WINNING THE LAST WAR*
note: to both C.D. and S.F., thank you for your generous PayPal donations!
note: sure you want to wait for them to go up again? When I stockpiled my solar panels two years ago they were 20% cheaper. http://amzn.to/2DU0wIx
You’ve all heard the phrase, “fighting the last war”. Supposedly this is a very bad thing, even though mans nature is to oppose change ( this is an evolutionary survival mechanism. Man seeks a equilibrium and then violently opposes losing this. It uses less energy, is more stable for longer and is less dangerous. Those opposed to this tendency always use hindsight to disprove its utility, and usually from a nineteenth and twentieth century Extra Carbon Fuel viewpoint ). But let’s talk about something even worse. Winning the last war.
Winning tends to lead to an even tighter embrace of equilibrium. It leads to hubris. When you win the last war, you always plan on fighting the same war again. The losers might-MIGHT, if culturally able-at least think about how to fight another kind of war. On January 22 and 26th, over at the blog Raconteur Report ( a favorite since I ran across him debunking the Ebola whitewash. He is usually wrong, but for all the right reasons, so remains a source of research ), there was commentary on how LibTards have won the war and how we are all scumbags for armoring up against the FedGov.
I make fun. It was a pretty good point. We are all fighting the Last War, waiting for the Feds to kick in doors and take our shiny black carbines, whereas the Liberals have won the public/cultural discourse and control all the important institutions ( colleges, military, corporations, propaganda organs ). They won the control of the country, while we stockpiled ammunition against a dwindling army of alphabet soup agencies ( or, at least dwindling in numbers of actual fighting boots on the ground. You might have a building full of armed detectives, but they aren’t fighting out in the street. Remember, it is really an insurrection/low intensity conflict guerrilla war out there ).
The next article was talking about some strategic theory enshrined in a military manual which I just skimmed over ( you know I have little love for military manuals, the Mandarins scribbling their wisdom of the ages on paper as if recording dangerous doctrine made it spiritual ). The main point was you had a LOT of activity in the war prior to actual bloodshed and we as conservatives/Republicans/Righties or whoever were just assuming that the fight was ONLY military in nature.
Now, I’m not saying the gist of the whole was wrong. Any one who has been divorced and devoted 50% of their net wages paying the ex wife tax for half of their working career knows how much more dangerous an asswhore in a black robe is than a fat guy looking fierce with an AR is ( that wasn’t just directed at Militia Mike, but also at most of the FedGov Goons ). The Bitch Libbers who took over the courts are an army that won a war. No one can be educated for any of the 9% Straw Boss jobs without going through Mao Reeducation. On its face, the article is spot on. Where it goes wrong is assuming winning this war is either important or has any longevity.
Look, we’ve beat this dead horse to a pulp. You either believe in Business As Usual, Fracking Fuel Forever, infinite growth on a finite planet being feasible, or you believe that his holy right reverend Malthus was actually the Bomb Diggity and all the Optimistic Ollie’s out there are stupid ass Tulip gamblers. You know what side of the fence I sit. All empires crash and burn due to resource contraction and overpopulation. To state that a giant calamity won’t occur because it never has and all empires fail over centuries is to cherry pick the facts.
No empire since the beginning of the gunpowder revolution has drastically failed in the sense of “crickets in the Coliseum” or “vines overgrowing the stone temples” because it has been a single empire, the Western Empire ( the bankers moved the capital around at will, after being bloated by war and inflation. You could even say it was a Bankers Empire rather than a Western one ). It was fed by colonial resources, then coal, then oil and natural gas. Running out of carbon fuels ( we will quickly reach the point every producer needs to keep all their own fuel for domestic use, which will freeze international trade which will crash the whole financial system which funds same and with enough oil left in the ground it will still be Game Over ) will be the equivalent of the Mayan Mega Drought or the Roman Wheat Crisis.
All those Ollie’s dismissing Peak Oil ignore the facts of 2005 Peak NET Oil and the 1979 Per Capita Energy Peak. Take those apples, put them in your pipe and smoke them, bitches! To claim an overnight calamity will never happen is correct, if you ignore the coming multi-week/month calamity. To claim the Liberals Won The War is to assume all the institutions they now control are going to be worth two wet farts while the oil supply contracts. They won the last war and assume the next one will be fought the same way.
