? Continued tomorrow.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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  1. Well for sure, I know that I'm awesome lol. On average I only buy $50 to $100 through Amazon each month and always clk onto your blog before I go to Amazon via cicking on whatever they post on your page...hhopefully you get the credit doing it that way ? I know it ain't much and after all You've done for us I should do more...
    Maybe my lame ass will get a job ? Ha ha, nobody hires cripples lol. Even tho I'm getting better all the time , still not employable in my areas of skill...I give a whole new definition to the word slow ha ha...
    Every time I hear someone talking about getting a two wheeler for cheap transportation on your blog asshole puckers and I think don't do it friend. Anyway , not on the highway out with all those idiots in cars !
    After more than fifty years of riding and racing off road motorcycles. Never thought I'd advise against them...
    No matter...soon everyone will be walking when the oil is gone.

    1. Don't discount $2-$4 a month donation. I'm pleased as punch to get a buck. Everything else is gravy. And, I'm trying to slowly ease back on my needs to go hand in hand with the collapsing economy ( the long trend is less donations ), so a little goes a longer way.

  2. This just in:
    "Largest oil reserves discovered in Brazil!"

    "Russkie oil reserves large enough to last through 2080!"

    "New Alaskan oil fields expected to quadruple production!"

    "Oregon farmer believes everything in TheMainStreamMedia, prefers not to be called 'simple'!"

    1. They would never lie to us! Hooray, I love everyone!

  3. Following. The enviromental fronts are actually globalists and deep state shills. That push with carbon taxes, co2 credits, mandating green power, etc is to phsychologically nueter down the early oil growth examples and gluttony mindsets. As an example Obama's coal killing caused Wyoming population to drop year over year numbers, even with immigrant hordes pouring in from the national borders. Huh? Example of what the overlords will do and then some to everyone when oil / energy collapses and triage of the remaing dripple flow is enacted.

    Stock up now! Stay Frosty.

    1. Yep, entering the last days of deep and cheap stockpiling.

  4. I just had to stop reading half way through.
    Just so much factually WRONG & many of your conclusions are superficial and shallow (like an early 20th C. oil well)
    Sounds like we need to bring in a frack crew to open up your gray matter. Honestly!

    Do I care that per capita oil use declined??? Not too much. We made up for that with human derived efficiency. For instance, my car easily gets 60% BETTER mpg than the Chrysler New Yorker my folks had in '69. I still get from A to B in comfort and same time. In fact, my car @ 90k miles has fewer mechanical problems than any of my folks '70s-80s cars. Just fyi..tansportaion, in all forms, is about 65% of US oil usage.
    Same type of efficiency improvements all across entire economy. Ever hear of Moore's Law in computer industry?
    Human innovation & improvement ever since....wait for it....2 sticks and FIRE! Aargh!

    You don't know jack about well productive life (there's a pun in there). Just stop with ideas that well drilled today only lasts 4 years compared to some mythical 40 year life span from decades ago. I've witnessed entire fields mothballed for decade or more only to be reworked and producing. Some fields mothballed more than once.

    The frack wells of today are not only sources of crude they are sources of info on the underlaying geology of the field. All the high tech data gathered during exploration and production is being sliced and diced by supercomputers (yes! Honest Injun supercomputers) in Houston E&P offices. The volumes of hourly readings and data gathered today are the dividends of tomorrow. New reserves being discovered every month.

    You're getting your facts from NatGeo?
    Yet you bitch about some sort of conspiracy of lies from gov't/industry when production numbers from acknowledged sources are served to you on silver platter. FFS Jim! Speechless.

    You don't think US .mil could take out Russia? We would clean their clocks in about 10 days if they dont resort to nukes. And no, I'm not a rah! rah! guy
    Both Gulf Wars were demonstrations of utter slaughter of heritage Soviet equipment and doctrine. Complete and full spectrum dominance.
    You say..."well that was 20+ yrs ago..." Russian doctrine has only marginally altered in intervening years. Inability of Russian industry to spool up industrial base for large scale tech is absolute proof. The entire decade of '90 was retrograde. Not only did things stop in Russia almost everything went BACKWARDS.
    They keep producing slightly modified '80s style equipment (sales to 3rd world) just to keep people employed. Damn little battlefield altering improvements. As for the touted super, duper hypersonic missles....puleez! Stop pimping for Raytheon. How many "Missle gap" stories can be pulled over your eyes?
    Also, skilled/educated people are leaving Russia in droves. Human capital draining away.
    You worried about .mil & insurgency failures? Loosen the rules of engagement, unleash the hounds. 'nuff said.

