Saturday, November 11, 2017

parachutes for sale


PARACHUTES FOR SALE

I’m not sure if they are selling parachutes over at Amazon, but Jeff Bezos just got a golden colored one delivered to him this month.  One billion with a B stock sale ( this on top of other cash outs he has already completed ).  What does this have to do with survivalism, prepping, preparedness, the end of the world or even economic news?  Hey, don’t worry,  I can Seven Degrees Of Separation anything.  If I didn’t talk about this it would be Peak Oil or how to squeeze the last drop of blood out of a stone on a budget.  So you are welcome.

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Amazon has been a great place for prepping stockpiling for some time, along with Sportsmen’s Guide ( with those two, I never found a need to shop at ANY mail order prepper place ).  And it supports a lot of authors, which can be a guy living off grid, or someone unemployed with no income other than his writing.  There are alternatives to Amazon, to be sure.  Okay, fine, you can’t go easily buy, say, a stack of DVD blanks elsewhere.  You have to search around for the company that sells bulk digital media, then probably buy $100 worth of stuff to get the shipping cost down, and then you have saved 6% over Amazon. 

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But you can survive without Amazon.  Everything you buy will be cheaper, marginally, but it won’t be easy one stop shopping.  If you think about it, really all Amazon did was take over One Stop Shopping from Wal-Mart.  That is it, they are a one trick pony.  But if you put in the effort, and why not since most of us are losing overtime or otherwise getting our hours cut as medical costs and rent increase, a little bit of extra time will substitute for shopping at Amazon.  I promise.  Anyone can manufacture in China and sell mail order.  Anyone.  As a customer, you can find much better bargains than Amazon, if you do a bit of searching. 

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What?  Why the hell is Jim talking about giving up shopping at Amazon?  Isn’t their ad commissions like 60-80% of his writing income?  Yes, and that is a shame, because it is my contention that Amazon is about to beshat the bed.  It may not go tits up, but either it is about to go mostly out of business or it is about to go broke and radically change how it does business.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they returned to little more than books and Kindle e-books.  Bezos cashing in a billion with a B in stocks is as clear an indication to me of his companies doom as the global economies doom is spelled out in annual eight percent oil production decline and/or imminent fracking field production implosions.

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Here I was thinking that when the Tulip Mania stock market bubble popped, the likes of Facebutt and Apple and Amazon and such would crash and burn.  Universally, companies have been artificially pumping up their stock prices by borrowing nearly free money to buy back stocks ( the remaining available to the public rise in price ), or stripping their assets to do the same ( stripping as in doing nothing to protect the future earning abilities of the company.  Like putting a PC Princess Music Major in charge of computer security, or driving away content providers on You Tube ).

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This is basically just liquidating the company while it is still doing business.  Amazon has lately been engaging in a lot of practices that reek of desperation.  No, not cutting their ad commission by thirty percent.  Frankly, I’m astounded they still pay people to send their own customers back to Amazon.  Kind of like Wal-Mart having a TV ad.  What?, nobody knows Wal-Mart is down at the next corner, open for business?  Well, okay, that does show a cash flow issue.  But, if you are listening to Market Ticker Dude, they are selling below cost on a crap ton of items. 

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I read that and scoffed.  Okay, Bezos has been selling without a profit for twenty years.  I get that.  Market share.  He still got a salary, so I fell for his hype that stock holders had to understand they were in for the long haul for profitability.  It was the kind of business strategy us Free Marketers applauded since so few companies outside Japan plan long term.  So, he never made a profit.  But LOSING money?  I didn’t buy that.  Oops.  My bad.  I guess losing money, selling BELOW cost, is a very, very good strategy.  For Bezos.  Hey, it is his company.  He can do with it as he wishes.  And he has enabled me to write at a profit for over a decade.  I can’t hate on the man.

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But understand that he is most likely done with Amazon.  Sure, he has to probably invest most of that cash to avoid a big tax bite.  So what?  If I had a billion with a B dollars I could invest in anything and make enough to live comfortably the rest of my life, with enough left over to be able to afford to Super Size when I went out for a burger.  How long the company survives is anyone’s guess.  But I would think that we as long term planners can appreciate the need to act as if the company’s future is dimmer rather than brighter.  Me?  I’m buying all I need now, which isn’t much, but basically enough to wipe out my surplus on the gift card, and I had better come up with an alternate income solution.

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YouTube didn’t give its creators warning they were going to slash income 80-100%.  Here is the warning to Amazon creators ( please pass this on if you know one.  Yes, I COULD be full of crap.  I don’t think I am.  I still place huge significance in the fact even today a Billion is a very big deal ).  Look, I have a paid for e-mail address because I don’t trust a free one to stay free or even be reliable.  I have a web page ( bison prepper dot com ) because I don’t trust Blogger to stay in business.  I have books at Lulu ( not all, but I can move them all as needed. Primarily I don’t sell there now as I’d have to increase prices 33% to make the same Barely Over Two Bit profit I do now over at Amazon ) in case Kindle goes away. 

