Tuesday, October 18, 2016

malthus' gore warming 2 of 4


John Michael Greer, author of the Arch Druid Report blog ( and affectionately referred to as The Druid Dude by myself as I have a lot of respect for him despite his inability to see outside a cheerfully optimistic prism-which I understand is as beyond his capability to control as is my fear and paranoia, cynicism and hatred ), on his web page long ago and in his just published book “Dark Age America”, does stick a trembling pinkie toe in the murky waters of Gore Warming induced regional effects.  I applaud him for this, as few actually bother.  Even the most educated scientists turned authors rarely get down to the nitty gritty of weather refugees ( the book I mentioned yesterday that I must search for being the exception ) and instead park in the Alarmist Camp of Gore Warming Porn.  We are all going to die unless we all circle round the village commons and link hands and chant at Mother Gaia.  Sure, they tell us that the oceans will rise X feet and ruin the habitat of most of humanity.  But no one talks about the poor bastards inland who are “displaced” by the refugees.


Greer takes a pretty good guess at what different regions of the US will look like after Gore Warming gets worse.  He assumes the Gulf region will be largely uninhabited due to its low elevation.  The new port cities will be further inland.  All well and good, but Greer likes to travel a century into the future and visit his Permaculture Village.  I really don’t care what 2116 looks like, I’m more worried about 2020 to 2025.  Let’s try a bit of a timeline ( of course, while I’m always right about the general direction, my timing sucks.  Keep that in mind ). 


-End of 2016 to summer 2017, The Last Depression hits as the big German bank implodes under its derivatives exposure.  The other central banks think this will give them extra time as they take on the few assets made available, just like Lehman’s, but the US Fracking Field implosion tips everyone over the edge.

-The Federal Reserve is unable to bail out the rest of the Western central banks this time, and the PetroDollar system crashes and burns.  Mid 2017.

-Without half to three quarters of its imported oil available ( excepting the Canadian shale oil still available that the Kunucks realize will keep them from being invaded and occupied ), the US economy instantly collapses. 

-Oil feeds transportation, and everything is transported long distances in the US.  The worst is the food, as urban farm belts long ago turned into suburbs.  The whole economy is built on burning oil, and lots of it.  Late 2017 will see the first mass deaths from lack of heat and inadequate food supplies leading  to malnutrition and that spreads pandemics. 

-Americans, lacking community and spoiled by a lifetime of luxury, with half owning firearms, decide to leave the worst areas and go elsewhere, regardless of how those natives feel about the situation.


Spring 2018.  The federal government has pulled back to Maryland with troops more worried about railroad corridor security and controlling the corn production over the northern Plains aquifer as well as Texas and Louisiana petroleum infrastructure than helping out any citizens.  With states left with no resources, local communities are left on their own.  Those turn on themselves.

-Summer 2018 is New Normal with just the regular problems of lack or rain or too much of it.  Pathetic garden crops, most the few germinating seeds from the normal hybrids, do not do well. 

-Hurricane Season 2018 is about New Normal.  Thousand Year Floods, hurricanes behaving strangely.  Any effected area looks about like New Orleans.  Diaspora begins everywhere.


Now, keep in mind that the above, while perhaps a bit sooner than reality will bring us, needs nothing more than what is already happening to transpire.  The world saw a severely hot summer about fifteen years ago, then followed by one eight years ago.  I’m not talking about the scare mongers “hottest summer on record” events-we hear about that every year.  I’m talking about newsworthy summers such as when tens of thousands of First World people die from the heat, as millions of acres are burned after weeks of having no electricity.  And haven’t we already seen several instances this century of global wide crop failures?  How can you keep having Thousand Year Floods every third year and still call them millennial?  How do you claim that the Gulf Stream is still regular when interstate highways flood WITHOUT a rain storm?  How many times does Miami or New York City get deluged from the sea before we think something is amiss?  Why don’t we concern ourselves when Alaskan temperatures ( obviously, those locations south of the Artic Circle ) stay above freezing in February while at the same time the East Coast is setting record low temperatures?


Don’t you think it is time to stop worrying if Gore Warming is true or not and just focus on your own area and your own personal survival?  Who gives a hump if anthropomorphically warming is a commie plot or the next potential NELLIE ( Near Extinction Level Event )?  You can see with your own eyes that Crap Just Ain’t Right in the weather we have been experiencing.  Plan for the worst case scenario and just be thankful if it doesn’t transpire. 


