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Sunday, February 10, 2019

last chance silver


LAST CHANCE SILVER
I’ve already said this when silver was $14 or $15 an ounce, and back when it is the same as right now, $16 an ounce.  This is about THE last chance to buy silver this cheap.  And I’m telling you again, BUT hang in there because I also want to follow that up with the question, “what can I barter with once silver gets up to insane levels and takes that commodity off the table as a viable trade unit?”  Because while I’m not 100% positive enough to bet everyone a jelly filled donut I’m right, I’m still pretty Gott Damned positive.
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First off, most workers are going to be making about $15 an hour or more.  And historically you get paid about one tenth an ounce a day for labor.  This of course went up during the Industrial Revolution to about an ounce a day, but that was high compared to the historical (as in, last several thousands of years prior ).  Since most minimum wage workers have no skills, they are obviously grossly overpaid at an ounce of silver AN HOUR!  Any way you look at it, silver should be at least ten times more valuable by labor costs.
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And once industrialization is gone and petroleum no longer subsidizes labor, silver should be worth ten times that.  So silver should be a minimum of $150 an ounce today.  That is JUST based on petroleum subsidized labor wages.  The central banks are holding down silver by derivatives manipulation ( leveraging way past prudence ) so as to buy up physical bullion.  They rigged the market and are obviously banking ( get it?  Bankers, banking ) on the price HUGELY increasing.  JUST on a rigged market basis you will see a ten times return in constant value dollars if you buy silver now.
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Prior to Industrialized mining, where the vast majority of above ground gold and silver comes from, silver was worth $1500 an ounce in today’s dollars.  Which means your $15 an ounce silver is going to increase one hundred times in value, not ten. Ten is a minimum and a hundred is a probable.  But wait!  That is just silver based on the silver to gold ratio which was 95 to 1 prior to the Spanish New World silver, down to roughly 50 to 1 average the last hundred years. 
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If silver should be a MINIMUM of $150 an ounce, gold should be at least $7500 an ounce.  Which means the 1980 gold price at the height of the panic was at least three times too low to even be an accurate historical minimum.  At maximum values when silver is 100 times today's price, gold would be $75,000 an ounce and silver $1,500 (  absent completely any carbon fuel availability ).  But this isn’t even getting interesting YET.  If all that isn’t enough, NOW we get to take into account the silver destruction.  You know, the unrecoverable silver used in electronics.
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NOW, unlike any time in history, we have TEN times the amount of gold above ground than silver.  Actually it is something like 8.5, but electronics demand is an exponential growth every year and before  global demand destruction is done, we should be seeing that increased 1.5 percent in the disparity of available silver to gold.  So let’s just call it ten times gold to silver.  Ignoring all historical rates of labor prior to the Industrial Revolution, only going by the minimum rate of banker manipulated markets adjustment, if gold should be $7,500 an ounce than silver is TEN times that.
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Silver at $75,000 an ounce is ludicrous.  Most likely.  At $750,000 it seems completely insane, a babblers fevered dream ( this was assuming gold was $75,000 and there is only one tenth the silver supply as gold ).  I can’t even conceive that is anywhere possible, because that ten times multiple was at a maximum solar powered energy only population and prior to New World discoveries.  It would take a global if primitive sail powered trade to see silver back up to $75,000. And that would be pushing the bounds of probability to the maximum.
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Granted, other variables are drastic population decreases dropping the value of precious metals.  But that might be countered by the historically new complete lack of future growth in production, as ALL mining will forever cease when the carbon fuels are gone.  Still, all this gives you some perspective of how undervalued silver is today.  If just a fraction of adjustment occurs, silver will become completely Richy Rich insane in value.  All those plans you had of using pre-1965 dimes to trade with?  Now completely unrealistic.  The good news is, any silver you own now will increase AT A MINIMUM to gold prices as seen today.
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So the bad news being “you need to find another medium of exchange” don’t seem so bad, does it?  If you want a low valued coin for trade, go heavy now on pre-82 pennies ( ‘82’s are a mix, ’83 up are all zinc.  Best to avoid ’82 also ).  There will be plenty of copper salvage, so the coins won’t gain THAT much value.  But it should be worth sorting pennies regardless.  Just them being minted will be worth a premium. There are YouTube videos on making your own sorting machine, or put the kids to work.
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That probably won’t become the preferred medium of exchange however.  More likely will be cigarettes.  They won’t be worth their weight in gold.  Prices for coffee and tobacco WILL be insane, as primitive transportation trade is a premium.  But they won’t be a “supply never increases” item.  But they will go at far above today’s prices, even in insane tax policy locations such as New York City or Hawaii.  I can’t imagine them going for less than two hours wages a pack.  And your cost to store them is currently $1.20 material cost. 
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Add ten cents for that Mason jar to keep the tobacco moist, and another dime for equipment cost for a total of $1.40 a pack.  Your minimum return should be the equivalent of ten times that.  The original articles on this cigarette construction were March 1st 2016 and May 10th 2016.  Obviously, prices have risen slightly since then.  You see cigarettes being a historical barter item, after WWII and in prisons.  I can’t NOT see a return to that. 
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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note: okay, seriously now, this has got to be the WORST end of the world movie EVER.  On Vudu, free with ads, is "Global Meltdown".  I normally have little patience with bad movies, but this was so bad it was funny, a train wreck I couldn't look away from.  The bad acting and low budget with hideous CG effects were about standard, but the truly bad part was the script.  It was written by a retard far left of Hilary Clinton, puking up every bad stereotype of survivalists and enjoying the taste.  It was a wonder to behold.  You have simply got to revel in its politics and ignorance.
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33 comments:

  1. Hhmmm? Much to think about there Jim. I avoided gold due to it's higher valuation and being difficult to divide down for normal trade items transactions. This would make silver become also difficult to divide it's higher valuation for farmer's market type purchasing. (Not buying a whole donkey cart load of perishables for one coin) Also not inclined to credit ledger type of sales where my coin buys some stuff today and remaining balance is logged into HopSing's mercantile shopkeeper book. If there is full on collapse of banking and payments systems and a repudiation of federal currencies, then all bets are off and straight barter economy will spring up overnight. Then that storage unit of hard goods like grain mills, oil lamps, hand tools, etc may see their day in fluid commerce.

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  2. I've re-read the article twice or three times my normal several for editing, and it still is a bit jumbled for my taste. Almost too much info. Maths be hard, yo! But yes, boil it down and silver is the new gold, but only good for wealth preservation. And NEVER for trade. Got wheat?

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    1. Lord Bison,
      I was reading somewhere about 3 years ago a good reason to save some rolls of current production quarters. The writer believed that when governments issue new currency (devalue it like 1 new for 10 old!) They do not recall the coins in circulation because it is to much work. The coin in circulation increase in value!

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    2. Any currency or coin not grown will be a good store of trade value due to lack of inflation. But will the dollar be devalued? Cash use is mostly discouraged. Inflation might just be the excuse to outlaw cash altogether, then the electronics have no problems with zero's being added. In that case, both bills and coins gain value in trade. Not saying it couldn't happen, just that I have a feeling we won't survive nationally to worry about currency being re-issued.

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    3. Lord Bison, You mentioned the "never for trade" idea for Precious Metals, with the exception of Bride Price and existential exchanges (productive land, heavy weaponry, mercenaries?)that will benefit your tribe for generations in a previous article.

      Disagree with your assessment of a pre-1965 US Dime as too valuable to use as money, but kind-of agree that the value might be similar to how a 1/10th oz of gold spends now. A silver dime has 0.0715ozT per coin, and is the least-expensive (lowest premium) identifiable coin on the market. I have bought them for One Cent over silver content value during 2018 (depending on the day, around a buck-ten each) from local coin shop.
      Check on details of maths at srsroccoreport.com. I remember silver coming out of the ground at between 9x and 16x the rate of gold (current ore grades are pure-suck at as low as 1 gram AU per 1000KG of rock being called "ore" when Oregon/California/Alaska gold rush rock had OUNCES per ton). Steve St Angelo has mentioned that it takes 38 gallons of Diesel fuel per ounce of gold produced, much less for silver, so availability and price of fuel is an important input for miners.

      There is a real possibility that the US Dollar will INCREASE in value vs. other currencies as the rest of the fiat currency in the world loses faith. This could cause pm's to get very-cheap briefly. To wait for this is to attempt to catch a very sharp falling knife, when all you have to do is own pm's now and hold tight.

      On saving rolls of modern coins: Nickels are approximately worth five cents as scrap metal now (copper/nickel). A currency revaluation could include coins at face value into the new system at 1:100 (drop 2 zeros), or domestic stainless steel production could need the nickel content at a premium over the value of the coin. No risk, except time.
      pdxr13

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    4. IF, and yes I agree it isn't set in stone with just a good probability, if silver gets to that current purchasing power of $7500, I wouldn't have wanted to get rid of a single thin dime. 99.999% of folks believe silver is scum, pocket change, just a means of exchange. The one guy who just holds his silver regardless can become wealthy with almost no investment or money ( well, his heirs will be rich, after the Dark Age ). It is really just a gamble. Buy now for little, and just rely on something else for barter. To me, it is just putting back a famous rare panting you happened to get at a garage sale for $20. Waiting for the right time, it pays off a nice house. We all know that only kings had gold, yet fail to calculate that out to how valuable the coins were ( I blame D&D for planting the seed the stuff was just lying around. Thanks, Gary! )

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  3. Hi, Jim, hope it's okay to call you Jim, since your name is.....Jim.