Remember chariot warfare? Trench warfare? Armored cavalry? That isn’t about tactics or weapons changing, that is RESOURCES changing. Infantry didn’t just come to dominate over cavalry because of gunpowder-increased food supplies allowed a nitrate surplus and a surplus of peasant fighters. Trench warfare didn’t JUST end because of tanks, but because that level of industrial production of armaments was no longer sustainable. Fighting one war that way bankrupted many empires ( well, all of them except one, the US, which waited to pick up the near corpses in return for all their gold ). The demise of chariots followed the ruin of armies by resource contraction throughout the region ( from events not yet recognized unequivocally ).
Without a surplus of carbon fuels ( you’ll note the ten year old Depression was started by the carbon fuel net supply merely halting its growth. Now the supply is contracting. Things are obviously going to get much uglier ), all those liberal controlled institutions are going the way of the dodo bird. College, corporations, the courts, centralized governments, currencies ( the C5’s ). Politics and money are meaningless. Resources are where the rubber meets the road. Focusing on the strategy and tactics and ignoring logistics is a great way to lose the war. Liberals and PC Princesses and Bitches Libbers and Multicultural Mandarins and all the other retards won the strategic war.
They cannot control the logistics ( their only grasp on logistics is the PetroDollar. This is akin to looking at the warehouse shelves and thinking these are your supplies. No, your supplies are fuel and ore and transportation and manufacturing and a military that can hold and exploit. All gone, bye bye ). Also ignored is the fact that a decaying system allows the takeover by forces that will by their nature weaken that very system ( the navy now being run by PC swabbies accounting for all the crashing and clanging of their overly expensive ships run by Blue Screen Of Death computers, for example. College graduates being completely brainwashed morons, for another ). Strong well funded ( resources to run it ) institutions wouldn’t have been defeated.
The economic and hence cultural collapse has been ongoing for fifty years. The global energy decline has lasted forty years. This is no “sudden calamity”. All praise the overriding paradigm of logistics ( it‘s all about the food, stupid )!
END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2Eg7SHp )
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there
The Original Cyberpunk is giving it away today on Free Release Friday:ReplyDelete
To celebrate the release of STUPEFYING STORIES #20, we’re giving away the Kindle edition FREE for the cost of a click—but only for the next 24 hours, beginning at Midnight tonight, West Coast time.
Tell your friends! Tell your family! Tell people you know who aren’t such good friends but still like to get free ebooks! Share the news!
But share it soon, because at midnight tomorrow night, this book goes back to normal price.
Thanks-I got a copy.Delete
To be truly food sufficient for a lifetime is the only goal in life worth pursuing.ReplyDelete
To do this, one must not not only stockpile. You must practice the arts of producing and foraging your own supplies. odds are you'll need abandon that hoard and run.
Caches are one plan B
Knowing your local vegetation is equally important. You WON'T survive with a book on the subject either ! Make friends with local experts on Flora and fauna. Then practice on many walkabouts...
Yes indeed , your best defense is avoidance of contact. Not tacticool hardware and MRE's
Spud is right. Actually gathering now the food you will need to be able to gather in the future is key. Everyone knows cattails are somehow edible, but how many have tried to collect them and process them much less actually eat them *they gave me gas and bloating*. Knowing is half the battle, books are a start to knowing but not knowing in itself as it takes HANDS ON EXPERIENCE to actually really _know_ something.ReplyDelete
Agreed, everything you know from a book is never the same, even though it can be pretty darn close when you are lucky. I preach over-stocking rather than production of food, because my area demands it, but that works out great no matter where you are because of the time penalty for learning from that book.Delete
Stock the supplies (and use and rotate them) THEN get the books and start trying to practice the foraging.Delete
I think you need to rethink your plan of being a herdsman though Jim, no matter how fine your hair is you haven't been getting the hands on experience. You might be able to be a sentry or watering hole manager for the herdsmen though. Something where you do not yourself actually chase after and care for the cattle riding the transport available at the time (horse, atv, bike, etc). You might want to learn how to butcher, preserve meat, or tan leather to supplement your future roles.
Most likely scenario-living off cached supplies.Delete
Fantasy scenario most likely to work-raider
Fantasy scenario preferred-herdsman
I'm simply not too worried about what works or not anymore due to my age. If I hit sixty I'll be lucky ( I'm assuming vast deterioration of services/supplies as we contract ) and I almost have enough stocked for that. It is like my child support. Every year that goes by I worry less as my savings comes closer to covering the balance.