Worse Case Scenario:

-the gardening oasis you think you moved to and investing in will not feed you as the weather changes.

-You live near a craphole spot of biblical proportions which will vomit forth huge tides of humanity towards your location.

-Winters will be much colder, but shorter.  The summers will be hotter and longer.  All snow packs melt immediately come Spring.  Aquifers dry up in all arid regions as Social Security recipients go about watering lawns and washing cars, taking twenty minute showers and wasting water as if they had not a care in the world.  Rationing water takes effect in the form of prohibiting water being served in restaurants automatically which does not effect desert golf courses.  Southern areas will see dry summers interspaced with flooding.

-continued tomorrow.


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  1. Yep. Totally agree with the overarching thrust of your future timeline. I believe it is a bit further out than that, but then, that could be because I need that time to work on my homestead and greenhouses. Since your timeline is near the worst possible situation, it is the one that I am going do my best to prep for.

    1. None of us is prepared for the future, next year or ten years from now. Some have better insurance than others, but no one can come close to duplicating the needed security infrastructure.

  2. well.
    you are addressing an ignored issue.
    preppers are prepping but this is outside the box thinking. i have had blinders on.
    i've read about the criminal hordes.
    'surviving in argentina' and 'shit hit the fan plan' address these issues.
    but there was always a better place to go if you had the funds or the persistence.

    you are addressing 'what if there is no place to go?' or, what if i live in an okay place and the refugees keep coming?, or what if i and my family are the refugees?

    a couple of years ago national geographic issued a magazine about coming shortages of clean water.

    if you live isolatedly you are a sitting duck target.

    if you live among the crowds you are a target.

    it is going to be terrible.
    Jesus said that unless He foreshortened the time no flesh would be left living.

    1. A lot of what I write on has few answers, but sometimes just knowing a problem is coming gives you an edge.

  3. I think it is a mistake to have the collapse starting with us. We are in a much stronger position than many folks out there.

    There is a reason that the big collapse that is World War 1 started in the already chaotic ex-Ottoman territories.

    The first worldwide war (French and Indian/Seven Years War) started in a distant backwoods (chaotic) territory with a guy named G. Washington present.

    The Thirty Years War (rivals WW1 for all-time game changer wars) didn't start with the big states of the day (Hapsburg Spain/Austria vs France) but in the highly fragmented German Principalities of the Holy Roman Empire.

    So a local dispute that spins out of control and starts interrupting oil supplies out of the Caspian/Middle East is much more likely to get us there than a simple economic downturn. Africa has all sorts of stuff going on that could accomplish this. China-Pakistan in Kashmir can go nuke in a hurry.

    1. All good points. I assume, for the sake of worst case scenario, we can't rely on our "superpower" status to help us out. And you know what they say about assumptions. Good to see you are back. It's been something like a year, hasn't it?

  4. Most climate change is caused by humans mismanaging natural resources, creating desertification. Otherwise it's due to sunspots and other naturally occurring cycles. For example, the Sahara Desert used to be the Sahara Forest. It was completely stripped for construction projects, building ships, fuel, war engines, etc. What used to support a variety of life, is now desolate. The Indians (feather) that inhabited the Death Valley area in CA were offended when they found out what the first white pioneers named the place. At the time, "Death Valley" had everything they needed for life and health (plus trading with nearby tribes). No longer though. If you look at a good topo map of CA, you'll see there's around 40 dry lake beds in the southeastern area of CA in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. As late as the 1950's, there was a lake near Barstow where Los Angelinos would go catch fish in. Researchers say that area used to receive an average of 20" of annual rainfall, had plenty of oaks and pines, and the Indians there had it "easy." Since LA diverted all the water, all those lakes have been drained and the areas are now barren, covered in creosote bushes and other minimally useful, sparse vegetation. Likewise, much of NV was once covered in Pinon Pine forest. Much of it was stripped to provide tunnel supports, housing, and fuel needs for the gold and silver mines.
    Peace out

    1. Most of the time when you read about now deserts they always imply less impact from humans. In your example on the Sahara, I've never read about human use changing it from wood to sand. You read about Lake Tahoe going from more diversity to now a single junk pine, to feed the mines in NV, but you never learn about the whole state being a forest. I've only seen one reference to Greece being heavily forested, then being denuded and being replaced by junk olive trees. Just like factory smoke was never a toxin, just "the smell of money". The lies we tell ourselves to enable the rich.