    A number of years back I used to pay Chris Martenson for his expert opinion. He even featured us one time, not economics of course, but I think it was making butter, or something like that. But I did pay him for a few years and we had correspondence a few times until I asked a simple question.

    What is gold worth when the dollar is worth nothing?

    Never heard back, and I asked that on the forum portion of his site for all to read. No answer from anyone. So, I asked it again. What is the value of gold when the value of the dollar is zero? Again, no answer from anyone.

    We all tend to blow smoke up each other's ass about what things are worth. I believe there are only two precious metals. Lead and brass. One 22LR is worth a pound of gold when the dollar is worth nothing.

    I agree with your assessment of tobacco, but not pennies. Seeds will be worth more than pennies, and a corn still, for medical purposes of course, will be worth the cost of diamonds.

    We'll talk more later, Frank

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    1. Gold isn't tied to any currency, but I take it your question is, how is gold worth anything in a collapse? The answer is, it isn't worth a wet fart in a hurricane. Gold is the timeless currency that no government or bank can control. But without trade gold is no good to you, other than transferring wealth to your descendants. When trade is in effect, gold is a trading chit, nothing more. When trade is impossible, gold is only good once trade resumes. For preppers, gold has one use. Not trade. Not fighting inflation. Preserving your wealth. But most think that wealth can be cashed in. It cannot. It is just a vehicle to transport wealth through the Dark Ages ( when no trade is possible and economies are local ). That is why I say PM's are the last thing to buy ( or at least, not to be bought at the expense of PM Brass or Food ). I don't agree silver should EVER be used in trade. Anything you need you should have now and anything you need later should come from your tribes efforts. Most folks still think pre-65 silver coins are good for apocalypse trade. I hope I killed that with this article. I'm saying, bury the silver for your great, great grandkids, and trade with other things. I only include pennies as it is so cheap to prep for there is no harm. I'm a proponent of inter-tribal trading ONLY, also. Don't give ANY manufactured items/Industrial Age items away to today's friends/tomorrow's enemies. Only renewable items. Hope that covers most of it.

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    2. Not sure if I used "inter-tribal" correctly. In case I didn't, Within Your Own Tribe Only.

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    3. I read your intent as 'intra-tribal', within the tribe.

      I see 'inter-tribal' as crossing the tribe boundaries to trade with other tribes.

      But I could, again, be just pretending to be really smart. Sounding.

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    4. When I re-read it, it didn't look right and so I wanted to quickly add the retraction. No time to look in the dictionary! Quick, try not to sound like a moron! All hands on deck. But yes, yours does sound what I was going for. Thank you. The small dictionary is nearly worthless and the extra large one is much better but a pain to use. And I hate using online help which is rarely any help. All this explanation, I already could have looked it up :)

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  4. Minion home work assignment tonight: watch the grammys musical award show on t.v. Yes, no matter how painful to bear, it will revalidate why you prepare for the certain coming collapse. Got wheat, lots and lots wheat?

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    1. But can you still prep, after being brain damaged?

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    2. Watching the Grammies hurts as much as a half gallon of Old Crow.

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    3. Without the initial feelings of happiness and bliss.

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  5. Good post. I’d prioritize as follows:

    1. Food.
    2. Clothing (Clothing and shelter are nearly the same priority. I only put clothing slightly ahead because with good clothing, you could still survive a less than perfect shelter).
    3. Shelter
    4. Precious metals.
    5. Give to the United Negro College Fund. Because a mind is a terrible thing to waste. (Nah, just kidding. Any additional funds would probably be better invested towards more of 1 through 3 :D )

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    1. I could be mean and say, hey, they didn't waste any minds on the recipients to begin with, but then I'd just be a hater. I will say however, there is a LOT of bad hair days for all those applicants.

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    2. Where da blow and hookers iz?
      Anda gunz, anda flirz?

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    3. I have to carefully dole them out, so they don't fade into the background. :)

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    4. "Food is first, always" - Mr Fancy hair

      I personally think that water is in there with food. So a water filter and water storage.

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    5. No one should be living in a spot that relies on carbon fuels to lift water from deep underground ( unless you have a rain catchment ). And if you can't afford a filter there is always fire. So, water is about like air, as far as I'm concerned. Not to be squandered or taken for granted, and to be planned for, but it simply is too readily available to worry over as you would food. In Oz, you can move closer to water. But from what I understand your wheat areas have serious salt encroachment issues. I'd be way more worried about my grain supply. Sure, don't be living in a city that will be seeing supplies dry up. So storage isn't something you completely ignore. But for now, that is nearly free to solve. Not so calories.

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  6. New movie coming out!

    Jason Statham will play "The Complexifier" action thriller about a billionaire that goes rogue to destroy an evil tabloid who violated the rules of journalism.

