castles in ruins 3

CASTLES IN RUINS 3

California used to be a bellwether state.  What happened first in Cali then happened in the rest of the country ( fun filled fact-Sweden used to be the bellwether for California ).  Think about the Hippies, serial killers, immigration, PC, gun control, smoking bans, and etcetera.  They still are to some degree, but now there is far less control by the federal government ( somewhat, ironically, that trend might have started in California ), less money to bribe the states and far more Balkanization, so in effect less centralization and less following of trends.  The trend weakened, although still applicable.

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When the Industrial Age came crashing down with our economy in the 1970’s, the Rust Belt very quickly covered what was left of the once great global economic powerhouse.  That quick, the lack of growth in energy, just a stall in the increase, a levelling out, and we crashed and burned.  We then turned to debt to grow the economy, fueled the first “recovery” decade with Alaskan oil and the next with Siberian.  I won’t veer off into Peak Oil.  Just know that oil is the only thing the economy needs to function.  You have it, or not.

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The government was going to turn to deficit spending no matter who was president, so don’t hate on my Dawg Ronnie.  What choice did it have?  The oil supply ramped back up, but we had already dismantled the factory economy.  It was all consumption and debt now, driving the economy.  The Rust Belt at least had the option of mortgaging its future to slap the illusion of economic recovery on as a façade.  They engaged in the build-up of the retail economy.  There weren’t Union jobs but at least there were jobs.  The smart folks joined the computer sector. 

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The economy seemed to have almost fully recovered.  Sure, there were a lot more ghettos as the old factory cities were turned into Darkie Towns, the only economic activity CIA delivered drugs.  White Flight was almost complete and the suburbs filled up.  But this economic recovery was based on retail and finance and imported oil.  But hey, better than staying in the 70’s economy, right?  The thing was, it was only a temporary recovery.  And it was a One Off recovery.  We can’t go back to industry when there is no infrastructure behind that, and we can’t return to the post-industry economy.

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The PetroDollar has been under strain for some time, one country after another joining the new order under China and Russia.  The wags jest and poke fun at the minimalist militaries in both countries ( “nanner, boo-boo, we can kick their ass! ‘Murica!” ), as we sink economically and they control more and more resources globally.  So, short answer, there is no more imported oil for the next recovery.  There is no more debt fueled prosperity, as we cannot pay the debt we already have.  Just face it, there is NO recovery this time.

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Returning to semi-bellwether state California.  They started crashing harder and faster the last time around in 2009.  It is true that the liberal mortgage law states had the most bubblicious real estate sectors, but that alone fails to explain the crash.  Many cities went bankrupt.  The state had bloated on higher valuation property taxes.   More importantly to our discussion here, their suburbs gave us a glimpse into our future.  They fell just as hard as the cities if not more so, as they were cash cows and not maintained.  Crime became as much of a suburban issue as it had always been a city issue.

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All the near future suburban issues I touch have already been seen in California ( also in most overbuilt housing bubble areas nationwide, but Cali was hit the worst, seemingly, as they were the most out of kilter with debt, infrastructure decay, immigration, crime and etcetera ).  Now, I hate Californian refugees as much as the next guy.  They poison, subvert and destroy the target destination.  As Florida was culturally decimated by New Yorkers and Jerseyittes, the West was crushed under the heel of those fleeing Cali.  But we do need to keep that event in mind.

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( Yes, I fled the state myself nearly thirty years ago.  I also didn’t cash in real estate to go help destroy other areas economically like most refugees ).  Californians destroyed their safe haven suburbs, then fled to other suburbs in response.  But they cannot escape the economic forces that destroyed their state.  Namely, shrinking federal government stimulus and uncontrolled immigration bankrupting localities.  There are other factors, macro-economically, but those are the immediate and hardest hitting.  But let us focus on this: where do those in the suburbs flee to now? 

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For those of you who swear that socialism is the residual form of all that is evil in the universe, as if corporatism and crony capitalism never did anything bad ( cough, Enron ), you’ll note that California was largely built by defense spending.  Dust Bowl era Oakies were fleeing to an agricultural state.  Only during and after WWII did the state boom economically to what we know today ( well, at least until the fall of the Soviet Union ) and it was all because of massive federal government money flowing in.  Government money made it the paradise, then made it a hell.

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Take Florida.  Remove Miami, as economically it is more aligned with Latin America.  Remove Disney World.  What is left?  Social Security checks.  That is what floats the Florida economy ( as well as Arizona’s.  Want to see their future?  New Mexico, a Mexican run government with the last of the economy leaving with the mines ).  Many parts of the economically depressed South in the Appalachia’s with no more factories are only held afloat economically by Medicare disability checks and other welfare.  California is no different, the crash so much more obvious as they were living larger on the hog.

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Texas will be the next California on the immigration front ( despite delusional State Pride ballyhooing, Texas is a one sector economic miracle-oil-and when that is in trouble all their immigration woes crush them ), and Florida will fall as hard economically as Social Security has issues.  Social Security might be largely solvent but Medicare is certainly not and since the medical industry is so large a part of the economy the solvency will not last long.  Now, ask yourself, how much of those two states are suburbs?  At least the currently economically viable areas.

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I’m not claiming that the suburbs will be death traps like the old ghetto Rust Belt cities.  The death of the suburbs does invite increased crime, granted, but totally rural areas are still meth havens.  Unless you are off grid, off road.  Divorcing yourself from macadam and power poles will be a pretty good strategy to REDUCE ( not eliminate, obviously, as has become too clear.  Also quite clear is the new normal of ALWAYS being armed on you country property.  It is no longer paranoid, but proven ) your exposure to crime.  And for Christ sake, live in a better state.

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At a minimum, you need a Castle Doctrine, No Retreat state.  Crime is not as huge of an issue right now, as is economic collapse of the suburbs.  Crime WILL exponentially increase, granted.  But you flee now to avoid the economics of the situation.  You need to cash out while you can.  If you don’t, you are stuck with a tax pig in an area that will then turn into a “little Turd World country” ( little Saigon, little Tijuana, etc. ).  Then you will become an Internet Meme ( the White kid in the Black classroom, “this will be fine” ).

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Rural, with reasonably accessible village or hamlet.  NOT suburbs and not cities.  If needs must, a small town.  But give up on the suburbs.  If you aren’t serviced by a waterway or a railway, you’ll probably be one of the first to lose all trade.  After you’ve been financially hammered and surrounded by a ghetto.

( .Y. )

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