Another hearty hi-ho and thanks for the fish for this minion article idea ( asexual hugs included ). Moral hazards are one of those stupid business lingo phrases that pretty much make no sense and are in no way intuitive so it is hard to remember. Okay, perhaps it makes a tiny bit of sense. Your Morals are in Hazard if your common sense is paid to be ignored. Still stupid, and I consider myself a final arbitrator in such matters ( I also arbitrarily dismiss any notions of proper language use by Grammar Police, as English is a mongrel tongue and shouldn’t be taken too seriously, especially since doing so makes you sound like you just slipped a yard long two inch wide stick up your ass. But I might have slightly digressed ).
You ever listen to business suits yammering at one another? Or military leaders ( not the peasant class enlisted )? Or even doctors? Linguistic gymnastics which should be shorthand more efficient communication but which tend to devolve into tribal markers and peacock feathers. Even preppers can get a bit silly with it. “My DH has a BOB and when a HEMP strikes we will GOOD”. WHY? If there is one thing I hate more that tribal marker lingo it is friggin acronyms. Makes people sound like friggin kids in a tree house making up their own language so they can be super secret ninja turtles on a spy mission. Lick my crack, jack!
Anyway, now that we have ascertained that the actual phrase Moral Hazard blows rabid mule member, it just means once you are insured against an event, you disengage from some actions that would have lowered the chance of that disaster happening. Or, to simplify better, risky behavior is rewarded. The perfect example of one would be the banks being Too Big To Fail. Once that happened, they started making profits again on far riskier behaviors. They became landlords rather than loan officers, and doubled down on derivatives.
Why Not, right? The government would simply borrow more money to give back to them. The government would simply take over the collection of payments. Well, we all know the stupidity of that, as once the government gets down to paying zero percent interest on all its loans, at a time fewer taxpayers have jobs, all you have left is inflation as stimulus, amongst other problems. The Hazard part in Moral Hazards comes around. Now, what are the moral hazards in prepping? How about Bug Out Bags, Bullion and Semi-Auto Firearms? I’m sure you’ll disagree with me on principle. But we’ll discuss it anyway.
Bug Out Bags. You live in a very dangerous location, but because you have a bug-out bag you continue living in that location ( can also include a long commute to work, from a safe location to a risky one, daily ). Now, I’m not pointing a shaky finger, spittle flying from my lips as I denounce you as an Unworthy. Too many circumstances conspire against us. Even knowing better, we stay near an aging parent ( they hate us and use us but we feel obligated ). Even though it will be a money pit the rest of our lives, we stay in our negative equity home because we don’t have the means to relocate ( well, you do, but sometimes taking a chance with the apocalypse at a advanced age is preferable to Roughing It ). And the Big One, there simply ain’t no jobs out there. Moving would nearly be suicide.
My point in this article isn’t to cast blame, but merely to point out destructive behavior you might not beware of ( so, in other words, I direct this at those that COULD move but don’t because they feel safe with a bug-out plan ). You should by now know my thoughts on bugging out. It is all well and good at a distance you can walk to in a day or two. That allows you the luxury of living near a job, but paying less for a retreat that you needn’t live at if you don’t want to. It becomes an insurance policy rather than a crappy lifestyle you engage in now.
Thirty to sixty miles away is one hours drive, or a six hour bike ride or two days walk ( whichever is safest ). Your junk land can be visited weekly if desired and can be a retirement cabin. The wife will more readily accept it over living frugally on it now. There are still issues such as vandalism and such, but it is far better than bugging out across several states. Long distance bugging out is silly because, remember, you can’t time the collapse. As soon as you know it is happening, so does everybody else. You might react quicker than the majority but you won’t beat the small percentage that is all that is needed to clog the roads, drain the station gasoline tanks, wipe out the store shelves and the emergence of those better than you in predation.
