I have been yammering away at the idiocy running the Saudi stinkhole for many years now. Mostly because they started pumping oil so long ago that any rational thinking human being would conclude that you don’t get one very special magical unicorn shooting glitter out its ass forever. Saudi Arabia must follow the math of oil pumping depletion just like every other region on earth. Simmons over ten year old book demonstrated this simple common sense with pretty graphs and high falutten words, and still the minions slept on. I don’t hate you, but your denial is a little embarrassing.
Okay, I get it. You worry about sea levels rising, I worry about Peak Oil, she worries about backup batteries for her FLIR scope. We all plan for our own boogeyman. But I won’t be beating the oil drum again. I try to minimize that even though I know most of you think I should drop it all together. I’m just going to say that the current political intrigue over in Saudi Arabia means nothing new. It is just the symptoms of running out of oil showing themselves finally. I would ask that you all bow down to my wisdom and greatness once again, but I know I’d be wasting my breath. It is just another of many proofs that our civilization is unwinding rapidly. Really, if you think about it, this article is full of happy optimistic sunshine.
You are oh so welcome. Let me summarize this whole article. Saudi Arabia could literally vanish completely and nothing would change for us over here in the US. The trend was clear long ago and this is just details. So you can relax and panic no more than regularly necessary. See how nice I am? Actually, I’ve gotten zero e-mails or comments mentioning the Saudi’s other than to reply to a claim about how they were investing in a future without oil, prior to all the current drama ( well, perhaps I misunderstood the question in the mail. Since, I've seen some references to a report "2030" or some such but it doesn't seem worthy of extra worry. The Saudi's have been playing footsies with other powers for some time ) . You want to know their future? It ain’t tourism or robots or high tech, it is nomads on camels.
Would you like to know the future of Phoenix Arizona? Nomads on mules. Miami? Skyscrapers mostly submerged, the tops used as mooring points for fishing boats. Elko, Nevada? A scavenge yard for a few sheepherders. This stuff is easy, peasy lemon squeezy. The timing is a bit difficult, as well as projecting the annual death rate you’ll see on the way to the final destination, but the end is clear as glass. The end of the Oil Age doesn’t hinge on Saudi Arabia. The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia combined pump about a third of the worlds oil and all three have been in production decline for some time. How hard is figuring out that end game?
Saudi Arabia was pumping oil at the end of WWII. Do the math. Just drop the zero, use both hands-you’ll have enough fingers. Add the zero back. Subtract the four decades a field has before Peak, IF the rate wasn’t shortened by overproduction. Now take the already negative number and add in the many times Saudi Arabia pushed pumping as the OPEC swing production member to satisfy the US, her military protector and protection racket perpetrator. Answer, Saudi Arabia is drilling on fumes. She is East Texas just starting her economic collapse.
The US is already screwed because of the petrodollar. We would have been Venezuela long ago if Kissinger hadn’t dreamed up and implemented that system, but it started unraveling right after our last victory in Libya. Since then we can’t win a color revolution to save our lives. We are no better than the Saudi’s trying to defeat Yemen. You know the end game, we are just in the detail phase. Saudi’s switching over to Chinese protection would no more alter events than if Russia stopped selling oil altogether. The timeline might be slightly altered, but the end is the same.
So, really it doesn’t matter at all what happens in Saudi Arabia. They are all done as a major oil producer, and nobody wants to acknowledge that. Not Sally SUV or Prince Shalomadomadingdong. Saudi Arabia could remain stable or at least continue Business As Usual, and be the very last country to accept dollars for oil ( Canada is our buddy because they have to be, yet I’m sure she vividly remembers all our invasion attempts and won’t spare us a thought once she can show us the door ), and that still would not save the petrodollar. That system is, like the rest, done with and nobody wants to see the elephant in the room.
You can’t look at threats as if to say, “how much time do I have left?”. You have to look at them as if “I can’t believe that sucker hasn’t gone down yet!”. When you are living on borrowed time you use what is left to refine preps, but you don’t need to worry about the details. You already know the outcome. What about if political turmoil shuts down oil production over there, an immediate threat that could occur tomorrow? What about it? Why should that concern you? You know about JIT inventory. You know gas and oil disruptions can occur at any time regardless of the cause.
You know the economy is already imploding. It doesn’t need a sudden ten percent oil production deficit to suddenly screw everything up. It could be any kind of event. Why aren’t you already factoring that in? Were you effected by the shut down in oil production in Houston? Everyone should already be ready to hunker down in place, at a minimum. Could your job be lost if suddenly a Saudi shut down threw the world economy into a tailspin? Why are you still in debt?
Yet, really, stop and think about the position we are in right now. Yes, in the early 1970’s we were already in an economic contraction. The oil shock was an abrupt end in the growth we did have. Look at how poorly things went from there. But we have NOT had economic growth for some years now. The economy now is worse than the Great Depression. In comparison the 1970’s was a mild episode. If we are already in negative growth, would a global ten percent decline in oil availably have the same impact that the 3% decline had back in the Seventies? Remember, a recession is a decline in the growth of the economy. The growth rate itself just didn’t grow as much as usual. Now we have negative growth.
