Thursday, October 19, 2017

deep planning


DEEP PLANNING

Deep Planning for the collapse is thinking past the current economic collapse through the die-off and into the post-apocalypse.  I have been accused of Deep Planning and I hope that I have in fact done so, adequately.  The charge includes sacrificing short term planning in favor of deep planning, and that is true.  When I exclaim that giving up the motor vehicle is the easiest and most painless way to fund deep planning, that does interfere with commuting to a job.  So let’s talk about that a bit.

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You live outside the immediate high population high density of asshattery area, commuting to a decent paying job.  You are pretty much gambling on this being enough of a cushion against trouble to be worth the trouble and investment.  Now, you get ZERO condemnation from me in this.  I also made a wager on my location that is far from perfect.  I have a great economic collapse location that is dependent on out migration to drastically reduce the population count prior to the die-off.  If that doesn’t happen, I’ll be far too close to town to offer too much protection.  Ten years ago I was too focused on surviving the current economic collapse and had little choice in the matter. 

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Presently, I’m in the age bracket where without competently administered modern medical care my life span is drawing to a close.  Now, my location is far less important to me as I’ll likely be in a race with imperial collapse to see who dies first.  I see the danger and don’t care enough to uproot and change.  I have a deep storage in case I survive, but the most likely scenario is me taking out enough of the bastards before I die that I do so satisfied.  But I understand a lot of you still have some faith in the Powers That Be to kick the can down the road and don’t agree with me that the medical field is so rotten it will implode within just a few years. 

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You have either chosen to live far from work or live in the boonies where you need a car to restock.  You are pretty much stuck with automobile ownership.  There isn’t anything wrong with this as it is the lesser of evils.  You are merely following the same strategy that has worked since the 1960’s, removing yourself from the consequences of the elites panicky decisions when empire first started decaying.  In effect, you are benefiting from colonial occupation of petroleum producing countries, but reducing your exposure to the failed policies of domestic control.  It has been a great strategy.  Will it hold?

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Here is my primary concern.  The survival strategies of the last fifty years are starting to look as if they will bite us in the ass.  I don’t fault you for White Flighting.  It is rational and necessary.  What I’m doing now is directing your attention to events that will make those survival strategies problematic.  The signs are SOOOO already here and we ignore them at our peril.  Remember, I’m not saying you suck and I have all the answers.  I’m saying ALL our survival strategies blow.  But if you can’t see how yours is flawed you might be painfully blindsided.

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I might very well be blindsided by my deep planning.  By MAINLY planning for after the die-off, I’m vulnerable to short term emergencies.  I’m not prepped for a Militia Porn Fantasy future of ethnic civil war because I’m prepping for a nation already spilt.  I’m not planning for government triage and the area abandoned, yet still surrounded by federal control ( in other words, boxed in and no supply, but out migration prohibited ).  I’m planning too far into the future.  But there is the danger of NOT planning far enough out.  The very thing saving you now, vehicle ownership, might become obsolete, and in a very short time.

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Look, making more money, enough money to afford to live outside combat zones, WAS a great idea.  I’m postulating that this could change.  This is the reason I harp on the petrodollar collapse and peak oil and motor vehicle dependence.  I’m trying to look into the sheep entrails rather than the rear view mirror.  If you look at the American Indians, you can see how much trouble they had by being unable to adapt to changing circumstances, even centuries later.  This is a universal human trait, disguised by history being written by the victors.  That gives the illusion of success by ignoring the losers cause of  defeat.

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How many generations did it take for Blacks to migrate to the cities for jobs, finally giving up their agricultural roots?  And how long has it been since the factories closed and they are still stuck in the Rust Belt decay where the factories used to be?  What I am saying here is that YOU are about to emulate that inability to change by still relying on motor vehicles.  Not only are you still following the old paradigm, you can’t conceive of changing what was a successful strategy because you aren’t looking at a possible future.  Again, I’m not trying to cast stones in a glass house here.  My survival strategy is as flawed without a vehicle as your is with one.

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I assume I can point out flawed planning without you taking it as a personal insult?  You have my absolution, and my confession.  I only bring up the flaws in case you wish to consider danger to yourself.  Ignore or take to heart afterwards.  We are all dependent on petroleum.  It would be strange if we weren’t since we live at the twilight of the Oil Age.  You depend on personal oil consumption to survive, I do so with indirectly consumed fuel ( like to, you know, eat and stuff ).  And few can successfully argue we are running out of that fuel.  They can Pretend, but they can’t factually deny.  You can pretend in Empire Forever, or Fracking Forever, or Abiotic Oil Forever, but looking at the trends of the last dozen years, if you aren’t pretending you should be damn scared. 

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Tomorrow, why Deep Planning might not be such a bad idea ( and I‘ll barely linger on Peak Oil ).