Bugging out any meaningful distance, or bugging out a short distance but with all your supplies, both are dangerous and ill advised. Go back and watch “Panic In The Year Zero”. Any strategy that relies too much on luck isn’t a very good plan. A BOB is, even assuming a safe destination with caches, a BTN plan ( oops, acronyms alert! Better Than Nothing ) and little else. Yet it seems most people look at a BOB as a magical talisman that completely protects them against the risky strategy of living amongst the asswhore brigades of teeming maggots on meat urban areas.
Semi-Auto weapons, semi’s, are another insurance program that exposes you to more risk. The whole rational for them is close quarters combat. So, armored up and sagging in magazines, you sally forth to slay the evil and wicked, blasting away at hoards of combatants ( thank you, first person combat games, for making this so cool ). Wouldn’t it be better to stay some distance away, since distance equals safety given most folks marksmanship ( MOST people, relax Francis )? Did your moonshiners of old need a Tommy Gun? They did quite well with a shotgun, as they knew the terrain and knew how to ambush ( as opposed to a gunfight at the OK Corral, a bunch of damn fools going at it toe to toe since they were macho and manly and Billy Bad Ass ).
But just having the semi’s, everyone feels like they are safe and protected, so they live near a bunch of damn people. They put a red dot site on their semi, wear bullet resistant vests and load up three hundred rounds at a time, back-up another semi and they try to Own The Night and go all high-tech for Force Multipliers. They put themselves in harms way assuming they are safe. Bizarre ( again, I‘m not saying sometimes you don‘t always have a choice. Sometimes this is the only strategy due to your circumstances. I‘m just saying don‘t let this false sense of security allow you to do stupid crap ). And last, a quick look at gold or silver.
Precious Metals are a good hedge against property tax inflation, or a good wealth transfer for your great, great, great grandchildren ( after the Dark Ages lift and trade becomes feasible again ), and good for very little else. But it seems most gold bugs preach that simply owning gold protects you against all dangers. Even those acknowledging EROI decline in oil ( damn, it is hard to avoid acronyms ) still think a world full of no transportation and no food distribution amongst rising populations is best handled by gold ownership. Owning gold allows you to live normal amongst the savages, assuming a bright future. No need to store food or weapons, gold can buy anything. If I had more time I’d go off on a tangent about gold, but The People ( or, at least The Minions ) have voted on reasonable length articles, not booklets, so I’ll just stop there.
END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2z9hY9B )
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there
I look at the silver, as a means of income until the banks totally die. Given that the price banks will pay rises as the dollar crashes.ReplyDelete
Other than that, well, I'm betting a pound of wheat will end up higher than an ounce of silver.
Even in our time, wheat has become dearer than silver. You used to be able to buy one bag of wheat for one ounce of silver. Now, wheat is fifty percent higher. And that is after both items are completely tied to petroleum cost. Silver and gold and wheat are less Demand priced than Production priced. So even as ores become more expensive to extract, wheat is even more so. Plug that into your future food availability calculations.Delete
a reading of the Bible shows that people's 'treasure' will be mounded up by the roadside.Delete
they were on their way to find sustenance, if there were any to be found, but dropped treasure because they no longer had strength to carry it.
their lifeless bodies are to be found a little further on than their treasure.
as has been said above, you cannot eat metal.
Although the assumption is understandable, living in a trader/mercantile/consumer society, no other reality acknowledged.Delete
He said lick my crack jack, then, rabid mule member.ReplyDelete
Even the word mule by itself is funny. lol
Yeah, that whole BOB thing is utter nonsense right from the gitgo.
Your typical cube guinea whose big morning deal is deciding where to eat for lunch and afternoon goal is to "not work to hard, k?" and then what watering hole to hit up at 5:15pm is suddenly gonna turn global ninja warrior and grab that 90 lb BOB with $900 worth of "stuff" a hundred websites told him he needed just in case, and light out through the urban gorillas and save his own life by living off the cold, cruel, bare land?
R I G H T T T T T T T T T T
The whole notion of the BOB is silly on it's face when you think about it.
Most of what I "need" is already in my pockets, and other stuff like a pistol and a couple mags and a water bottle are laying right there ready to go.
3 ways to make fire? Please. The BIC in my pocket is good for at least 1000 fires under ALL conditions.
