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Thursday, February 7, 2019

sunk cost calculations 2


SUNK COST CALCULATIONS 2
We left off yesterday with “excuses verses justifications” so far as sunk cost calculations.  I’ll use my two favorite examples, rice and firearms.  Let’s talk about rice.  You know I hate it.  I know you know I hate it.  BUT.  Most minions seem to prefer it.  I simply have no counter argument for that because stocking what you hate is the same as stocking nothing at all.  You MUST eat what you store and store what you eat.  What one minion tried to patiently explain was that he wasn’t even stocking food, but filler.  I finally got that.
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To me, you stock grain because that is 95% of your calories.  So from my point of view rice, being as worthless as white sugar because it is empty calories, was the last grain you wanted to count on.  Even if your choice is between whole wheat flour or white flour, the wheat is superior in satisfaction ( fullness, energy ) and health.  But to minions, mostly, they had the finances to stockpile better higher grade food ( animal proteins, natural fats, variety items ) and the question of grains went from primary and lifesaving to merely a filler.
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You know I’ll never stop pushing wheat and wheat accessories but at least I understand minion’s points of view more now.  But I will say that as time goes on into the collapse my dietary advice will reign supreme, as discretionary budgets shrink ( as ammunition goes way back up, for instance ).  Soon grain will become most of your diets ( or, at least for new, desperate preppers ).  This scares all of you as you all are spoiled with food, quantity wise.  I’ve always relied on wheat and always made room in the budget by minimizing food.
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All that out of the way ( and I do apologize for the miscommunication on my part ), a HUGE reason and or excuse I ALWAYS hear is that rice is just easier and wheat must have a grinder.  I’m not sure if it is the fear of manual labor, the cost issue or if that is just an excuse.  But let’s assume it is JUST the cost.  I won’t use the example of the cheapest grinder, because although it is a rugged tank of a mill, it does take quite a bit of work.  I’ll go with the easiest “budget” mill.
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If I’m recalling correctly ( beanie propeller hat tip to Spud ), the “wondermill” is the unit I’m thinking of.  Quality build, easy to use but only half the price of the Cadillac units.  $240.  Yes, I belabor buying Victorian mills, since at $45 you can buy several ( never have one of anything ).  But I assume you all know I’m preaching to the poorest of the working poor and not all product advice is meant for those with a bit more cash.  Let’s just say you are old enough the Less Labor aspect is more important than the cost.
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Rice, in general, is twice the price of wheat kernels.  You’ll find swings in variance but it is a good general rule.  If you are buying 400 pounds of grain, which isn’t unrealistic even if just filler for a few year’s worth ( rice ) or fresh veggies ( wheat sprouts ), you’ve only saved $100 by buying wheat rather than rice.  You are still in the hole.  Anything under a thousand pounds and that grinder will never pay for itself.  So, again, I was operating under different assumptions.  I couldn’t fathom why you wouldn’t use a Victorian.
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Again, I’ve been using one almost my whole life. To me, grinding wheat is no different than any other kitchen prep activity.  To everyone else it is a foreign activity akin to being asked to weld your own bike frame together, when you aren’t a welder.  Or being asked to bicycle to work when a car is as natural to you as wearing clothes are.  So, a Victorian mill is as archaic and unnatural as a stone mortar and pedestal.  Seeing the Wondermill as the MINIMUM standard of mills, why indeed would you want to eat wheat flour you don’t like the taste of anyway?
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In this case, you are actually justifying your investment in a higher cost grain.  It isn’t an excuse.  In the case of gluten intolerance, you must stock rice, or a VERY expensive wheat alternative like millet or quinoa, and most likely it is cheaper to not even stock much grain at all but the now not so expensive higher foodchain items.  Hopefully for the gluten issue folks they can still eat it sprouted and can at least get those vegetables from a cheap feedstock. 
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Another justified sunk cost is an arsenal.  If you do it right for the apocalypse, you have a metric butt ton of cash already tied up in a “former choice” arsenal.  Don’t get me wrong, I love the Lee-Enfield.  It just isn’t perfect.  No gun is, not even the HK-91 as I’m sadly now aware thanks to a minion gleefully debasing me of the notion with pesky facts.  I don’t even want to switch over from it, even as I fantasize about AR’s ( one of my least favorites even if it is the most practical and affordable-my haunting visions are of gun control and the AR is THE ghost gun ).
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But if I wanted to?  I couldn’t. My sunk costs are incredible.  I only have about $600 into the guns, which was the cheapest part.  Bayonets are about $400.  Reloading has to be at around $1200 minimum.  And factory ammo is anyone’s guess but I’d wager around $1600.  I would have to match that for a minimum AR arsenal.  It took me twenty years to add up the first one.  And I know we don’t have another twenty.  My sunk costs make my weapon choice mandatory. 
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Now, granted, I also spent a lot of those earnings in the twenty years staying out of jail ( baby momma tax ), buying property ( way too much ), precious metals, then current wife tax ( I got $30 in aluminum recycling.  My guess is that represented about $2500 in beer-and that was just for a few years ), and etcetera.  Using no savings, I could probably do it in three now.  Six months if I went back to working at hourly pay, but none of us wants THAT.  The horror!  I’d rather stay poor, “under armed” and writing. 
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At least my writing isn’t really a fixed cost. It is a more immediate disposable commodity and hence more practice/skillset building than produced material I can leverage by itself.  Beelzebub himself reappearing in this realm generates more excitement and anticipation than my books.  But hey, the readers have spoken through their support, so blogging it is.  One hopes that channel stays open ( knock on wood ).  Okay, enough with all that.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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note: only for smarter minions with perfect hair, a clearance sale on 303 British laser boresighters.  Compared to the normal $15-18, only $3.50 each.  I bought several.  Act swiftly. click here .  Here is the Amazon pack of replacement button batteries for it here .  
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note: I am loved by other worthies almost as much as I admire myself.  Frank and Fern mention me here and 'Ol Remus has been showing unusual love and attention here.  Don't worry-it won't go to my head.  I know the attitude problem here ( "yes, but what have you done for me TODAY?" ).  I'm kidding.  But only under pressure is that diamond formed.  No rest for those seeking perfection ( at the risk of self-delusion ).
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30 comments:

  1. Sunk costs when used as an expenditure towards survivalism purposes or reasonings are an acceptable deviant behavior. If anyone (they don't, as my rationalization and explanations make logical sense, always win my arguments) had any negative commentary about my spending habits or choices, I would just play the victim card and demand that people must accept my choices, lifestyle, and virtue signal there are worse alternatives to have as a therotical neighbor. (Turn it around on them) Inflation and scarcity causes many choices to be winning decisions anyway. Also the "old as the new, new" makes you the cool kid all over later on. By sunk costs into your preps you are protest removing your resources from the beast systems, and preparing your self for it's sure to be eventual collapse. Winning!

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    1. You can't turn around virtue signalling on these people. Haven't you ever argued with a woman? You can't win, period. Conserve your energy.

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  2. This made the local news on our Fox 40 affiliate in Sacramento this morning. The female anchors cooed and awed over it. The mother (one assumes single) beams on proudly at her new “son” as the brother joins in on the gay festivities.

    With the current #metoo madness situation, one hopes that “his” first order of affairs as a new man, is to learn to keep “his” clit in his pants :D

    You know the situation is rather dire when you find yourself secretly rooting for America’s enemies :D

    https://abcnews.go.com/amp/GMA/Family/mom-celebrates-son-coming-transgender-sweet-photo-shoot/story?id=60855043

    https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2019/02/06/USAT/01cd0c65-3297-4afe-bc08-3adacc834674-Adrian_postx.jpg?crop=667,377,x0,y81&width=3200&height=1680&fit=bounds

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    1. "when rooting for America's enemies" Damn, that's a good one. I would be rooting for a cleansing of the big cities by nuclear hellfire, but I don't want the problems of fallout. People re-affirm my disgust with humanity every day.

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    2. I submitted it to Goodbye America. We’ll see if he posts it. But I can’t imagine a better candidate than that :D

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    3. Damn. It looks like a 3rd democratic politico in Virginia came out and admitted to being in black face. Virginia might be for lovers, but one must assume that it isn’t for ni _ _ er lovers :D

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    4. Yep, ISIS tossing aberrations off from tall buildings, and total clamp down of females sounds like swell ideas. Sharia patrols in N.Y.C. as defacto enforcers of their community is out of their necessity. If only so called western normies men would get off of their asses and don some knight templar armor and man up there may be a hope for change, but. but. ????

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    5. We are too soft and afraid. To rebel is to lose luxuries. Even our military and LEO's have it good-at least relative to their opponents or peers in Turd World countries. Me and you included.

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    6. Christ, I looked at that tranny thing, and wished I hadn't. No I don't. Those kinda things and all the other things around it will be virtual FPS video games in the near future. That shit needs to be flipped inside out and burned in place, and don't inhale the infected fumes.

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    7. I'm getting better about not taking the link bait served up by minions :)

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  3. Jim, could you do a comment on your view and experience with revolvers.

    Related, I noticed some rebel makes a filler plug to fit the hole in newer S&W revolver frames if you remove the PC trigger lock. Online wits call the empty space a Hillary Hole.

    Sunk Costs: The Heat quote also stuck with me. I take that view on the house. I keep it reasonably livable but dont do any luxury or improvements for the Jonses to see.
    I fully expect to walk away one day.
    The only things I consider an investment are small, portable and non-electronic.