END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2z4kDkm )
 
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27 comments:

  1. My bet is on the gov't and it's associates trashing the financial industry to where everything falls. The way things have been set up it is not really possible to be involved in the *system* in one way or another.

    Food?
    Not possible to provide for yourself all that you need.

    Medical?
    Not possible to purchase service outside gov't mandated providers.

    Money?
    You must play the *fiat* game for the most part, and maybe some small barter when possible.

    So if the gov't / financial aspect of everything fails for good where do you go? What do you do? How do you survive with no income?

    Think it through. Think about what you do now for income and consider whether you can continue doing that but without a singular employer?

    If you work for H&R Block, probably not.
    If you are a cop you can work in some sort of private security firm, as after the financial collapse people everywhere in this pussified country will will be terrified and willing to surrender coin for protection.

    If you pound nails during the day you'll continue to do so, if you like, but you'll do it for a variety of people.

    And the pay scale will drop drastically because everything has been severly skewed for 100 years in favor of the gov't. If you currently earn $20 and hour for whatever you do you might, I say might, be able to do something similar for maybe $1 a day. If you are lucky. There may be fist fights in the morning between people vying for specific tasks. You may have to ship 3 or 4 asses before you get to start the days work. Imagine that. This will all get better over time as people start dying off in various ways.

    Do you ever let your mind wander deeply into the future of what may be? I never go too far because my fears always lead me in the same direction and that is the basis behind my preps. I plan to continue til my natural demise no matter what. It's what I'm here for and I've never been a quitter. Ever.

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    1. The "good" part of the financial collapse is that being so interconnected and dependent, it very quickly turns into a quick collapse ( financing keeps the oil and goods flowing, and globalization makes every place vulnerable ). So, we won't, most likely, be living on a buck a day fighting for crap jobs. The whole world is a central bank and oil dependent.

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  2. Yeah, prediction is difficult, especially about the future; plus, we live in a complex system, small changes in which may have unforeseen consequences.

    Bottom line: you do the best you can and hope for the design margin for Black Swans. If not, you die; as we all do, sooner or later. I'd just rather not die screaming.

    Figure that if you get at least three of the bastards, you have done well.

    Well written, Jim; well written.

    Sam Caffer

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    1. I like that, "rather not die screaming". Is the first line a Yogi Berri one? :)

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    2. Yeah, Yogi, or so I have read. I am sometimes sloppy with attribution. The 'screaming' bit is mine, altho when one reads much over decades, it is hard to remember who said what.

      I bet you understand the problem.

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    3. Oh, I understand the problem! It all mixes together, and that was BEFORE I started losing my mind :)

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  3. >>This is a universal human trait, disguised by history
    >>being written by the victors. That gives the illusion
    >>of success by ignoring the losers cause of defeat.

    Very well said.

    About the term "deep planning", I had to think of the german concepts of "Breitenrüstung" and "Tiefenrüstung" in the context of war. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rüstung_(Militär)

    Breitenrüstung means "wide armament procurement", it means you produce and procure your armement very fast.

    Upside of this is that you have the most modern weapons , and they're in new condition. This is good for a short war, and in the meantime when you didn't have much weapons you invested the savings into more productivity etc.

    The downside is problems in standardisation of parts but also too much variety in missions. The Germans loved to have very specialized vehicles with the exact optimal motor and suspension and radio for the job, including some obscure niche mission, until they were submerged by the sheer variety and complexity of it all.

    Tiefenrüstung stands for "deep armament procurement", in which you ideally set up the whole industry and critical ressources long in advance. You accumulate equipment regularly over the years and reach savings in economies of scale as well as on the learning curve, with the option of upscaling to mass production if need be.

    The downside is that you lack reactivity (the Sherman tank) or are hindered by obsolete standards (the 8mm Lebel cartridge). Sometimes you can make an upgrade kit, sometimes you can't.

    Survivalists are in "wide prepping" mode when they start prepping, and then turn to "deep prepping" when they feel they're somewhat set, past the urgency.

    As you said in your article, nobody is 100% right, and it's okay to make mistakes "in time". If I followed through my original "deep prepping" plans from 12 years ago it would have been a big, useless waste of ressources.

    I' m happy to have suscribed to your newsletter back then, then I stuck around, it made me become wiser and saved me a lot of trouble & money.

    Now I'm in "lean prepping" as per "BIC approach" and "Zero-skill approach".

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    1. I'll admit to a geriatric blond moment. You keep bringing up "BIC approach" and I keep forgetting what it stood for, but was too embarrassed to admit that. I was trying to decipher the initials :) Okay, it's just the "middlin price" concept. I looked it up. On my own blog. But I swear I'm not losing my mind :) Here is the original article:
      https://bisonprepper.blogspot.com/2016/09/bic-approach.html

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    2. I must confess I'm following a Ave / Bison hybrid prep plan

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    3. BIC lighters: disposable, but immensely reliable within their limits (butane warmed by body heat in very cold weather) and cheap, to enable deep stocking in multiple locations.