Big ass knives for lopping and splitting logs and shit? LOL
Really...building a cabin there guinea the contractor?
No matter where I am on this planet, if the shit goes down, my goal is to get to my vehicle and then my compound where everything I own is located in the shortest amount of time as possible and that isn't done by taking camping trips along the way.
Ever sit under a tree on your wet ass in the rain with a poncho on your ass? I have. Many times. Guess what? It don't kill ya. It may piss you off, but thats a good thing. You'll be better prepped to mangle a motherfuckers eyeballs if the need arises.
And the cost of the BOB. Jayziss.
How many buckets of wheat can you buy with that?
Or #10 cans of freeze dried yak taints?
Or thermal/laser/GPS/rangefinder FLIRS?
As always, the best tool is inside your head and if you exercise it hard and regularly, like any muscle, it will grow and improve, and as an added benefit your wallet will stay nice and fat and all them BOB product manufactures don't get to take south sea cruises on your dime.
EDC, every day carry, is the rule and if you aren't prepared all the time then you get what you deserve.
Stop being so dramatic! The cube warriors don't get out at 5 anymore. They need to suck boss ass and pretend to be more productive. They stick around at LEAST until 5:30. :)Delete
My BOB was expensive when I bought it and moreso when you consider how few times I've humped it anywhere. Maybe the reason I still own it is to remind myself of my earlier folly?Delete
Oh yeah, it's of such high quality & I never use it (always intending on doing so) that it'll last forever. Heck, I can't even use it when I go away for a couple of days because it's camo and anything camo when you're not in the army screams something that rhymes with "franker"Delete
Is "wanker" a bad thing to say? Well, outside its native country. You still look stupid in camo here, but it has been somewhat regularized by rednecks always being ready at a moments notice to go coon hunting. Or snipe hunting :) My issued camo's were easy to avoid, being far too slim to fit into past age 30. Used them once for paintball, then got tired of lugging them about and tossed them. Always hated camo anyway-OD is far better.Delete
I've got two bags ready to go at all times.Delete
One is for all my day trips , hunting. In it , is everything to survive if necessary.
On the other hand, my expedition pack which I have used extensively to go weeks into the wild. Is more than adequate for a bug out bag.
Both these bags are ready to go at all times, including rations and liquids.
If you use the equipment, then it is worth having.
Never used stuff, will never be of use...
Store what you eat, eat what you store.Delete
Use what you store, store what you use.
Agreed -gold (and silver) are not near the value the gold bugs seem to think. They are only useful when they are possessed in a place that has sufficient food and law enforcement that they can be used to pay for taxes, medical care, etc. If their is insufficient food, or law enforcement, the first two 'B's of the prepper 'B's are far more important (beans and bullets) Bullion is worth less than appropriate medical care - ask anyone suffering severe ongoing pain if they would be willing to give up their shiny coins to be pain free the answer will almost always be "YES!".ReplyDelete
In order of priority
Wealth (influence and spendable)
Entertainment (actualization occupation for down times)
No one would willingly give up the first items in the list for later items if the first items are scarce. Which is why I think BOB's are going to go unused in at least 1/4th of all cases if not more. No one is going to run away from their known shelter without a KNOWN better option they KNOW they can safely reach. And likewise all the gold in the world wouldn't get me to give up my families medicines they need if there was no likelihood of resupply, much less give up my guns or ammo or food (though food *might* be spared if I have enough to make it to next harvest season- but it would cost the gold holder LOTS of gold).
A semi makes sense for a brief period of time while the ammo lasts and the law is to remote/weak to provide safety from larger scale crime. If you are the last one with ammo you will win most future fights (excepting ambush) but you might need to shoot enough people at once while defending that a semi is required - hopefully you are far enough out that such a situation never occurs or the attacking gangs are whittled down by intervening conflicts.
BTW- The OK Corral was either lawmen confronting a gang or a handful of citizens ambushed by jack booted thugs depending on whose side you read. In either case it was more an improvised ambush as part of an ongoing feud than just hot tempers on dirt streets.