I’d wager Saudi Arabia collapsing at this point would have a serious economic impact, but nothing any worse than what we’ve already seen in the last ten years. If that is the straw that breaks the camels back, it is still in itself no worse than usual. The companies were already destined to go bankrupt, the unemployment rate was already going up. So, really, don’t worry and be happy.
END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2iVUC0t )
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there
I like the scavenging angle. If you look closely at it, the "coup" is also about confiscating 800 billion worth of assests (mainly kilobytes of petro-vapor money in some computer somewhere in the northern+western hemisphere). They take whatever they can while there is still the infrastructure and the organized society to do so.ReplyDelete
After that it will be too late; As an example, in WW1, German soldiers were paid individually for any piece of brass they could scavenge, and thus whenever an allied tank was disabled, they ripped these pieces of brass off the delicate mechanisms, rendering the whole tank nearly worthless for salvage as a system.
The Saudis might very well wage some stupid war in the area just to use up those token weapons we (the West) sold them to make believe in their wealth, when it all came from us in the first place.
All these "Mad Max" weapons we saw in Syria really is the future of warfare. It started one century ago with the Chauchat LMG (ha ! The French again !) and went on with the Sten in WW2, then the plastic guns etc. (not to mention the makeshift clubs & maces used in Close Quarter Combat in the trenches)
This is your war without ressources. Mules and bicycles will be much more important for the common man in the future, because he won't have access to oil and oil derivatives (cars, gasoline, steel, fertilizers etc.)
I was impressed by this video ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzcGNKst_W4 ) showing the weapons captured by the Syrians in their operations along the Euphrates river. Look at that large amount of bolt-action weapons (also, they have shotguns of various calibers, air rifles and the odd cap & ball rifle). The Spanish Civil War was a preview of WW2, here you have your preview of the upcoming Endless Collapse Skirmishes for the next two generations.
Love that last two paragraphs. A preview of future lower resource warfare. I guess for some reason I'm always envisioning high tech going on to time X, then no more as the fuel and ammo run out, in one short time period. Your way sounds far more realistic.Delete
Oh my god, Becky! They didn't have common calibers!!!!! How could they fight?Delete
>> Oh my god, Becky! They didn't have common calibers!!!!! How could they fight?Delete
To be fair... they lost this fight :)
But they held on to the area fo four years (also, thanks to airdrop ressupply and Toyota pick-ups that appear magically in the desert)
Still, four years. Better than most of us will do with semi-auto's instead of bolts. And they lacked common calibers to get that super ninja squad. And since almost the entire region is uninhabitable without outside resupply, I don't think we should hold that against their success.Delete
I was getting tired of your pumping the end of oil until you introduced the return on investment (ROE) into the equation. I do not think we are approaching the loss of oil, a reduction in flow for sure but not an end. Then you introduced the ROE into the equation and that made it clear in my eyes. We are not approaching the end of oil production but rather the end of affordable (cheap) oil. That I can get behind.ReplyDelete
You know, it's a bit funny/sad. I went back and read my 2006 book on Peak Oil and I had already been introduced to and discussed Net Energy. So I either didn't truly understand it as far as it applied to the economy ( like we all can now, just by looking out the window ) or I just let my own hysteria of imports stopping ( enough that it was the same as "running out" ) overshadow that. My failure as a writer, to cover the fundamentals better.Delete
It's the gargantuan numbers that always trip me up in anything to do with gov't, on a national or a global scale. The other day you mentioned something about the US uses something like 18 million barrels of oil per day. I have a couple 55 gal drums for burn barrels and when I look at them and try to imagine 18 million of them it goes way off the charts. My brain can't reach that far. I'm too simple a man for that sort of thing. So I basically take it on faith that what you say is mostly true, as you see it. I have no other means of reference except in what other people say.ReplyDelete
Here's a corollary:
Early last year I was told I have Hepatitis C but didn't seem to have any symptoms, at least none that I was aware of. The same entity that told me I have it also provided the cure, which I took, and now a year later I can tell no difference between now and almost 2 years ago when I was first diagnosed with it. See? All of it was "created" by others and I had nothing to do with it! I just went along for the ride.
Perhaps in my last chapter all the truths will be revealed but for now most of this stuff that happens on this globe is mostly fictional until it effects me directly in a way in which I can recognize it. And all along the way I keep trying to find more and more people I can trust.
