Friday, October 23, 2015

horde hype 4


HORDE HYPE 4

NOTE: I have a Saturday article this week, but again, beware.  I was going to delete it after I wrote it as I wasn't happy with it at all.  But I figure, well, I spent the time on it and perhaps someone might improbably like it.
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Now, let’s back up slightly from the masses arriving at your location ( not masses as in thousands, but it only takes masses in the scores if you are a small enough community-but more on that later ).  I can see sudden catastrophes like an EMP happening.  A limited nuclear war just hitting New York and DC would have the complete country fleeing for the hills.  But the situation we find ourselves in right now is a waterfall collapse.  All those suburbanites who fled the city core some time ago are mostly screwed, stuck in place with underwater mortgages.  But right now there are enough people with resources that are continually making the decision to flee NOW, while they have a peaceful environment with the money and credit to make it happen.  You are worried about city slickers invading after the collapse, when in fact they are doing so now.  Every small town is going to see telecommuter workers arriving, and every community with still affordable real estate, damn skippy few anymore so if you are in one beware, plenty of working poor arriving as their options have dwindled to junk land as jobs evaporate while city rents double or triple.  And right now, with gasoline prices cheap, there is the danger of such moves as desperate folks convince themselves they can commute to a job cheap enough if their rent disappears or drops to a land payment ( people are idiots with gas prices and commuting, making lifetime decisions based on this years costs ).

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Now, just in case you are remembering Mrs. Lewis’ article and commenting on how she is well removed from any of these concerns which you are probably correct, I will note that I am addressing 99% of survivalists out there that are NOT ideally situated in the wilds of Idaho ( and not just any wilds but in a select few areas )( and I’ll remind those envious that moving to that perfect spot in grossly overpriced north Idaho is difficult due to lack of jobs-jobs paying enough for a mortgage payment, anyway ).  Most of us must make compromises because we were not insightful enough to relocate decades ago.  I’ve been here in Elko for going on nearly ten years and I know I arrived ten to fifteen years too late at my country abode.  If I had pulled my head out of my butt sooner I would have picked another location better suited for post-economic collapse ( I still like the idea of isolated high desert, but I don’t like the high local population ).  This series of articles is for the rest of us.  The trend is towards urban rather than rural, but all those small rural outposts are becoming more urban due to the simplicity of population growth.  The overflowing glass spreads its contents outward.  So, every small burg around you is filling up, every big city near you is stretching its suburbs out closer to you.  The horde, peaceful as it might be, is getting closer and closer PRIOR to the collapse.  The core city population, where the criminals hold power today, is of no concern.  They don’t have the numbers to spread out and control the suburbs immediately.  It is people already nearby and those arriving en masse in the weeks after any downwards lurch in the occurring slow collapse that will pose the issues for your community.

More Next Week.

END
 
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29 comments:

  1. "( and I’ll remind those envious that moving to that perfect spot in grossly overpriced north Idaho is difficult due to lack of jobs-jobs paying enough for a mortgage payment, anyway ). "


    Very true. In my little North Idaho town, you better come with enough money to buy your piece of paradise outright. Your overhead can be kept pretty low by hunting, gardening, bartering and heating with wood. But to be a wage slave and earn enough to buy a plot of land -- forget it.

    Our little town has actually lost population but as you said in your article, the big cities near us (Spokane and Coeur d'Alene - 2 hours away) have gained population.

    On the good side, property prices are coming down. I am seeing some prices that I haven't seen since the mid 1990s. Some of this, I'm sure, is due to the fact that folks got scared holding timber land with the abnormal fire season we had up here this summer. There was a couple thousand acre fire only three miles behind us.

    Idaho Homesteader

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    1. Yikes. That must have produced a touch of anxiety. A fire three miles away might as well be at the neighbors, yes?

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    2. I've seen some off-road/off-grid properties in Bonner and Boundry Counties ID that are less than $2K/acre, but they are $40K+ due to size. The lower price is due to the near-vertical grade and poor access (or a powerline/ng pipeline easement through the middle, with too-good access!). The 30" of rain a year is a huge advantage over "Nothing, on the way to nowhere, outside of Elko", except for obscurity and undesirability (which may be very useful).

      Fire is a thing to be planned for. Wood framed houses should be understood to be temporary shelters, like a sturdy tent. A house that will survive a fire should be concrete/earth/rock/metal (at least semi-earth-sheltered), and should have berms with open ground wider than the tallest trees are high. This is still not enough to survive IN the house during a big burn, but the house (maybe contents) will be there when you return. This could be a fancy high-energy house, but the dug-out described by JD fits this bill if it were dug into a forested area. Have the trailer hooked to a truck and ready to roll, so you have a place to be (Mal-Wort parking lot, FoE parking down in the City?) as well as a shelter to live in during the post-fire clean-up. Insurance? State minimums on the tow vehicle, status "storage" will keep the premiums super-low. Keep the plates current and drive safe (as little as possible).

      pdxr13

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    3. Po boy trailer-back end of pick-up, bed part, covered with beater shell, raised platform bed with supplies underneath.