      Some things are worth spending 40% more on to get the most reliability/quality possible. A pistol is one. A G17 and factory magazines, with a set of a dozen extra trigger return springs, concealment holster system that works for you, and a locking secured-attached safe/box at home and in vehicle in case you can't have it with you always. I would add a S&W .38sp hammerless revolver loaded with premium +p cartridges in the opposite side jacket pocket. Just for walkin' around. If there was going to be trouble, you would be absent and/or be carrying a long arm.

      Jim, I thought you were about "the new 30" years old (50-something). If your grandparents lived into their 80's (excepting accidents/crime-violence), you have a long way to go.

      There are situations where ONLY an internal combustion engine vehicle will save your bacon, as well as provide options when you get to the other place. The problem is using a 6000 pound SUV as a chronic substitute for walking/biking/homeentertainment system, couch, diningroom, babysitter. I would prefer a 450-series Diesel truck with an 18' plain white box on the back, sporting various magnet signs like "AAA plumbing"/ "AAA Custom Electrical"/ "ABC Excavation" to keep away the locals who might be concerned about my stealth camping-job arrangement.

      Ghostsniper makes a list. I would propose that being generally useful and having friends/associates who are in the medical/food/trades (owning/growing/packing/storing/prepping/delivering) who might be facing similar difficulty could be encouraged to provide what you need while you do what you can and PAY THEM with silver or gold coins for extraordinary non-local things. Barter first, of course; the lack of good money will result in low prices but even less money to spend on the low-priced goods. You can order your family to help, expect your friends to help, ask your neighbors to help, but strangers will need to get money or something they need immediately (medical care, fuel, food, etc?) to trade or do work. Family/friends/neighbors will extend a certain amount of informal credit as long as you remain useful/effective. FRN's will be acceptable only when a person has access to gov't commissaries/PX/BX to spend them, and there might be ration limits making a pile of big bills less useful (even curious, since there is so much electronic crediting used by Federal Employees at the State Stores). PM coins, especially 90% silver from the US Treasury, will be desired generally (perhaps, especially, by Federal employees/indentured who can anticipate needing to make a departure where electronic crediting and paper money won't work) . I would not have a problem parting with some coins, while denying availability of ammo or food (even asking if any could be found for a fair price), to a trading stranger.

      pdxr13

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    4. Dingo-Ave is a smart cookie with great ideas. Do you know about his novel he wrote?

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    5. PDX-grandparents on dads side died in their fifties. Being poor helps that along. Mom's side lived longer. But uber-cheap medical and effective antibiotics did help those ( not cancerous from the fallout and factory pollution ) folks from '45 to about '95-'00. Give or take a few years, two generations. I won't be part of that modern medicine skewing of the statistics. All the crap we eat, even eating "healthy", anything after 65 I'm counting as a miracle. Not thinking I'll die tomorrow, but I won't be surprised if it happens earlier than what we are used to ( from the last two generations ).

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    6. Jim, stop making me blush :)
      The book can be downloaded in various formats here :
      http://solsysbooks.blogspot.fr/2013/04/e-reader-formats.html

      PDX13, I would also suggest plain normal coins as well. Not only are they always welcome on garage sales but they allow small transactions, which will be the norm in a post-normal pre-collapse situation.

      Also, they cost exactly what they're worth...
      And you can operate vending machines with them (this is really not high on the usefullness list, I know, except in a bug-out situation)

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    7. Any years after 35 are a gift from civilization.

      Cheap liquor and cigarettes hurt longevity of working people in the 20th century, but food/water quality as well as ability to get a good night sleep (following exercise) make a huge difference in health. Trauma medical care optimized for otherwise healthy young men is pretty amazing. Yeah, don't be poor (likker and cigarettes make people poor, then sick. Marijuahna makes them less-sick, but impulsive then poor, with suppressed imagination). You get more options if you have saved some money.

      pdxr13

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    8. I was feeling my grits and taking on the world right up to late forties, and then exercise and extra food started working against me ( the sleep part was never optimal ). Overall, I know I have it better than many or even most.

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    9. I think that’s a realistic attitude to have Jim. One thing that you have going for you is the heavy cardio, so that helps. But yeah, once you get into your 50’s, you can basically go at any time. Just look at the list of the celebrities dropping off like flies over just the past few years alone, many in their 60’s or even 50’s, and we’re talking about a segment of society that has access to far better health services than you or I. Both of my grandfather’s lived to their 90’s, and ironically outlived their wives by several years. But I’m maybe only about a year older than you, and with the way that I feel now, I can’t see myself living anywhere near that long. But I hope that I’m wrong, because personally, I have little faith in there being an afterlife, and feel that this is probably all that you get.

