Wednesday, October 21, 2015

horde hype 2


I like Patrice Lewis.  I have her paper book ( Simplicity Primer ) even if I’m not overly fond of her blog which seems too Milking The Goats generic, and I recently tried one of her new(ish) PDF books she has advertised over at Rawles site.  It was the one on replacing disposables ( you know, clothe instead of paper napkins, reusable Time Of The Month products, etc. ) and I learned a thing or two which is always nice since why else spend money, and even if I had a nit or two to pick it was a good buy.  Her recent article reprinted by Rawles on The Harsh Truth About Bugging Out Of Cities was one of those rare, newly thinking outside the box concepts that occasionally come along slowly advancing all our thinking about prepping and survivalism that has barely budged since the 1970’s.  Of course, read her article, but if I might sum up things to get our discussion moving along, a third of city slickers don’t own a car.  Not all those will have enough gas.  Criminals are the bulk of gun owners in most liberal state cities and will pick off most of the potential exodus.  Once the few get to any rural location, the locals will band together and guerrilla warfare their asses.  These are all good points, and I applaud the logical thinking attempting to dispel needless panic amongst preppers.  Alas, I also see large flaws in the reasoning.


Like most older folks who grew up in a much less densely packed country, the author seems to not quite grasp how incredibly populated this country has become.  As our factories shuttered and manufacturing was replaced by finances as the primary driver of our economy, a short sighted strategy if there ever was one that by direct divine intervention has lasted long past its due date, Unions were  dismantled with unseemly haste and workers wages adjusted for inflation have been in continuous decline for forty plus years.  Now, obviously, workers can’t consume enough on declining wages to satisfy a growing banking industry that relies on consumption and debt to increase profits, so the system had to be tweaked.  The newly birthed feminist movement was hijacked to double the workers available, further dampening wages while increasing consumption, and when that was completed the next best thing to do was to ship in immigrants by the Third World Country-full to depress wages, increase purchases, and replace the falling birth rate of women busy in the workplace.  More women working, more immigrants working ( with the same amount of money being spent on total wages, four times as many workers each earning a quarter of what they were-Union wages of $25 an hour being replaced by minimum wages of $7 ) and more of a birth rate than most aging Oil Age Industrial countries impoverished the population but increased the profits of the elite. 


With all of this immigration growth, added to all the Boomers having grandkids-a drop in births but still a huge base to go from, this country has seen a LOT of population growth and most places have filled up to double or triple what it was when we were kids.  Our normal was small town and we deny the evidence of our senses, tenaciously clinging to our fantasies and dreams.  Refusing to acknowledge our once resource bursting country is now a hollow shell of pollution fed by a drought stricken strip of depleted soil churning out GMO crops in the Heartland, the teeming masses on both coasts clamoring for every kernel plus whatever can be imported.  There are so many people even in the driest desert that even if almost none survive the exit from the cities, millions remain poised to invade the countryside.  And that is just the start of the problem.

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  1. If you read B.Chandler's comment on Rawles site about the Golden Horde, he/she nailed it. Recap. Some people will stay in the urban areas, some will leave. Depending on luck and or training, they will make it or not. The BIG kicker though, is you need to band together, because eventually you will see those that did survive months to years later and they will be formidable, no if ands or buts. I have have to agree 100% on this one. I game out the other scenarios, but this one is a given.

    1. The die-off won't be slow, and the On The Job Training of outsiders will ensure an evolutionary hothouse breeding warriors we can't envision today. Things won't get better but just keep getting worse.

  2. Agreed. I had relatives living on the very edge of vegas in the 1980s now their house location is nearly considered downtown. Admittedly Vegas between the 80s and '05 was nothing but the countries biggest growing area, but still the scale of growth has to be experienced over time to really understand the scale of growth. Also of note is how the immigrants are living in way more crowded conditions now than even the tenements of the 1900s would have people. They have 2-3 families sharing a domicile, PLUS adult singles staying there. If even only 5% of the residents choose to and are able to leave the cities for the countryside from a city of 1 million that is still 50 THOUSAND hitting the road. and if they head out in 5 different directions equally (unlikely but could happen in some places) that is 10 thousand heading in your direction. How much attrition can happen due to positive or negative factors (finding a place to stay or dieing on the road) is a factor of: distance, climate, season, politics, and practicalities too complex to discuss here but even if you get a 1% per mile attrition, you still need to be over 100 miles away to see "only" 1 thousand migrants/refugees showing up at your general location. And how many of those refugees will be hardened criminals and survivors or banded together into groups for safety and strength by the time they get to you? And how many local people will still be living in your general location? - If the cities are engaged in mass migrations more than likely a lot of people from the countryside are also moving (to where? who knows but it does happen - cities and country side mass migrations occurring due to outside events usually occur for similar events).
    So can your local community handle 1000 refugees? 100? 10? Can it do so while its own local community is in flux from people leaving? Will it take you in or see you as just another refugee should it be your 'bug out' community instead of one you live in full time?
    Or will you instead be sent on down the road...
    Look to what Europe is enduring with the current 'Islamic Refugees' situation.

  3. I'm thinking that without a Katrina style plea for evacuation 90 % will stay until to late waiting on .gov to save them. Still, 10 % would be a large enough problem and they will likely be the smart one's.

    1. From some cities, just 1% exodus sounds frightening.

    2. I'd fear anyone comfortable around boa constrictors and gators.

  4. "....the author seems to not quite grasp how incredibly populated this country has become."

    "....even if almost none survive the exit from cities, millions remain poised to invade the countryside."

    First, we are really not that populated. When you take a flight across the country you see that the U.S. is just huge amounts of countryside with even large cities appearing as mere dots from above. There are about 3 billion acres of land (not including Alaska) in the U.S. That's plenty of room to stay away from the masses.

    In fact, you could take the entire population of the earth and put them in a 3 bedroom house (4 occupants per house) on a generous sized lot, and they would all fit in the state of Texas. Add apartment buildings and skyscrapers and you could quadruple that. I'm not trying to be a smart-ass, but just give a scale of reference. It's not that we're out of room, just that our consumption is grossly wasting the earth's resources.

    Second: Even if, as you say, 'millions' invade the countryside of 3 billion acres, I don't believe it would not be much of a concern. They will quickly become weak and despairing and start fighting among themselves. Now I wouldn't want to be on a farm 15 miles outside the Chicago suburbs, but most of the country wouldn't see these 'roving hordes' from the cities.

    But even assuming you are correct and we will see 'roving hordes' in the countryside, they will likely only be able to attack extremely soft targets. If you were to shoot just one of the group, they would be gone instantly and probably never be seen again. Even just a loud rifle round fired in their direction would be enough to keep 'em moving on. Or, since we're talking about extreme apocalypse survival scenarios, maybe just save the bullet and nail a corpse or two (crucifixion style) to a tree at the end of your driveway. That would keep 'em moving on for sure.

    Damn....I should write post-apocalyptic fiction stories!

    1. Damn....I should write post-apocalyptic fiction stories!
      You'd be better than 90% of the crap out there, which is hard to read even with Kindle Unlimited really jacking the price down.
      I think if you exclude those areas without natural water, our country shrinks substantionally.

    2. just what i was thinkin'. parents lived in spacious arizona--spacious but a death trap. no water , no edible vegetation, sure death. millions of acres like that--the badlands, the rockies. people will head toward any place with water.

    3. I look at licence plates-plenty of tourists from the highway plus plenty of new arrivals. 7 digit plates, high population state. 6 digits, not so much. Arizona has 7.