GREER MOUNTAIN DUDE 2
Greer, in an orgasmic splatter of over confidence, declared the stair step collapse is good for at least another hundred years. Perhaps this is the Space Nerd of his youth returning, hard nipples at the thought of technology solving all our problems. Perhaps he views Fracking Oil as the newest and greatest technology. Otherwise, I'm not sure what energy there is going to be to keep us from a high dive into a shallow pool of options. Greer obviously “solved” the overpopulation problem by declaring no combat deaths were allowed, and now declares no combat over dwindling resources is allowed.
Yeah, he believed the problem of world population was hype from the doomers. Because, as soon as everyone everywhere went over to permaculture, we could just carry on as usual while people slowly stopped having as many kids. That is what happens when you spend too much time reading Druid books. You kind of forget about human nature. Or reality. Was he not aware of Industrial Farming? Did he think it was optional? Sigh. Specialists trying to be generalists. Optimists thinking they can think pessimistically. Your bias is showing through, buddy.
Let's look at China for a second. They are self sufficient in food grain. Everyone could get enough domestic rice. But for a complete diet reflective of a modern society ( as opposed to a peasant farmer society ), they import a lot of protein in animal feed. Pretend they solve their swine flu problem, they are still vulnerable to finances and transportation. What if there is a issue getting food from Brazil or Africa? Do you think the Africans are going to play the passive Irish in a potato famine? For five centuries Africa has played the Full Retard, constantly at war with itself to the point it couldn't fight colonizers.
What do you think of them now? As oil supplies contract, the military power of the colonizers is thwarted. Africa merely has to keep being Africa to win, constantly aggressive and tribal. China not only has to transport food from the continent, it has secured that food through playing the Colony Game. Granted, they are bartering infrastructure for food rather than seizing by force, but it still needs a military there to secure the food. Any guesses how soon the rebels try to nullify the Chinese nation states agreement with the African nation state over that food? How soon China would ramp up military might after that?
The world MUST move to decentralize as energy supplies contract. China's dependence of foreign food, drought stricken areas to include nuclear armed Pakistan dependence of foreign food, the US's dependence of foreign oil to fertilize and grow its food, all these depend of centralization brought about by surplus oil. As oil becomes less of a surplus, the only way to move is from centralization to decentralization. Yet, everyone is dependent on centralized systems. To think that the transaction will be less than catastrophic ( or to think it will last a long time ) is simply wishful thinking.
Look at the US. It must implode, for some areas to survive. The West coast is worthless as soon as our Pacific colonies are lost. Once the West Coast is toast ( along with all the Left Coast Yuppie Scum BlueBelly idiots who somehow think playing the Brown Shirts to the Rothschild's will keep The Spice of perfectly insane real estate values and wages on par with the weather continuing to flow ), west of the Sierra Nevada's east to at least the 100th Meridian becomes worthless territory it cannot supply or defend.
The remaining land able to be farmed without excess oil inputs is chockablock buttholes to elbows with the assorted villainy of the globe, to include the South. So, one half the country will need to be completely depopulated ( no water infrastructure ) and the other half needs to kill off 90% of its surplus population to feed itself “organically” or with “permaculture”. Does that sound like a century of slow collapse to you? Now apply that to the rest of the world. We already discussed the Chinese issue with imported food.
South America if left to its own devices should muddle through. One has to wonder what it is going to look like, as the White Latinos inheriting a centuries long feudal arrangement might have gotten exactly the system that will work best, or if the huge mega-cities full of peasants will prove uncontrollable. But that issue will be settled long before a century is up ( with the die-off needed to depopulate the cities of Useless Eaters ) as in the triage system that continent will receive near zero energy imports. But, NOT stair step as much as Purge.
Africa stays Africa and just gets more of the same famine, genocide and war. No collapse there, because they are already there. So, in Africa, Greer is vindicated! The middle east reverts back to uninhabited desert, as before. Lots of Mohammedans have to be resettled six feet under to make way for that. One wonders, given Egyptian track records, if they will be smart enough to blow the Aswan dam and try to restart low tech agriculture. India? They are used to dying off, but what if China is eyeing them as a closer ag exporter? Would they trick the Paki's into attacking first?