I take your meaning about the OK Corral, but you could also look at it as LEO's needing to prove their machismo for future respect, or a gang unable to ever show fear so choosing macho tactics to prove themselves. In neither case were the tactics sound. Yes, it was an ambush, but the two conflicting cultures were both also unwilling to fight smarter at any other time. You could say their reputations were their moral hazard.Delete
Just nitpicking as it really doesn't matter,Delete
but if the list is prioritized wouldn't water be first?
Hey, don't we pretty much JUST nitpick here? I'm thinking it isn't the bodies priority of water but the groups, such as for the food growing, laundry and such. Forgive me if I'm speaking out of turn.Delete
Air and water are usually easily supplied by the environment only in very rare circumstances do you need to worry about storing much of either - FILTERS to make what you breath or drink clean of pollutants is probably more important. You can still breath or drink the polluted stuff usually, but it may negatively impact your health until you can adjust or find a work around. Food on the other hand can be *completely* unavailable in many environments for at least some period of time (like deep winter) -survivalists in a very fertile rainforest might not even have to worry about storing food and have security and healthcare at the top of their lists instead.Delete
'Issues such as vandalism and such"ReplyDelete
'Such" being the total theft and full blown burglary where due to your retreats location they have all time in the world to strip your goods without prying eyes to spot them.
Or perhaps the prying eyes are lookouts for them.
Thus, this is the reason I will live at my spot full time and if the partner does not wish to, then I will seek another with an outlook like mine or go it alone.
Better to delve into solitude and introspect than to loose all you have worked and planned for.
And I hear that if you can't be with a suitable life partner volleyballs are great conversationalists.
Until they go flat. Sure, you didn't MEAN to kill Wilson, but there ya go. ( or was it Winston? )Delete
Wilson, the sporting goods company.Delete
The makers of that soccer ball.
I've been watching a comedy on Netflix. New Girl, I think. Winston is one of the characters. I think I was channeling him.Delete
I’m sure that everyone here remembers that cheesy Batman series from the 60’s. Batman had, contained within his utility belt, every possible gadget or contraption that would solve any possible dangers that he faced. I get the impression that many survivalists place this sort of importance on the bugout bag. That being said, I don’t feel that having a bugout bag is such a terrible idea regardless of one’s post apocalyptic plans. You never know when you might face an unforeseen danger, and need to vacate your premises immediately, and I’m referring to those living outside of city limits in this scenario.ReplyDelete
With regards to the junk land that is not lived on regularly, theft will be a constant worry (I know from personal experience). You would really want to cache all items of importance. You can place an old trailer or a shed on the property for shelter, but I would leave it empty. You might even consider leaving it unlocked to prevent anyone from breaking into it. If you do not have a ready made shelter set up in advance, then be sure to include a tent in your cache.
"Batman" didn't do us any favors. "McGivver" took it way past Superhero Fantasy stupid.Delete
"The whole rational for them is close quarters combat."ReplyDelete
Not necessarily. Mine is pretty accurate out to 300 yards and as soon as I can some BIG land I'll find out how far it is good for, I'm betting I can hit a human silhouette at 100 yards. But if they do get up close, like say, within 100 feet I'm ready for that. Are you with your long gun all the way out to there? Maybe if you put a 30' bayonet on it.....
"Wouldn’t it be better to stay some distance away..."
Well yes, of course. Why can't you have both, a semi AND property away from the hordes?
Of course you can have both. But the whole culture, in general, as portrayed in all the PA Porn and Militia Porn and general member grandstanding, to "pro" training, seems to be a general assumption of CQB. Having a semi doesn't make you a moron for having one if it isn't a crutch. But most folks are using it as a crutch, in my opinion. Again, the majority. I know I've made very general blanket statements in the past, trying to get my general worldview across. Now that I have the time to do so and the mental energy also, I'm trying to more closely focus on the details. Distance, in this case, allows you to forego the need for a semi. In the future when most of the ammo is burned off, it won't be a handicap. You don't take a crossbow to the small battlefield, but rather bows for rapid shots. The crossbow works well up at the castle wall where you get that minute to reload ( for a higher power draw ones ). Think of bolt rifles as the crossbow. Distance being the castle wall.Delete
Speaking of urine. And gunpowder. LOLDelete
I learned from the british farm series of TV shows that urine was purchased from pubs (bars), businesses, farmers, just about everyone, for use in the manufacturing of gunpowder. The individual collector vessels were actually called "pisspots" and each morning they were dumped into a large centrally located collection barrel on each property for weekly collection.