I believe "oil barrels" are only 42 gallons, not 55. So, hey, so much easier to visualize, right? :) I hear what you are saying, we are all pretty much self-centric and fuzzy foreigner news is a bit of "dream sequence" unreality behind it. As for the medical industry-bastards and whores! I'm sure, like lawyers, there is a five percent number of decent people. The rest give them a bad name. "Don't ask a barber if you need a haircut", so the doctors tell you you have a disease and then try to kill you faster giving you drugs that mask the symptoms. Did I mention "bastards and whores"?Delete
Hep C is actually almost the ONLY thing I will happily take the cure for - because it is one of the only drugs now being provided (other than vaccines and antibiotics) that actually CURES something, and you don't have to take again if you don't get re-infected.Delete
Not that antibiotics are doing that great...:)Delete
Aside here, was watching Jeopardy on TV last night, ? was name the State from 3 cities listed.ReplyDelete
On the $600 ? it listed 2 cities I had never heard of and Elko. Answer Nevada.
Looks like your out of the way city just was noted by about a million TV viewers.
Just like when last year Hillary showed up there for a campaign stop and low and behold on the stage behind her was you sitting proud with your less than beautiful hair smiling like a Chesire cat.
Ely and Winnimucca, the other two? Anything else except for the cluster at the Sierra mountains or military towns ( Hawthorne, Fallon ) or Vegas suburbs I would imagine even Nevadians never heard of. Some really are the proverbial church and a bar at an intersection. Damn, I wish I could live in one of those!Delete
Not 9:28 Jim, but this reminded of one of my favorite books that I got from Loompanics back in the day: Great Hideouts of the West, An Idea book for living free, By Bill Kaysing. Yeah, Kaysing was a bit of a commi, and is probably best known as the godfather of the moon hoax landing theory. Despite this, this book is one of my favorites. The reason that I mention this is that Kaysing listed Nevada as his favorite state to hideout in. He even illustrates in one chapter, how he was able to live for free in an old abandoned ranch house, on the condition that he keep watch over the property.Delete
Looks like there’s a lot of tiny towns in Nevada. Perhaps places such as Wells, Deeth, and what about the town near yours and mine junk land, Ryndon? It appears to be rather small best I can tell?
I’d say that you’re in a position now where you could live in such an area. All of your income is now produced from online sources, so there’s nothing keeping you in a larger town, except the NOL. Oh well, if you ever find yourself single again (a lifestyle of which I highly recommend) it’s something to consider.
Staying with the NOL is a lifestyle choice, one which I admit is dangerous. But my whole life ( well, puberty on ) was desiring a meaningful relationship which I never had until now. I don't have much time left, I'm going to stay happy with a wonderful companion. Caution thrown to the wind. I'm still no where near as bad off as those city folks with no choices. One or two days I can reoccupy the BPOD, with all my gear. Not that the BPOD is far enough away from the city, but you works with what ya's got. Ryndon is feasible if the desire is there, if I become single. One RV campground and one gas station with C-store and propane tank. I think it is only on the map due to being something else long ago. Wells sucks-too many folks and high real estate. Some teeny tiny places are Yuppie Scum resorts. You know, I think I actually had that book way back in the day. I don't think Nevada was on my radar yet, though.Delete
Yes children, the lord bison is correct. Remember to use the lizard half of your brain to apply "cause and effect" to how incidents-events occuring far away or down the road can affect you. Production dropping off, eroi offsets, financing-money drying up, dollar repudiated- not accepted, weather interruptions/no repair-replacements, transport routes blocked/war-strife, internal/external war-conflicts redirecting resources away from your peon asses. Think, think, think. Look at "islands of privation" now with plenty to be had-gorged on. Venezuela/africa etc. Just bad politics and low intensity (4g) warfare can cut yer asses of from the good living your sucking up now. You have been warned, carry on accordingly.ReplyDelete
Two points -1 things almost NEVER happen as quickly as we expect them to happen[In 1999 did you think that by 2017, things would not have collapsed yet?]
2. I think you are not right about Amazon, they just bough Whole Foods and practically got it for free based on the increase in stock price since purchase.
We will see, you have really hit your stride in creativity. i.e you are really good/better now. keep it up.
Could the reason be the NOL is helping you take care of your hair?
I appreciate the compliment ( or perhaps it was long suffering relief ). 1. I think things don't happen as quick as we expect because we probably always focus on the wrong thing. The housing bubble popping took longer than expected, yet it was the derivatives that kicked our ass, just ten years after the Russian market example. And really, we were stressing for a very long time about oil running out, but it was just three years from global peak to economic crash. Russia should have crashed decades ago due to communism, but their peak oil+Afganistan were a deadly combo. Petrodollar default is going to kill our economy, not all the other crap we focus on. Second, when the stock market tanks ( derivatives again ) Amazon and all the buttholes who used Dallas city pension funds to way overvaluate are going to get their comeuppance. High stock prices are keeping a LOT of companies alive. I can't predict the exact sequence, but I think an easy ballpark guess is, they all fall down. Remember, the last five hundred years of banking was predicated on growth. 2005 on we have had no growth due to petroleum EROI slide. The volume stats the same but less energy is getting to us for use. Energy decline is growth decline is banker and economic decline. I know you all hating hearing about the oil, but it feeds all of us and is responsible for all economic activity.Delete