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It pays to plan for the worse.  I might be compressing Amazons demise by quite a bit.  I don’t know.  I just know you are an idiot for assuming the best.  You know the old saying, “I feel like a Kleenex, jerked off into and thrown in the weeds“?  That is Amazon.  Don’t go down with the ship.

END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2iBBnsZ )
 
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12 comments:

  1. When do you think this amazon down size is gonna happen - 6 months, after the holidays?

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    Replies
    1. Hmmm, that isn't really a bad guess. I imagine a lot of companies panic after the terrible X-Mas sales. The Feds might pay off a few submerged houses in Houston and call in a surge in GDP but the retail sales numbers are probably going to be universally utter crap.

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    2. I hadn't thought of this before but, another advantage of moving to the woods and mostly losing communication with family and friends backs it lighter in the ass pocket during holidays. Gifts need to be purchased, wrapped, then boxed, then taken to distant shipping places and all of it becomes so expensive and a huge time sink. I've scaled way back and hardly ever send stuff to anyone any more, just too much of a pain in the ass. And what's the point in continuing relationships with people that would prefer to be at a distance? My wife still plays that shipping game but I've mostly abandoned it. The UPS store ain't 3 blocks over, ya know. It's an hour each way, at least.

      And no, I don't play that amazon drop ship game neither. You know, where you order gifts on amazon and they ship it to the recipient. Can you get any colder?

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    3. Heck, the few I give gifts to, other than the NOL, are gift cards. No idea what to get them, they don't help. And at my income, they are damn lucky anyway. Still, a bit too cold hearted. The NOL always get more sterling silver jewelry. At least I think it is silver. All from China.

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  2. You have a talent for turning my vague unease into a blog post. Amazon makes things pretty darn easy with one stop shopping. I use the heck out of their prime service. Still use other sites, but none of them are as easy.

    I get a little income from them myself. I don't want to rely on them as they could do a Youtube any day now.

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    Replies
    1. Unease into a blog post. That just means we are both sufficiently paranoid, cynical, distrustful and generally unpleasant to be around in a social gathering.

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  3. I can’t deny that I have a bit of an axe to grind with Bezos, as I’m still a little pissed over the closing of the IMDB message boards (owned by Amazon). Shortly afterwards, MSN followed suit and closed their comments section as well. It’s pretty clear as to why, and it’s so that no one can call them out on their blatantly biased, leftwing bullshit.

    Just recently here in the PRK, Amazon was having some big job fair, and was hiring loads of employees, so I’m not sure how badly they’re doing overall. Besides, what could replace Amazon; Jet perhaps? Jet’s not a bad place, but I’ve only shopped with them one time, because I’m too used to the shopping experience with Amazon, and already have an account with them.

    I remember in the glory days of the 1980’s, the various mail order catalogs that I shopped at. They were:

    The Sportsman’s guide (Remember when Gary Olen would blatantly rip on the feminists within the pages of his catalog Jim?).

    Ken Nolan Company (Military surplus)

    Mass Army Navy (Military surplus)

    Campmor (camping, backpacking, and general outdoors items).

    Cabela’s

    Quartermasters (Military surplus)

    Surprisingly, most of these places are still around. Though it appears as if Bass Pro and Cabela’s have now merged.

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    1. I remember Quartermasters. I think I got a few odds and ends from them while in the military. Other than that it was mostly reading materials. Not until Y2K that I started shopping the advertisers in AmerSurvGuide mag.

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  4. Yes sir, make your strategic moves to be able to operate without these entities. Gear up now with cash on hand,or manageble credit for absolute essentials not obtainable for good value through local outlets. Sportman's for surplus, etc. One may not have option of internet ordering, credit card transacting, trucks running, delivery people showing up for work, road blocks, fuel surcharges on top of prices, fuel ration shortages, timelines from days to weeks-plus to ship. It is not gonna be a good time to need a special spark plug or lamp-heater wicks. They call that shit outta luck-chump. You shoulda coulda been prepped to the point of only needing top-offs to current inventories when sales-close outs-screaming deals arise if only ya listened to that bison fellow. You have been warned, many times. That is all, carry on.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Even prior to this, everyone knew local retail blows. Out of stock, too high prices. The idiots here drive to Twin Falls up in Idaho to shop. Why? Costco and Harbor Freight. Can you fit enough in your car to pay for the trip? I think they miss the big city, so please leave for good. Anyway, sorry, off topic rant, topping off would be your best strategy. Then look for alternate shops. Then plan on doing without. Baby steps.

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  5. Every one has been given a homework assignment. This one is easy kids. Watch and review the 1962 movie "panic at year zero". (It's been replaying on oldie goldie antenna free t.v. in vegas of all places) Apply the scenarios to everything lord bison has been mentoring you about over the years. Thank you.

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    Replies
    1. Damn good movie, despite the era acting and the Super Deluxe Happy Optimism Ending. Still one of the better ones.

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