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  2. You are correct. They are already here. Our small town of ~370 has section 8 housing, and if you think they aren't taking a good look around at the resources available you're kidding yourself.
    D

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    1. Section 8 housing, the politicaly correct way to avoid profiling criminals.

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    2. I had Sec8 housing (single family detached rental) 2 houses down for a few years. Single female breeder with 11/8/5/2 year olds by 4 men, had job at pickle factory. Boys attracted afterschool gang to the "clubhouse" between 3 and 5.30 pm to play Xbox and be loud. No babysitter or adult present. Brother of the SFB stayed for a while to survey the backyards of neighborhood. Lots of shrinkage of anything unlocked. A few unsolved B&E's, many car prowls. He went back to wherever, and we swapped from Blacks to Illegal/anchor-baby parasite Mexican neighbors. More posturing and driving-by activity, as well as MS-13 etc. vandalism. Asians and Whites in neighborhood more armed than before. Asians appear to spend 130% of income on Lexus/Acura/BMW's, while being respectful to parents. Russians quiet, low-profile, with boys who march around with mid-length thug-black leather jackets. Russian young ladies are hot, and their mothers make pastries!

      End SE pdx ethnic survey.

      pdxr13

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    3. Piroskis? Damn, those are good.

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  3. Our small town (640 or so last count) gets smaller every year. The sewer system is crumbling and the added costs are running the renters off. They base it on your water use so we don't use much water. At least not water they know about. No welfare office, no grocery store, no alcohol sold at all. Most of the Yankees just pass on by and the ones that stop find out about the utility trouble and flee. Mostly older folks and a few farmers. Just enough crackhead activity to keep you watchful of your tools. We have a septic tank and lines that can be put back to use if the sewer eventually fails or they just cut it off from lack of funds. Kind of like a junk town instead of just junk land. Your hair is really shiny today!

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  4. To true - the urban keeps coming closer to the rural, and the suburban take up more and more of the slack. In 1986 you could drive from Boulder City to north Las Vegas and only be in 'city' environs about 3/4 the way. Today the trip only has concrete free views if you look at the mountains and even then you see plenty of signs of humanity. Salt Lake City to Provo used to have rural spots too- now it is suburban at best. It is getting to the point that a breakdown on most freeways anywhere in the west will have you in range of at least a cell phone tower if not 10 minute walking distance to a service station. 20 years ago a break down in similar situations would have you waiting hours for a ride or an hour long walk to the next sign of civilization. Such places still exist but are much rarer.

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    Replies
    1. Kunstler was way ahead of his time, and still is, rooting against suburbia. Its Everywhere!

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  5. “Most of us must make compromises because we were not insightful enough to relocate decades ago.  I’ve been here in Elko for going on nearly ten years and I know I arrived ten to fifteen years too late at my country abode.  If I had pulled my head out of my butt sooner I would have picked another location better suited for post-economic collapse”

    Been there done that James. And in retrospect, it's hard at times not to beat yourself up over it. Had I got land back when I originally set out to do so in the 80's, I could have got something really choice at a good price. Since I remained single, and never had kids, I had a lot more disposable income than most of my peers. It wasn't like the jobs that I had were fantastic, but I did well with them considering. Unfortunately, I lacked the fiscal responsibility to make the most of the situation.

    I have also noticed a vastly different climate on the job front since I was a young man. I keep hearing people mentioning previous past recessions, such as the recession in the 80's, etc and so on. But I can never recall a time in which job prospects were as dim as they are today. Also the hoops one must jump through now in order to get a job.

    As a result, I ended up with a less than perfect land, but I'm not really out all that much money for it, so I don't feel that I'm too bad off. I'm the minion that bought in Elko county. I got land some 15 odd miles outside of the town, and am hoping that it will be enough of a buffer?

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    1. It isn't necessarily that great of a buffer, although sufficient enough, that will save you but the general location which will be ignored. If you are a mile up from the Interstate and not on the county road ( "coalminer road"? ) I see few to zero visitors.

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    2. Correct James, that's the general area. And 5 miles north of I-80, so that sounds like a good distance, and that I chose well?

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    3. I have a lot 4 miles north and in two wheel drive it took a good forty-five minutes to get there ( granted, the van was crowded and the shocks shot, so another vehicle could go faster ). I saw no neighbors. That was almost ten years ago. Haven't been there since, but that lot inspired my novel. I'd feel pretty comfortable there as a hermit dissing society and as a good spot to bug out to. No water for five miles, on the way to nothing. Why would anyone visit unless they were lost? I think you chose wisely.

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    4. “I saw no neighbors.”