    Then you went full retard..."Africa has proven that it is impossible to pump oil in a war zone, for decades past".
    I'll just remind you & readers that Cabinda (Angola) & Nigeria still producing and shipping high grade crude to int'l mkts. No war in Cabinda and manageable problems in Nigerian oilfields down south away from Islamists.
    Gabon has come on war.
    Never go full retard, Jim.

    Then you state..."We didn't do too great stealing the oil in Iraq, Iran, Yemen or Libya, but at least we forced production declines there".
    If your oil apocalypic thinking is correct....then why would TPTB take ANY risk is upsetting world production? Why would they want to bring about production decline? After all the bankers want control, right?. Wouldn't production shortfalls hasten collapse?
    You sound like the Shiite mullahs and their eschatological policies....bring on doomesday so that the Mahdi returns and purifies the world.

    Can't wait for tomorrow....

    1. Well, if you DID stop reading half way through, why read tomorrows? :) We keep going round and round on this, and I know I can't change your mind. The NatGeo dig was against others accepting its premise that Peak Oil wasn't until 2030, which was reported right about the time of real Peak. I can't think of the name right now, but there is a Law that states the more efficiencies are realized, the more the resource in question is consumed. And don't forget, to save money the cars being made NOW, are all using really crappy parts. We are returning to 100k max cars again. Look, no hate here. I understand you are an Optimistic Ollie and a die-hard Fracking Fag. That is okay. I don't need Yes-Men to tell me I'm right. No one agrees with me on junk land or giving up autos or selling their semi-auto's. I'm used to being shat on. Just try to ignore my fanaticism if it doesn't agree with you. Others ignore the above semi's or auto's. Few even agree with me that Peak Oil is in the rearview mirror. I can only live my convictions as an example to others and hope for the best. Cheers.

    2. Sounds like the above anonOO above is likely Rawles in disguise Jim lol. Even you get trolls...
      Or likely a sand box remf that believes those plastic pos are the ultimate weapon ?
      I guess he missed the point that in a conventional war we'd get our asses handed to us on their turf. Can you say logistics and real all out war including emp which wipes most of our electronic toys.
      Sounds like a Faux spews , General Bone Spurs advocate to me . If the economy is so great and oil so plentiful then why is the price still so high ? Why on earth does someone like that bother reading you Jim ?

    3. If you stopped reading halfway through, why read tomorrow's excellent example of journalistic excellence disguised as witty blather with a dash of NatGeo referencing for that hint of 'Eddie Bauer' good taste and pinky-up refinement?

      Anon()(), if I were a wagering person, I might bet you are BUSTED!

      I happen to think Bison is 360-degrees whack 101% of the time, yet I'm prepping for non-fuel days. Nobody accuses me of dumbness... more than once. Or twice.

    4. Spud-it is a wonder to me I'll have a regular reader so optimistic, but I don't mind. Keeps me on my toes. And watch those REMF references! :)
      LM-what's it like to ONLY be accused of being a dumbass once or twice? Must be nice :D

    5. Of course, we have a large cadre of combat tested men now, so there is that. But the ships bringing over supplies will crash into other ships, so, no logistics for them. And I wouldn't count on tech saving us. The only thing tech has done for the civilian economy is save companies money. In the military, it just made companies money. It is a piss poor substitute for trained men, and for more men. If the tiny nation of Israel could defeat Arab armies, I don't think we should be bragging we as the only superpower also beat one.

    6. I will relate something a elderly contract worker with the military told me about 2 years ago he was about 75 years old and was training young enlisted army how to disarm old school IED's. He stated that the current enlisted solders were the best he had ever seen. However, he stated that Obammy had destroyed the officer core and the leadership was real bad.

    7. Leadership has been bad a LONG time. Lincoln sure did staff them for political reliability. I can see the enlisted being some of the best, as look what they willingly volunteer for in the combat zone. Want to bet that is mostly White males? Diversity hires are just as bad anywhere.

    8. I don't know anything about the technology of fracking oil. I have read a few books about conventional oil such as "Confronting Collapse" and "The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies". I believe in the Peak Oil theory.

      I believe the American public is being conned with stories of good oil production here in the USA. I have read other bloggers discuss the financial manipulations of fracking, saying that it is actually a net loss. But it is being done to fool people into complacency. Same is being done by using corn for ethanol. Very low return on investment.

