Sunday, July 28, 2019

food for thought 2


FOOD FOR THOUGHT 2
I know most of you hate me, wiping the crack of my buttocks with your delusions, wishful thinking and half baked plans ( I have plenty of half baked plans. The difference is I don't think they will really work, while you think yours are a good idea ). I'm sorry for that, but I don't think you are hurting anyone but yourself by neglecting my e-mail newsletter as a result of your resentment. Who doesn't have e-mail? Even if you are part of the ZuckerHumper Borg on Facebook, surely you don't communicate with companies over your bills through Social Media?
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If more than 3% of you got my e-mail newsletter ( see instructions at the end of each article in my contact info ), you could continue to follow my brilliance if I ever got censored, AND as a bonus get the odd extra article ( I'm not as prolific as I was, adding length to blog articles rather than creating more newsletter articles ). Like the one where I covered a scary real life example of the hideousness that is JIT inventory. Despite your hate, I'll relent and fill you in. See, that is how desperate I am for your love and approval.
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A town of 18k, in a county of 45k ( newsletter subscribers, my first numbers might have been slightly off. These here should be more accurate ), has in half its groceries stores, a whole 25 pounds of lentils. Barely over two pounds per thousand people. When I went two weeks later it was worse-15 pounds, half the towns grocery stores. Is it so hard to conceptualize that if ONE person in town decided to stock up on that one bean, the supply is effectively wiped out?
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And I stopped at half the stores not because I wanted to avoid the other two which have much higher prices, but because I ran out of free storage containers. If even I of limited income don't care about the cost but want to stockpile, what chance is there of any supply if anyone else wants to panic buy? I don't even NEED them, I just want them because I plan of grinding them for gruel and pintos are too hard. What if the Latino population ran out of pinto's in their mad panic? If EACH bean was at JIT inventory levels, no amount of shelf stock stands a chance.
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Only one person per thousand is allowed to stockpile before the crowd panics. And that one person is only allowed one or two pounds. And that is only if that one person isn't panicking but only is slightly, slowly increasing his stocks. This is how brutal JIT is. It was NEVER close to this bad when I has shopping for Y2K. Not even close. I had two shopping carts and I couldn't wipe out the shelves even as I was trying to pile them as high as possible. And when I came back the next night ( after dark, AFTER anyone else who wanted to was most likely to shop ), I did the same thing again.
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What a difference twenty years makes. Wal-Mart, THE mass quantities store, has crap for inventory. So every other chain has even less ( about half as much at Kroger, on obscure items like lentils. One tenth as much on expensive items like butter ). If food inventories were much more back when Wal-Mart perfected its “Rolling Warehouse” model ( no time to sit in warehouses, immediate shipping nightly ), and so much less now when trucks don't drop off as often, what does that mean?
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To me, it means, simply, that there is less food to be had. Yes, Wally is desperate and cannot keep as much inventory on hand, nor can it afford daily but rather weekly deliveries ( I surmise, from observation-I know I could be wrong on this ). But if everyone has the same lower levels on inventory, and everyone is practicing JIT, less food is out there ( actually, it isn't less food but increased population, so there is no surplus as there was ). That means that we cannot have a few extra fractions of a percent of the population recreate the buying frenzy of twenty years ago. This has nothing to do with the midwest flooding, and everything to do with the flooding from the southern border ( and their propensity to breed once here ).
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It also isn't just because I used an obscure food item that I'm painting a gloomy picture ( cherry picking as it were ). THE epitome of food storage food, wheat kernels, are just as scarce. The most the feed store ever had on hand was about sixteen sacks. One sack per thousand people in town. At best. Usually it is half that. And that is for chicken feed. I doubt many preppers ( the town has LDS'ers, who I am sure cannot lower themselves to livestock feed for the collapse ) are after that supply besides myself.
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But most folks will shop at Wally for food stores. So, to another example. Wally is below inventory even from 2009. In all items, but especially in food-rolling shortages are normal, and they were not back when oil was $150 a barrel and the economy just saw mass unemployment spike. Yes, that means the economy is worse. Wal-Mart is a canary in the coal mine. But Wal-Mart also sells the most groceries. 25%, to Krogers 10% ( Publix is 3%, for you good old boys down South ). 35% of all grocery stores have a proven marked reduction in inventory, and you know the others are just as bad.
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And, need I add, grocery stores are doing better than restaurants. Some of the biggest fast food places are hurting, and I submit to you the primary cause is a shift away from eating out. It has to be. Shrinking disposable income demands cutting the number of meals you eat out. So grocery stores de facto gain extra business yet at the same time are in huge financial trouble. They have little choice but to cut quality in their higher profit areas ( deli, bakery ), cut staff and reduce inventory which is not immediately problematic.
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You need to eat. You are getting poorer and don't cherry pick shop around as much as you'd like ( unless you are magic like me and live in a small town and transport by bike-eat me, bitches! ), so you substitute buy. Empty shelves don't really cost you lost business ( your competitors are just as bad if not worse, a race to the bottom ). Staff is usually useless so in the cheaper stores lack of service is almost expected. Everyone is incentivized to cut inventory ( except the Yuppie Scum hoity toitie stores, saving money by drastically cutting quality and reducing shelf space to afford to keep those shelves full for “customer satisfaction” ).
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You must panic buy now, because lack of inventory means it will be a longer more drawn out endeavor. At the very first sign of others joining you, the game is up. The US population is only up 25% from Y2K. The food inventory is down far more than that. I would wild ass guess at least half. There is far less wiggle room for food prepping. Do not delay.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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note: bless you, WC, for the PayPal donation!
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34 comments:

  1. Yes. The ordering and inventory computer a.i. systems have been highly advanced for profit and efficiency all the way through the whole macro seed to consumption flow. Hell, the feds had to finally spread out snap food card payments over a ten day stretch to give ghetto zombie onslaught pressure relief to retailers. The trucks are running regularly now because of fresh perishables deliveries as a routine route cycle. They are light on loads as it is just hand cart loads instead of old school industrial pallet sized loads, in kinda like a beach landing bigly quantities.

    We are all so screwed hard and vigorously, as food is weapon number (1) one.

    Stay frosty.

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    1. I'm surprised our Wally here hasn't gone to the "new" model. Shelves half as high, only three quarters as long. Even LESS food. I think the old "three days from empty shelves" is now more like "three hours".

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  2. “Some of the biggest fast food places are hurting, and I submit to you the primary cause is a shift away from eating out.”


    Following the job lay off, I almost never eat fast food anymore. But when I was working regularly, I often ate fast food. Even then (About 4 years back now) most meals were in the $6 to $7 range. Yes, there was the dollar menu (Which I ate from) but most people buy the better meals, well because, they taste much better. There was only immigrants working those jobs, without a white kid in sight. Some might say that those are crappy, low paying jobs, that only immigrants will do, but the thing is, they’re really not. Here in Commiefornia, I do believe that minimum wage is now $12 per hour. And it goes up a dollar a year until it is $15 (Signed by Gavin Newsom. The same dude that discontinued my 83 year old democrat voting aunt’s free heart medication by giving medicare to illegals; suck it Auntie Cara!) Yes, it is a low wage if you have a mortgage in such a high cost of living, leftwing state, but in most places this isn’t so bad of a wage.

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    1. Remember Obammy's Death Panels? Your Gavin bro just got the idea from him-genocide geriatrics.

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  3. Love and AppreciationJuly 28, 2019 at 9:18 AM

    Lord Bison, I love and approve of you. I am a woman so don't worry...

    I already get your email newsletter. I enjoy reading it. Yes everyone should sign up so we can stay in touch in case Bison's blog is banned.

    Also there are some blog owners who comment here. Maybe you could set up an email newsletter for your readers.

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    1. I think if I had one of the professional e-mail newsletters you could sign up for through WordPress, it would gain more readers. I just can't figure out how to use that platform, so tough noogies, people. Christ, I'd hate to think anyone was relying on a paper magazine through the mail anymore.

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    2. Even WordPress isn’t safe anymore Jim. It used to be one of the few that you could count on not to censor, but that’s the exact platform that Chateau Heartiste was using, and he wasn’t even that radical, and they dropped him.

      You almost need to go to an offshore service/server, in order to have any free speech, and try to pick a country that isn’t very PC. But that’s getting tougher by the day it seems, as the west has polluted the entire world with its SJW filth. Look at Puerto Rico. One would have guessed that it was a country with traditional values, but look what happened to the governor of that country, just for speaking the truth (The un-pc truth, but the truth none the less). Ironically enough, many of the former communist countries seem to have more rights than we do here in the west today. Most other countries do not have the same gun rights, but soon enough, that will be a reality here as well.