I've seen hundreds of old western shows from the 40's and 50's and almost all of them feature a saloon as the main gathering place and have often wondered how they dealt with the enormous amount of urine produced. Now I, and you, know.
In Dodge City, for example, Newly O'Brien, the town gunsmith, made the rounds of all the saloons and other places and collected all the barrel contents and used them in the gunpowder that he then used in the cartridges he sold to Dillon and everybody else.
Tidbit of the day: Marshall Matt Dillon killed 355 people during the 20 year run of Gunsmoke and James Arness, the guy that played Dillon was indeed a very fast draw in real life, with only one other person common to TV that was faster and that was Jerry Lewis. Yeah, THAT guy. Kinda unbelievable no?
Arvo Ojala, the guy that taught Arness how to draw, is the same guy Dillon shot dead at the beginning of each show.
I don't know if I've ever watched Gunsmoke. Or the one Clint was in. Love the trivia. I think the urine is the liquid you process the nitrates out of the crap, although it can also be used itself. Not sure, don't quote me. I spend $30 on a book on the powder industry in London around the 1600's, but the thing was almost impossible to read and I set it aside and forgot about until now. Not a reprint of the time, just a historical account.Delete
Back when we still had the Encore Westerns Channel, there was this dude named Bob Boze Bell, that would provide trivia about the old west in between features. One day he mentioned that the typical scenario that you see in the western movies or tv series, in which the two contestants faced each other and tried to out draw one another, was a total load of shit. There was actually only one documented instance in which this really occurred, and the hollyweird producers took that one instance and ran with it.Delete
It makes sense if you think about it. You’d have to be a real idiot to fight in such a manner, and wouldn’t last long if you did. It got to the point where I found the character of Matt Dillon to be laughable after a while.
I suppose the main point that you can take away here, is that many survivalists think that a post collapse defense situation is going to be a lot like the tv shows and video games that they watch (it won’t).
Oh, and it was Glenn Ford that was credited as being the fastest gun in hollywood. That’s gotta sting a little for the patriot crowd, him being a Canuck and all 😀
Historically, growing up you hunted to learn your warrior skills. Now, you watch TV. This works out great for the nation state and its military. The bad skills you are learning benefit them. Social engineering at its best. The desired result, and at a profit. Oh, and if you believe the hype about the Jews controlling Hollywood, as you lay bleeding from Hollywood tactics, they appreciate you fighting as cannon fodder in their defense of Israel.Delete
YOU, yes YOU, need a bug out bag right now. It seems the NORK's just launched an ICBM that can reach the east coast of the US today. Lets say a grid-down event occurs tomorrow, hypothetically. Some powerful people allegedly would like this to happen. We'd instantly be back to fire control methods of 100 years ago when they had bucket brigades to ATTEMPT to put out building fires. There are all kinds of reasons why any given building in Elko would catch fire. With no way to extinguish, they would develop into building to building crown fires and most of the town could easily be wiped out. If I understand the way you explained your living arrangements, there are other buildings close or attached to your residence? You NEED a bag, NOW, that would have bare minimum life essentials that you could grab and evacuate at a moments notice. It wouldn't even have to be a big event, your drunk or stoned neighbor could easily have a kitchen fire at 0200 hours and your place could sympathetically ignite before the fire department got it under control.ReplyDelete
Understood about the fire danger. But I've walked the distance to my BPOD ( bike break-downs ) and while uncomfortable at a moments notice not that big of a deal. One reason I hydrate well each morning is I don't get as thirsty while excercising. I could do it even without water.Delete