      As for the military. The United States is screwed by the trans, faggot, women military as the above person stated. Also our military technology is high tech but mostly useless and easily destroyed by an EMP.

      Lord Bison I like your ideas and writing. You go for the big picture. The future is uncertain. Prepping is good.

    9. I trust you read:
      If you want way too much information of fracking, the Amazon book Snake Oil:
      Thanks, I'll try to keep being awesome :)

    10. Oops, sorry. That Amazon link was the paper book. Here is Kindle:

    11. To all concerned...when I say I only read 1/2 way thru Jim's post that is called DRAMATIC injection of hyperbole.
      Of course, I had to pick myself up off the floor after 1/2 way but I did endeavor to finish.

      Seriously Spud? You know nothing about me outside of what I've posted here.Stick to points addressed. Amazing you know my about my opinion on ARs, Rawles and .mil service.
      BTW nice pirouet you did there as regards Sov equip and tactics getting wiped off the board in GW I & II. I supply you demonstratable facts and you blow smoke in return. Back at ya, bud. Dance on.
      Spud, you think oil prices are high? Good God man. Gas is CHEAP. I suggest you find a better paying job if $2.40-$2.75 gas is pinching your wallet. If you're in Cali paying north of $4.00....well, you have other issues. Lots of other issues....

      Large Marge..."busted" uh, where?, with what? C' me that sub-Saharan Africa is producing LESS high quality crude (in volume) than they were 15 yrs ago...10 yrs ago.

      And Marge, don't go knockin' Eddie Bauer...loved it when they and Ford teamed up for the Eddie Bauer trim package in SUVs.
      I'm gonna be drivin' thru the apocalypse in style and air conditioning, drinking my Starbucks with pinky finger waving, dontcha know!

      Anon 4:12. Saddam was the Sovs BEST customer. He paid CASH! He didn't get "end of production run" or "factory seconds". For an army to be Sov equipped the Iraqis were almost on par with East Germans. Just talking equipment, not troops or skill set.
      In GW I, when US armor did the BIG "left hook" from a standing start the Iraqis were so outclassed (even with Sov advisors) they ended up dying by the hundreds EVERY hour. US armor and Arty had close to a 30 to 1 positive kill factor on Iraqi tanks and APCs.
      I'll remind you of the "highway of death" on the road of retreat out of Kuwait the Iraqis used. Almost everything in that miles long convoy of hundreds of vehicles died. Vultures and jackals avoided it...nothing left to eat.
      It was Biblical..."the abomination of desolation".

      I don't dispute the brutality of Russian boot camp nor toughness of their troopers. But ask yourself, are you going to risk yourself for "comrades" and a system that allowed a friend of yours to be beaten to death? Not much Espirt de Corps there.
      Toughness doesn't confer effectiveness.
      Desertion and chronic alcoholism are no way to run a modern army.

      The Russians aren't 10 feet tall...never where. They died when they ran out of ammo & they will again when their screwed up industry back home and transport system can't deliver.

      Seventy years of Communism will take as long to recover from. Putin knows this & the people too.That's why he keeps his .mil on short leash.
      Now is his time to rebuild Rodina, the Motherland.

      Lastly, Jim..."fracking fag"? How about "fanboy" instead. Deal?
      No problem with junkland or squirreled away food (rice, please). I'll even yield some on semis but dont go touching my Ruger 10/22.

      Don't fret Jim, all of us reading this blog will be in our eternal slumber after a long life before oil dies in USA. Can't say about rest of world but we'll be last people standing. Bruised a bit no doubt, but standing.

    12. Fracking Fag isn't directed at you-I've been using it for some time. A bit on the harsh side, granted. I can TRY to switch over as it might be a bit too harsh. I just can't promise anything. Once I'm on a tear, converting rant to screen I don't do well self-censoring beyond fact checks. I hope you are correct and I'm wrong about everything. I'll gladly eat that crow even without salt or hot sauce. The problem is while I'm forty years on in survivalism reading, a solid fifteen of those are Peak Oil and the passage of time doesn't seem to do anything to change my mind. To solidify my views, Amazon is seemingly Thought Policing that very subject from its search and recommendations. Just saying. If I'm not keeping it civil enough, feel free to berate me. I'm in Full Pessimist Mode, but I shouldn't act like only my viewpoint is valid ( even if the blog is pretty clear on what you have in store ). Peace.

  5. is that you Bureacrat? lol. Peace