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    3. No, I wasn't under any illusions it was free speech approved. I was referring more to the ease and more professional look of signing up for e-mail on that platform. My web site, DomainNameSanity, doesn't even try to hide their ability to censor you if they choose "we may cancel anyone's at any time for any reason". Words real close to that. Let's hope Ronald Reagan's family doesn't try that crap on their e-mail service. If so, I hope he haunts their asses.

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  4. Not to mention that on hand stock of real foods is reduced by more and more shelf space dedicated to high margin, processed, boxed, pop tart-class crap foods. But our brain damaged population of fatties definitely seem to prefer such fodder.
    And, as I've mentioned before when you bring up the crucial JIT issue, it's not just food. If essentials such as grain grinders, water filters, available physical silver, etc were suddenly soight after by even 2% or less of the US population, supply would disappear for a long, long time.
    As mentioned before, above ground silver is likely less than 1/10th of an ounce per person on earth.
    SL in Fla

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    1. Silver is starting to get the attention of the Chinese and Russian gov, BTW, folks. It is about to become 2012 Rimfire Ammo scarce.

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    2. Well if it does, then I'll be sitting well.
      Around these parts , I can pretty much lay hands on a variety of lentils on demand. Of course this is because I am an idiot living in amongst all these spoiled aerospace yuppie scum employee's of the space center.
      We get to see mass shortages and panic stockpiling on a regular basis with the hurricanes. In that way we're not totally unprepared for panic buying I guess....

      Even if you get bumped off the net, I'll always have your meatspace address and stay in touch bubba.
      Ur bald headed glorious dome ain't getting rid of me that easy...

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    3. In a way, my spot here is not exactly normal. A lot of companies are reluctant to supply us at the end of a 200-300 mile run. Perhaps that is why Dollar Tree isn't here even though we have two Family Dollar stores ( who form a chain all the way to Reno, making it worth their time to deliver inventory ).

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  5. re:
    my 'noticed but overlooked' department

    We farm near the outskirts of Eugene Oregon fUSA. In April or so, the 'Super' Wal*Mart staff pulled a sneaky == overnight, they removed a row of two-sided shelves from the grocery section, then shifted the other rows to give the impression 'all is well, do not panic'.

    Before the shift, two shopping carts had barely room to pass; this's OK, this's the neighborhood we call 'Eugene' and we like to chat anyway.

    Now, two carts side-by-side can pass a stopped cart with its tons-o'-fun browser closely examining each label picture to determine the government-approved minimum daily requirement nutritive value of the HFCS content. So there is that.

    Overnight. A ten-percent reduction in shelving to not carry non-existent grocery stock. Can you say 'SHEZAM!'?

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    Speaking of 'stock reductions' aka 'loss prevention', Saturday was '20-percent off everything member-appreciate' sale at Coastal Farm And Ranch Supply. While waiting in one of the kosher lines and chatting with any available ears, I glanced up in startlement == at least a dozen new additional 'eyes in the sky' surveillance cameras around the registers.

    (Did I write 'kosher'? I meant 'cashier'.)

    At Coastal, the 4H kids had dime hotdogs as a fund-raiser. I had five dogs with me on our weekly trip to town, so I got five, and dropped five bucks in the donation bucket. My scoundrels noticed the implications, but probably chose to overlook them in favor of scarfing. You have to love opportunistic eaters!

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    1. Nice update on reduction of shelf space for food. Thank you! I don't get out a lot and my "boots on the grounds minions" help a lot with the big picture.

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    2. Over the weekend I read that naughty people here are stealing 3 Billion Dollaroos a year from shops that have self check out.

      Maybe they could, I dunno, employ someone to check out the goods? Call them check out operators. Just a thought

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    3. Pay? Employees? That comes straight out of the hooker and blow fund.

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  6. I do most of the food shopping here (at Wal-Mart) and have noticed a big difference over the last 4-6 months. Of the more popular canned soups and meats they are out of stock!
    My guess is one of two things is going on. One, their JIT program has a problem or some pencil neck tried to shave a few more dollars off the inventory and it's blowing up in the face or Two, Wal-Mart is getting ready to sell the business to maybe Amazon? The fastest way to increase the bottom line to help make a sale is cut inventory or cut your staff.