Oz, in theory, might just see a stair step collapse, if they can isolate and are not blindsided by the legions of Chinese fifth elements disguised as Politically Correct citizens. I'm not sure about their petroleum situation, though. If they must import too much, then they can't stop exporting or allowing the Zips to colonize them. They might have screwed the pooch for a one off suburban lifestyle financed with its independence. Who says Americans are the only dumb asses? We might resemble that remark, but also resent it :)
Russia might not make out so badly. They've already practiced a pretty sharp collapse and if the rest of the globe collapses fast enough they will have enough resources left to manage to hang on limping along for quite some time. But Russia is no case study. What Greer or even Orlov might be missing it that as bad of a collapse as Russia experienced, it was saved for the simple fact that the US needed to use it as a gas station. Hence, some collapse was averted on purpose, with outside intervention ( no, I don't think it was to keep the nuclear weapons safe. It was to keep our new Color Revolutioned resource depot safe ).
Without that intervention, would they have gone down to pre-WWII Chinese Warlord levels? If so, that doesn't seen like a hundred year long stair step collapse to me. Remember, war and disease never cause a collapse. Food supply implosion causes a collapse, and then war and disease finishes things off. If the Soviets went down to a decentralized Africanized level, and the US kept factions fighting to make a clear path for a resource grab, our outcome would have stayed the same but theirs would have been more of a faster collapse.
So, Greer's Thesis holds for Africa, Oz and Russia. Probably, maybe. The rest of the planet will see a faster collapse due to global transportation ending, oil exports ending and global financial systems the first to fall. Now, apologies to Dingo Down Under, but do 99 out of a 100 of us give a crap about the Stair Step Collapse locations, when we are busy with a fast collapse? Hell, no. Careful asking a tree hugger for collapse advice, is all I'm saying.
( .Y. )
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I agree with you about Greer. He is insightful and intelligent but the new age, tree hugging attitude is blinding him to the harshness of reality. His is a feel-good philosophy.ReplyDelete
He believes that if you can be one with 'wonderful, loving, kind, spiritual' nature, then all will be good.
He picked his market niche well, planting his crop in the fertile soil of De Nile.Delete
Ha, De-Nile! I agree 101% with your assessments of the yuppie scum, unicorn ranchers, etc that have a soft serve, easy living during a collapse expectation fantasy. Folks that are half assing the approach towards prepping, or are not in the "yellow" mental alert zone operationally everyday, they are a hazard and are to be avoided or minimize exposure. It is those other peoples that are the threat, not lions and tigers and bears oh my!ReplyDelete
Wouldn't that be ironic, the Yuppie Scum hordes being more dangerous than the OtherColors, gov troops, invading Soviets, etc.? You are probably on to something. Surrounded by a million Soccer Moms with sharpened coupon clipping scissors.Delete
I've forever feared whitebred yuppie scum way more than any MS 13 wanna be's. The never missed a take out meal, fifty pounds (minimum) over weight and bare pantries to boot. But by God got a gun or two to git ER done.Delete
Second wave will be the passive turned hungry libtards. Armed with everything sharp and pointy...
The hood be feasting within.
I'm always a bit slow on the uptake. I only recently started fearing my fellow cultural countrymen. Sure, as a mass/mob they were always an issue. But recently it is more being targeted by them that I fear. Perhaps that was the whole point of Internet censorship-giving one the feeling of targeted persecution. We are no longer safe in the center, but vulnerable on the edge of the herd.Delete
Just a tweak on your comments regarding pestilence and war not causing depopulation. The four horsemen ride in tandem. How long is Mr Peasant Farmer going to go out into his fields when he knows he will be used for target practice by whatever local militia is feeling its oats? How long will he take food to town if he fears he will catch a fatal disease.ReplyDelete
The horsemen are tightly coupled together. IMHO, it does not matter which one leaves the barn first, the others ride close behind.
Regarding stair-step collapse, it takes a lot of jiggling to make the progressive, stair-step happen. The tight coupling between elements in the world's economies and biology virtually ensures a helter-skelter avalanche of collapse.
My thoughts are that with adequate food, war casualties are replaced, and disease doesn't get a good enough fingerhold ( more of the population isn't malnourished, and able to fight off infection ). Perhaps this only holds on a macro ( country ) rather than a micro ( village ) level?Delete
I find it hard to believe we'll be able to dispose of the bodies fast enough to avoid disease.Delete
Hard to bury a body while getting sniped.