      That’s why I never fell for the religion of “patriotism” that was being peddled by our elites. The only way that I would have ever committed to fighting in any war would be if the enemy was basically right upon our shores.

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    10. I always felt the draft dodgers were right. It is every males duty to defend their country, but imperial wars shouldn't even be considered anywhere near defensive. That includes both world wars, BTW. We were never in any danger, even if butt buddy FDR's bankers were. You are right, it is a modern religion. The fact it still works for Afghanistan simply amazes me.

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  4. >> Okay, it's just the "middlin price" concept.

    Yes, but wait, there's more !

    It's also about a product rugged enough that you can actually use it and abuse it, but cheap enough that you don't mind (too much) if it does breaks, or if you lose it or it gets stolen.

    You can abuse a Glock but since it's expensive you'll never come down to that.
    You can abuse a Taurus just the same, but then it was cheaper, and thus you don't mind if it has very nasty scratches.

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    1. And that's if the Taurus works. I trust mine from the 90's but I've heard bad things about them lately. You want the BIC pistol, read the article for the recommended by minion brand.

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    2. My neighbor enjoys Glocks and uses the hell out of them. He has about 20 of them. His wife came walking over to the shop with 2 new ones awhile back and set them down. The neighbor picked one up and walked out on the gravel driveway and looked at it in the sunlight, then he handed it to me, dropping it in the gravel. He said "Shit!", and kicked it across the drive. I was stunned and apparently it showed on my mug. He broke out in laughter. Then he told me thats how he gets over the *newness* factor. Couple weeks later I went over there and he showed me that brand new Glock. He had camo'd it, rubbed it around in the dirt to wear some of the paint off, and used his dremel to stipple the shit out of it so it won't slip out of his hands. It's his current everyday carry model, 9mm. My 20 year old Beretta 92FS in stainless steel still looks mostly new other than a few wear marks.

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    3. As paranoid as I am, and as long term focused, TWENTY????? I thought I was retarded with five Enfields ( now down to four, the ex's son in law and daughter blamed each other who had taken my fifth one after a loan ).

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    4. 5 Enfields????? I'm jealous. Lemme have one! LOL Yeah, the neighbor's all about guns over there, and he's wealthy, so that helps. He doesn't let me know his entire arsenal but I knows he's really well armed, daily, and always. He has a small range on his acreage and he and I use it a lot. Think I'm going to break into the reloading hobby this winter, maybe a Dillon model. Still researching. The word is most people start small with a Lee then quickly move up to the Dillon, regretting they wasted time on the Lee. Been saving all my empty's for a couple years and have a big box of say, 4-5k.

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    5. I'd agree that a Lee is the perfect post-apocalypse reloader and the Dillion is just what the semi-auto user needs today. But you know me-always the tightwad. When 22 was 2.5 cents a round I felt guilty for plinking through a box of 550 too fast. Never had the urge to kill range targets with over about a dozen rounds at a time. But if you do, I'd imagine a Lee would be like rolling cigarettes free form, for a chain smoker.

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    6. Been reloading longer than you have been alive; well over a million rounds. Started with single stage RCBS and wore it out. Think about that; I wore out the always well-lubed ram! Moved to Dillon when he designed machines for the home reloader when I started competitive shooting. Fine machine; excellent service. I now run three Dillons (550s) and a couple of name brand single stage presses. Dillons are the best for my purposes, including runs of 10,000 .223 or 9mm.

      But know that Dillon presses are somewhat complex and parts do fail, hence I have three identical Dillons and spare parts: Safeguard redundancy, don't you know.

      Except for a few of his tools (decappers, for example) Lee is very expensive for what you get. Lee is a good engineer and a better marketer.

      Be advised: keep it simple and embrace redundancy.

      S. Caffer

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    7. Lee is perfect for me, as my reloads will be in the low thousands total.

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    8. A Lee Loader is the perfect way to make cheap range ammo while stockpiling long-term military-packed ammo. Semi-auto can be like chain smoking: nice metaphor!

      The Ruger 77/22 uses the excellent rotary magazine of the 10/22 and is an accurate boltie for conserving the five-cent twennytoo as well as expensive precision subsonic ammo. Betcha they never get to the rock-bottom price of $179.99 10/22's. There might be a version (usual Ruger variations of wood/synthetic, blued/stainless, scopes/etc.) of the 77/22 that is sold as the American Rifle for a good price at local sporting store sale.

      pdxr13

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    9. Another plus usually not recognized about the Lee, it allows anyone to reload. The other systems only really pay for themselves if you are a hobby shooter.

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