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    1. Revolvers. Buy one, keep it loaded by the bedside. Oil it once in awhile. Don't worry too much about practice as the contact ranges make it hard to miss anyway. That is all. In the field? No. Makes no sense to me, as mobility trumps extra equipment. Better to carry a rifle that won't break, and if it does becomes a spear. Combat pistols are for pussy officers, so they finish themselves off after a sniper shoots the one without a long arm, or if one of their men frag them. Have I pissed off enough people yet?

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    2. Nope , I'll carry both an ACP and a rifle. CQB for the ACP and the rifle for all else.
      Bedside, a .45 Ruger Blackhawk and a twelve gauge pump.

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    3. I respect your real world experience, honestly. I just don't see it for me.

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    4. I’m not the dude from above, but I’m the minion that posted more recently inquiring about Taurus revolvers. It’s been many years since I’ve had my Ruger Service Six .357, but what I’m reading a lot of these days confirms that many of these newer revolvers have some kind of trigger safety, that on occasion, could jam up when you would least want it to do so. As such, I’d try to look for an older revolver, or one that doesn’t have the new fangled PC safety gadget.

      I suppose a semi-auto offers the advantage of a slimmer profile, and more firepower, so for most, it might be a better choice. But for me personally, I’d prefer the reliability of a revolver, that isn’t going to jam on me when I need it the most. A .357 magnum with a 4” barrel will reach out to a 100 yards with plenty of power to spare, no problem.

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    5. One of my motivations behind no semi's. There always seems to be a jamming problem. The only one I had free of that was the SKS. Yes, others mileage may vary.

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    6. Sig Sauer , to hell and back reliability.
      Of course there is a premium for this fact.

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    7. With all the companies trying to cut back on quality, I think now is the exact time you want to pay a premium for proven designs.

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    8. Buy a Webley revolver. Ive just found out that You can get them in 22lr

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    9. I missed on the boat on giveaway prices on Webley's. Sad trombone :(

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  4. I’m probably one of your less-enlightened minions - actually probably dumber than a rock, but what does the “:D” stand for in the comments section?

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    1. Just a variation of the smile :) It denotes more surprise or mirth than a mere grin. :D The mouth ajar for hearty laughing or a shocked expression. That is my take on it anyway.

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  5. Thanks! Since you’re the poor man’s version of Rawls, I didn’t expect such sophistication.

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    1. You get more bonuses here than just my perfect hair.

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  6. Grinding grain by hand takes a lot of energy. You've probably done it when hungry like I have? You have to put muscle into it which wears you out physically and psychologically, pretty quick. Of course this is only relevant when you're hungry, and I imagine after the grid goes down, we'll all be hungry more frequently, even if we have "plenty" compared to others.
    Peace out

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    1. Yes, valid observation. I need to pre-plan grinding for the next day, only doing so after I've eaten. It does help to do small batches. And fresher is better anyway.

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    2. Some mills take less energy than others and can make the fineness of flour needed in one pass.
      The Country Living is expensive, but will last decades. They sometimes sell at a discount mills with a blemish in the powder coat finish. Dollar cost per year comes way down ten plus years of use.
      Also having the mill attached firmly to a rock solid table or counter top helps. That way you aren't wasting energy trying to keep the mill and table from moving and can concentrate on cranking.
      Having someone else around to take turns grinding helps.
      An extended length of handle for the crank wheel adds leverage and makes a big difference. The CL add on to extend the handle is called the "power bar". I think the red mill made in Montana has something similar.
      Also, grains such as buckwheat, oats and barley are easier to grind than the harder wheat berries.

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    3. Something just sticks in my craw about a $500 mill. Hell, I just spent $200 for lead. That I'll most likely never use. I'd use a mill every day. I have the money. I just feel I'm being the mark in a rigged game. What, I don't get enough of that already? I read about the Wonder Mill all the issues I have with the Victoria, at six times the price, all I'm getting is easier grinding. At twelve times???

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  7. $459 on Amazon.
    I'm the same way with weapon spending, laying out bucks for something that may never get used.
    Ratio of firearms to home grain mills is probably something like 5,000 guns to 1 grain mill. If you have anything to process grain into flour besides two rocks, you're already the rare individual.
    Keeping in mind the food first axiom, I have No problem investing in one. Tools I use all the time, I get something decent, avoid Harbor Frieght level of dissappointment and frustration, and move on.
    But I get you on how much everything costs. I'm about your age, and sometimes my basis for comparison is 30 years out of date.

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    1. Our price comparison bias is indeed thirty years out of date. Yet I don't think that is unreasonable given our thirty year freeze on wages :) I actual spent more on a Corona 30 years ago than they cost now ( just like most did with their AR's ). So, all that government inflation lying comes from TV's, AR's and grain mills dropping in price :)

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