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    1. Sorry, but...??? I'm a little slow right now. Upset stomach so less coffee, then I waiting too long to eat and dumped a bunch of greasy food down. Sometimes I'm such a dumb ass. But then, you people listen like I was EF Hutton. :D

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    2. I'll assume you're familiar with Statham and his Transporter movies. He slightly resembles beezo's (amazon). Apparently recently someone hacked bezo's phone and grabbed some pix he took of his dik and turned the pix over to National Enquirer. NE sent beezo a message about the pix and in his reply back he made up a word "complexifier", meaning, the situation is complex. It's a big joke all over the toobz lately.

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    3. Familiar with the movies, yes. Started reading about Bezos and National Enquirer, but stopped and moved on. Didn't get any details. Not sure what is so complex with a dingus, though. I get the joke now, I just wasn't in on it.

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    4. I don't know much, just some of the headlines. Now, it seems, if you don't grab an article immediately you can't find out what's going on after the fact. All subsequent articles assume you already know whats going on. Like you, when I first saw the Bezo thing a couple days ago I didn't pay any attention. Another billionaire. yawn Then this morning I saw something again about it so I delved but too late, the trash conveyor moved on. So I don't really know what happened. Seriously, I have no problem with the boy but I do wish he'd get in some ass and clean up amazon. Set a clean-up crew on the bullshit reviews, get a handle on the mismanaged sellers, etc. You know, take care of business already. Other than that I don't care what he does with his dik or anything else. He has little to no influence over me.

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    5. All you can do when someone wants money to not release pictures of you is to put a price on their head for the extortion and publish the pix in the New York Post. That'll teach 'em.

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    6. Bezos can probably just call the AG of the perps area and get 'er done legal. Send the bastard into the sodomy tank.

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    7. GS-It could be worse. At least his company is run better than most others. Asking for perfection might be asking for way too much. Like the conveyor belt image. So true

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  7. Barter can't be safely conducted unless the rule of law is reestablished. Probably the only exception would be a situation with someone you already know, like, and trust, where you could have a "mutual gift exchange." At least one party in the barter transaction is usually desperate for the desired item. The only thing stopping "desperate barter guy" from killing you and taking the thing he needs so bad is his internal moral compass. I'm not willing to take that chance. I doubt the viability of cigarettes for barter. You'd already be hiding out until the majority of the die-off occurred before you would chance any social interactions. I just doubt the likelihood of any addict making it past the die-off stage to the rebuilding stage. As an example, I have a friend who is a self-admitted coffee addict. Not many people would look down upon a coffee addict because it's considered socially acceptable. I asked my friend, "What would happen if there was x event and your addiction sourced from 3000 miles away was no longer available?" The answer was along the lines of "By the second day I'd be a really nasty person that would be hard to live with and that nobody would want to be around." Doesn't sound like a good candidate to make it past the die-off. If there's someone in your life like this that you care about, I recommend keeping a supply of their coffee or whatever to gradually wean them off of it so the withdrawals aren't as severe and they have a chance of making it.
    Peace out

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    1. I have no doubt if the smokers die off ( because with today's prices you can't stock up ), there will arise new ones. You just came back from a combat mission, you light up a smoke. Ah. The pause that calms. Your buddy says, hmmm, that looks like just the ticket. Or, a long ago smoker who had quit, under the stress of a collapse of civilization, wants to start again. I don't think re-supply will come back soon enough to make it a long term trade item, but it should in theory be a great one while it lasts. The guy with a greenhouse and seeds will make a killing. A better barter item will take over, but I'm at a loss as to what. Rimfire? I'm not sure I'd want it, quality control wise. But possible. Who know what everyone will agree on. It might merit some pondering.

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    2. I will want MY rimfire 20 years on, because it's been vacuum-packed in useful small packages (50 or 100), in an ammo can, below grade in a plywood cabinet. No changes in humidity, no vibration, very-small temperature variation per day and some per season (+52F is nice?). If very-bored, sorted by rim thickness to reduce variation in seating, which may improve precision groups.
      .22wmr extends effective range/less drop than .22lr, but at 5x to 20x cost-per-round. I would call .22wmr a "boutique survival cartridge" (not stocked by US Army for regular soldier use) for fun combo like Kel-Tec PMR-30/CMR-30, esp. when cheap 9x19mm hp can be stockpiled (like the IMI/Federal 115gr hp *excellent!*, now out of stock at sgammo). Everything is a trade-off; cheapness, weight, round count, re-orderability, reliability, commonality. "One helium ion phaser with 200 year zpm magazine, please."
      pdxr13

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    3. The last rimfire I bought that I trust was ten cents a round. The several thousand after that ended up with terrible reviews ( Remington Golden and Thunderbolt ), but bought as half the price. I'm worried anything I barter will end up being the current crap-no longer trustworthy-and I can't exactly assure quality.

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