Sounds like the worst possible location, BEFORE the bodies stack up.Delete
"Despite the short lived boom of the 1990s US productivity growth only averaged 1.2 per cent from 1975 up to today. If we isolate the last 15 years US productivity growth it is on par with what an agrarian slave economy was able to achieve 200 years ago. (With hindsight we know that finance did more harm than good so we can conservatively deduct finance from the GDP calculations and by doing so we essentially end up with no growth per capita at all over a time span of more than 15 years.)ReplyDelete
In effect, US real GDP per capita less contribution from finance increased by an annual average of 0.3 per cent from 2000 to 2015. In fact, from 2008 the annual average has been negative 0.5 per cent."
Isn't productivity skewed by layoffs and quality decline, plus globalized labor? Inflation? I'm actually wondering if productivity is much lower, along with the negative GDP.Delete
Check out Baumol's Cost Disease. Hundreds of entries on the internet.Delete
Summary: The big productivity gains came from automating simple, repetitive, physically demanding task. The low-hanging fruit was harvested first. Figure the US in the 1950s.
The remaining jobs were more complex and had relatively fewer workers. Even secretaries might be one for every 10 executives on a pro-rated basis. Did Microsoft Word eliminate every one of them?
The hardest jobs to automate are changing poopy diapers. Flesh is fragile, the contours are complex and the subject wiggles, until the robot screws up and then he becomes and it and doesn't wiggle any more. Unfortunately, it doesn't need diapers after that, either.
Doesn't a high pressure hose count as a sort of robot? I told my parents that was the only way I was changing their diapers, and I think they took me seriously.Delete
In Latin America they simple put Junior in a mesh hammock at night. Pee and poop fall through to the ground where the New York Times earns it keep. Lacking a legacy paper of NYT's stature, dirt or leaves can be substituted.Delete
That is the best kind of automation: Eliminate the task.
I submit to you that the NYT is not even worthy of collecting human waste. Perhaps as an anal plug for John McCain in Hell as he is sodomized daily with extra large dildo's ( you'd think I would have said Hitler, but I went with an evil traitorous whore rather than just simply evil )Delete
Australia is in a fairly good position in the long term. In the short term, we're as screwed as the rest as EROI kicks in (we have no refining capacity let alone oil reserves). In the long term, we have a low population density and while I expect millions to die when the lights go out, there's enough land out there to do the whole individual permaculture thing. Our population of approx 25 million is roughly the same as Texas, but spread out over an area larger than the lower 48. She'll be right, mate!ReplyDelete
I may be in the minority in thinking China isn't a threat, but that's my reading of history and geography. China is going to have enough problems of its own, plus there's a lot of Russia to expand into without needing to ship people a long way away.
I feel lucky to be in Oz. Kangaroos are plentiful and delicious - I shot 4 last week to fill the freezer, they'll last me a few months.
China would be a threat if the oil holds out ( then they would want the ores you have ), but that isn't likely to happen ( no comments from Fracking Fanboys, please ). I think the only reason they got out of their historic isolationism was self-preservation from a certain empire we won't mention. Does 'Roo taste like chicken? :)Delete
It is nice to hear of someone who feels the same way as I do about McCain. The comment about jobs changing diapers being the last to be automated is true. However, the pay will go down as the workers are replaced by wetbacks. It happened in the construction trades and caused a lower quality of work.ReplyDelete
Strange how as a percentage of income, houses went up in price after there were no more Union workers. I completely disagree with Free Marketers about Unions, nor do I believe they made things too expensive. The expense was for quality, not lazy laborers demanding too much. Just look who funded CATO and all the rest-the rich. Hence my break from Ayn Rand and Libertarianism and etc. Even my hero Gary North can irritate me at times with hints of this globalism hiding behind capitalism ( but he gets a free pass considering his Lifetime Achievement Award ).Delete
"along with all the Left Coast Yuppie Scum BlueBelly idiots who somehow think playing the Brown Shirts to the Rothschild's will keep The Spice of perfectly insane real estate values and wages on par with the weather continuing to flow"ReplyDelete
Your best phrase this year. (applauds)
Shucks. Thanks. At first I thought it was too much of a drag-on sentence that didn't flow, but it was too good to delete nonetheless. Although I should have put "California weather".Delete