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    1. These aren't the brightest bulbs out of business school ( which are the dregs to begin with ). Remember when they got rid of the $10 an hour guy checking receipts at the front door, and had 10-100x that walk out the door in shoplifting? I think they are losing money and in trouble, and this is just another last ditch effort.

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    2. Bah - I replied to the wrong thing earlier.

      Talking about cans of soup. One of the brands of stew that I buy got smaller. I didn't pick it up when I bought them. I worked it out when I got home and the cans were to small for their allotted place in my can rotation system. I almost took them back (because I'm getting crotchety now I'm older) as I'd bought a few because they were on special. That's a dog act BTW. Dropping the price as a "special" so you don't catch on that the quantity has also been dropped.

      Cans of Spam 1/2 price last week. You bet I grabbed a few. Missus isn't excited but sure beats dandelion soup. LOL

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    3. Right, dandelions should only be used for coffee.

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    4. My impression of what's going on is reduction of brands not inventory. Fewer brands but larger quantities of one brand =larger profits.

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    5. The generic game ended a long time ago. Yeah, they push the name brands hard. Generics are almost always out. You might be onto something, because honestly I've almost never bought brand name and don't pay enough attention to them.

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  7. "What a difference twenty years makes. Wal-Mart, THE mass quantities store, has crap for inventory. So every other chain has even less ( about half as much at Kroger, on obscure items like lentils. One tenth as much on expensive items like butter ). "

    Yeah, about foyr years ago, the aisles became about a foot wider and the selection of foods became far more limited, The auto maintenance which had two teams of four brcame a total of TWO and theperson behind the counter. Who is also running the sporting goods counterm, meaning they are often away from counter.

    The self check out counter is now the busiest, saving Wal-Mart quite a few bucks. Yeah - Wal-Mart is hurting.

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    1. In the last 10 years, I think I've seen the sporting goods counter manned ONCE ( without being called to wait on a waiting customer ). I was so surprised I impulse bought a thousand rounds of crap rimfire ( you normally can't get a price without the counter person telling you )

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    2. In ohio the ailses where made wider not because of inventory but to facilitate the large carts for the employees to fill customers orders. All the rather large or lazies just pick it up at the curb. Its taken off like wildfire. For an extra five bucks(at least until there hooked) they'll even load them in your car for u.
      (Reference "Clicklist") at krogers.

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    3. Yeah, I can't believe the lazy bastards that think that's a good idea.

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  8. My favorite was Hurricane Ike. I went to the store as the storm was coming in, really just to enjoy the scene.

    Shelves were bare. I took pictures. There was some "Weight Watchers" cookies, but not much more.

    We were fully prepared, well, every day. We ate steak from the freezer as it thawed and had food and water for weeks.

    Being prepped is being able to stare in amusement as the world goes straight to hell. For a while.

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    1. Yeah, it's all fun and games watching other people bagged and stuffed into the stew pot. Not so fun when it is your turn. If you have Amazon Prime, try "Bone Tomahawk". Kurt Russel and cannibals.

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    2. Saw that one when it came out (on DVD!). Good movie. Kurt has been in a lot of good post-collapse flicks.

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    3. I thought it was bizarre when it first came out, but looking at some of the writers other work I went back and watched it again and appreciated it more. On Kurt's movies, you certainly don't mean "Escape From L.A.", do you? :(

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    4. I was SOOOOOO excited when I heard that movie was coming out. Now I pretend it doesn't exist. Like Highlander II: The Suckening.

      Just awful.

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    5. A vanity project for Kurt ( didn't he co-produce? ) that probably got away from him at the corporate level. I don't hold it against him, all the great movies he's done. Just watched the original "Overboard" last week. Never gets old.

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  9. I just picked up, literally, 100lbs or so of genuine made-in-Italy fancy-schmancy spaghetti noodles, that were maybe 6 mos out of date. Pasta lasts just about forever. So now I have a bare survival stash for a year - 1/4 lbs dry weight of spaghetti a day is not going to be luxury, but it would keep me alive, in conjunction with trapped birds, foraged greens, etc. And it literally only cost me the effort of going 1/4 mile with the bike trailer and picking it up.

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    1. Damn, I'm impressed. Free survival food, AND you picked it up by bicycle.

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