So your cache is within walking distance. What if you have to go to a further cache? I have a 'bob' it contains my most important papers, a little cash, a water filter, fire starter and pair of sturdy socks. All else is on me anyways. It is enough to get me to any of 2+ caches on foot.It is also something that, other than the bag itself, I can use anyways and rotate frequently. Comercial BOB are a farce, as is any bug out location that is further than you can get in a day or two.Delete
Everything should be within walking distance. Plenty of places around here, just being dirt and scrub.Delete
And then there is a rifle made 80% less-good by over-specialization: http://www.gunsandammo.com/ammo/pair-barrel-twist-rates-ammo/ scroll down to see the confession that he has TWO rifles that are "special snowflakes" needing expensive non-standard ammo due to having too much barrel twist. Ha ha ha ha! All AR-15's should be capable of accurately firing the SUPER_STANDARDS of Uncle Sam's Ammo: M193 and M855 (55 and 62 grain). I would like to issue these weapons to all of my opponents along with a bunch of standard ammo. I would be almost completely safe at 250M!ReplyDelete
Bug Out bag is a great idea to keep in your car. It's not so much a moral hazard as a way to not get killed by lacking basic stuff (wool hat, warm coat, gloves, socks, portable calories, a little stove, water purification/filtering, cordage, tarp, fire starting, good knife, some small-bills cash, ID/photos of family, titles to property/insurancepolicies, extra keys to remote properties/vehicles, etc.). It's not for the TEOTWAWKI, it's just for "regular" PITA social disruption. Add a light pistol/ammo if you can get permitted or conceal well and behave. I like S&W hammerless .38sp or Ruger SR-22 for non-combat (retreating from way-too-close) pocket carry. Fitness and behavior is much more important than a BOB, and a few pocket basics like a lighter,small knife, and willing to scrounge functional trash.
Semi-auto weapons are fine. The problem is the brain and training/confusion of the user who might believe in a hollywood-style "wall of lead" defense. semi-auto is actually just a "self-reloading" weapon that can allow focusing on the target better quicker after the first shot by not needing to work the bolt. Each shot still costs plenty and may not be replaceable.
PM's are money, but money may not be what you need.
Moar PT. Being healthy and fit, ready to carry 40 pounds on bike or on-foot for 12 miles a day for weeks at a time is useful now and may save your life.
The car bug-out bag is a moral hazard in that you routinely drive, or go long distances, assured you can rescue yourself, when you shouldn't be driving at all. Most people want to be able to escape the wire. Me, I know Charlie's out there on the other side.Delete
“Bug Out bag is a great idea to keep in your car. It's not so much a moral hazard as a way to not get killed by lacking basic stuff”Delete
I always have on my person what I call a bare minimum kit. It consists of a Doug Ritter CRKT knife (very small) a very bright microlight, and a small ferrocerium rod. In my car, I always had plenty of non-perishable food, blankets, ways to make fire, etc. The food storage initially started off as way to have something to eat at work, should my schedule not allow me to slip out at lunch time, when I still had a job that is. Over time though, it gave me a sense of security, should a natural disaster occur unexpectedly, or should I ever get lost while on a outdoors trip. Every winter here in the PRK, you hear about someone perishing while traveling through the sierra’s, and taking a wrong turn, getting lost, or stuck in the snow. Not a terrible idea to be prepared.
I did later find out that my little knife is a felony to carry the way that I do. Turns out that here in the PRK, any fixed blade knife, regardless of length, must be in plain site, and I wear this one around my neck. The moral of the story is to not move to CA. And if you’re considering it, reconsider it, or have your head examined. On the other hand, if all the communists in the country moved here, or to NYC, and all the sane people moved elsewhere, we might have a shot some normalcy :D Nah, it’s gonna take a massive die off to fix what ails this country.
"Nah, it’s gonna take a massive die off to fix what ails this country"Delete
And that is right about EVERY problem we have. No one is going to fix dingus because it is all a reaction from the start of the economic contraction that started fifty years ago. Or, a reaction to "needing" a central bank to fund empire a century ago.