      Funny thing James. When I went on google earth last night to determine how far off the highway that I was, I discovered that I am in fact not all alone out there. I searched high and low before getting the land, and could see no one else out there? So last night I discovered that there is at least one other neighbour. It doesn't look like a hermit shack either, but rather a full fledged homestead/compound of sorts. I ran the google earth ruler and determined that they are at least a ½ mile from me, so that's not too bad. The google earth data is from 2014, so it's relatively recent. Didn't know about the water situation to be honest? I guess I'd better make that cistern a priority, in order to cut down on the water hauling that I will have to do. It's kind of a plus actually, since it means that it will probably never develop out there in my lifetime. The motorbike with a trailer is starting to sound like a good investment at this point, for what sounds like is going to be a rather gas consuming commute to get to or from there, or to water or supplies.

      In the end, I feel like I did all right. I'm only out $2200.00 for 2.5 acres. The only challenge is going to be going it alone, and hoping that I don't go stir crazy! (I doubt that any female would be crazy enough to live out there, hence the going it alone part).

      Which novel is it based on? Sorry, I don't usually keep up with your fiction. No offense, I'm sure it's good, I just don't typically read fiction.

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    5. My only novel:
      http://www.lulu.com/shop/james-dakin/logo-gringos-and-an-apocalypse/ebook/product-22046641.html
      It is free in e-book format if you'd like to try it.

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    6. Thanks, yes, I downloaded it and will check it out following the sweet survivalist 6 pack, of which the survival divorce was a hoot!

      From what I recall, your fiction incorporates some of your real life in parts, which makes it more interesting than most fiction. Since it is based partly on the land in the area of which we both own, that lends a different element of interest to the story.

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    7. Oh, I meant to ask in my last post, how rough is the access to that land out there? Would it be possible to haul a travel trailer to most places out there without too much difficulty?

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    8. If you go up coalminer road ( the main county road-I might be off on the name but it is direct to the freeway ramp ) you can get regular speed. Then, whatever road you turn off if you go slow enough it shouldn't be an issue. I was fine with my trailer on a much better road until I had to get onto my lot, and banged up the underside sewer pipe at the corner. In other words, the roads, going slow enough, are fine. It is the brush crowding the sides that will present an issue.

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  6. I wholeheartedly agree your High Hairedness. I've done the math on this several times and it always comes out the same...badly. Even a small city of say 100,000 will cause problems. Let's exclude the suburb problem for now and just focus on the city itself. If only 1% of that city gets desperate enough to band together go Mad Max we're still dealing with a gang of 1,000 people! Let's say that level of cohesion never occurs among the 1,000 and you only end up with 20 gangs of 50. THAT'S STILL BAD ENOUGH TO WIPE OUT ANY LONE WOLF OR SMALL SURVIVALIST CAMP! I'm firmly behind the Dakin philosophy of hide first and fight only long enough to safely hide again.

    -Novice

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    1. That damn Devil always shows up in the details!

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    2. The solution is the old UK military solution of "How not to be seen".

      Readers of this blog at least KNOW what to do, even if they are lingering in the easy-living black-mold-growing porn-filled overpopulated river valleys. Did I forget to add "soft water in pipes" that is so cheap they dump it by the acre-foot on decorative (non-food) yard plants all summer? Peasants have clean hair daily!

      You have buckets of wheat, rice, vitamins, .30 ammo in magazines/ammo cans, and your pre-dug bunker-tunnel system on waterless-worthless land to wait out the 1% crossing a waterless bridgeless worse-every-season road that you can see a walking approach 6 miles out (during the day with a spotting scope). The plan is essentially to outlive them, not outfight them (Afghan strategy of 3000+ years winning). The desert hermit might wander closer to town after winter3 to look for signs of life.

      Statements from the mutual funds will make decent kindling, so stack them and other high-quality fuels deep for your damp and/or cold winters. As Orlov suggests: Beat the rush and pre-collapse your life so you will be an expert when it's required.

      pdxr13

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    3. And those that refuse, enjoying the luxury while it lasts, will not be experts. Just food for thought.

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  7. I don't believe in this horde thing but let's imagine it will happen : if you want to avoid the horde stay in the city.
    Build a 5 years retreat (something hidden that can sustain you inf full autonomy for 5 years) in the city. Of course I see 2 disadvantages : you could go crazy while hidden 5 years without any outside contact and you pretty much need a Rawlesyan budget to set it up ;-)

    The French Minion

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    1. I think it can be done on the cheap. The issue I see is the occupying force holding the city in exchange for salvage taxes.

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    2. Pre'zactly. You, with your Rawlsean 5-years supplied secure urban bunker, will become part of the loot gifted to the securing military force. Maybe, the military Commander will find your position and luxury items useful, after you are dispossessed of it.

      pdxr13

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    3. Disposed of slowly, used as bayonet practice

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