merry christmas 1 of 3 ( article 1 of 2 today )

MERRY CHRISTMAS YA FILTHY ANIMALS
( article 1 of 2 today )

Yes, I know, it’s six days after the blessed event ( sarcasm-okay, I’m a bit LESS of a Grinch this year.  I just don’t know if I’ll ever recover after a lifetime of abuse at this time of year ).  I’m writing this on Christmas Eve.  And the title was me channeling the Predator Vs. Santa video which I’ve been watching at least twice a day since it came out.  It simply won’t get old.  Twenty years ago there was the computer game Elf Bowling to vent my holiday frustration. Now there is this short clip.  Santa doesn’t buy the farm, but close enough.

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Do any of you remember the game?  They have a version to download now called “super” Elf Bowling, but I’m wary of any upgrades.  How do you improve something so perfect?  Any time they try, they gay it all the hell up.  And not gay as in happy and not gay as in Happy Alternate Lifestyle they try to sell us on ( you know, because people really are Gott Damn stupid enough to think their ass is anything other than Exit Only ), but gay as in hurtful prison violation type gay. 

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But enough of Christmas and homosexuals.  Not two subjects that go well together.  I want to discuss whether we have seen the end of being able to kick the can down the road economically.  So, why the  article title?  Because by next Christmas, rather than sipping warm ejaculate alcohol drinks like egg nog ( seriously-what was anyone thinking with that drink? ) and roasting chestnuts, I’d wager more than likely you’ll be roasting dog over the fire outside your cardboard box under the bridge ( okay, a bit hyperbolic.  The title refers to the sentiment you’ll have next holiday ).

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I honestly don’t want to engage in Fear Porn here.  Far too many publications use this device as if no one ever catches on they are crying wolf.  We all know This Sucker’s Going Down.  Timing is impossible and hence unnecessary.  You stock the basics, yesterday, and tomorrow improve and expand on that.  No reason to panic.  To me, this and most of my writing is merely academic.  Thought exercises.  I try to instill urgency rather than fear.  But mostly, if you are blissfully unaware or tragically under prepared, nothing I say will matter. 

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To me, I’m just interested in the answers.  With you, I just hope to dispel any lingering notions of optimism.  Can the can be kicked down the road again?  It has so many times.  Can it happen again, without resorting to the usual fear mongering “nay! Of course not!  This time it really is different”.  How many times has eminent demise been forecasted in the last fifty years?  Sure, eventually they will be correct.  But that doesn’t make it feel better after you have once again panicked and then watched…crickets serenading you.  I’m not trying to panic you.  Like I usually do J

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I do tend to get overly dreary when it comes to such things as our energy supply future.  That crap be scary, yo!  That is food we are talking about.  But economic collapse?  We have all been there and gotten the T-shirt.  We can’t handle decreased energy supplies well, but we do know a thing or two about hanging in there in a really crappy economy.  So, when I’m talking about that can not being kicked, I’m speaking of the end of surplus and luxury, not the end of civilization necessarily.

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We MIGHT have more tricks up our sleeve economically.  I contend however that most likely we probably don’t.  This time we just might be so saturated with debt that nobody will be able to assume any more.  And THAT right there is what is going to cook our goose.  Debt has been how everyone at every level of society has coped with economic decline for the last near half century.  Well, okay, it was actually using more and more energy to get less and less returns, but that is the view from the macro level.  But fundamentally, each entity HARNASSED that energy through debt.

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Now, I don’t care what the federal debt is.  I don’t care how much debt was created by all the central banks globally in the last decade.  None of that matters because our net energy supplies are in decline and have been since 2005.  Decreasing REAL levels of energy mean declining economics until collapse.  None of the debt can be repaid because there is no surplus energy available to do so.  So the numbers really are meaningless.  The only thing that matters is, can we keep paying the interest?  It doesn’t matter how much the Titanic cost, just its monthly payment.

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I don’t care if that is a terrible way to run a budget.  Of course it is.  That isn’t the point.  The point is, it is the only option we have for running all of our budgets now ( household, government, corporate ).  Now, obviously, there is hyperinflation.  Which is all that Quantitative Easing was.  BUT!  It was paper asset inflation rather than commodity inflation, at least, which was our saving grace ( I don’t call a house a commodity but rather a paper asset due to the extreme valuation which is usually at Amazon stock levels of unreality ).

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Real inflation, making it impossible to eat rather than just impossible to buy an overvalued McMansion ( or afford Health Mis-Care ), is certainly possible.  The fact it ruins economies didn’t stop the Founding Fathers from using it to discharge all debts, nor the Confederate States.  But once it is used the economy is over and done for good ( since we’ll no longer have the ability to extract ANY energy overseas, which is STILL half of our supply even with “fracking energy independence forever” ) and so really doesn’t need to be calculated.

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A slow and steady cannibalization is already Business As Usual.  That is the level that needs to be maintained if the elite don’t want the Yellow Vests to become the new fashion statement.  Once hyperinflation is introduced it is Balkan-Rwanda time.  So it isn’t going to be an easy fix such as cranking the printing presses ( not to say it won’t happen.  We almost had nuclear exchanges many times during the Cold War. Accidents or bad judgments can always prevail. Here’s hoping against that ).  So far, unaffordable debt has taken the place of too high of inflation.

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What causes me a bit of concern is the increasing interest rates these last three years.  It is a very slow process, and that is good.  It allows adjustment.  But it worries me that the central bank seems to think this is just another recession they are manipulating us in for profit.  To literally keep the system from collapsing they opened up the credit spigot full blast.  They almost act like it cured the collapse.  Rather than postponed it.  So they either are clueless and think nothing bad is going to happen, or they WANT to crash the western economy.

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While true that bankers were idiots before, crashed economies and then profited off of them, today is a wee bit different.  You know, that declining energy supply ( for the first time in five centuries ).  Good God!  Please don’t tell me the bankers buy into the fracking oil hype!  Or, they just don’t have any other choice.  If the derivatives market is collapsing and the leveraging is biting them in the ass, they would need more revenue to pay off the failing debts.  Without the extra income from rising interest they can’t arrest the derivatives implosion.

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To be clear, once the derivatives market of over a quadrillion dollars (  and yes, that is a real number ) fails, the entire global economy crashes ( Russia and China bartering isn’t JUST about halting the PetroDollar, but also a nice insurance policy against fiat currency failure ).  Yet, the derivatives bets have been some companies only profit ( which pay off, you know, debt ).  It is a rather convoluted hot mess.  But for now, we’ll just concentrate on the debt everyone is under obligation for now, as well as their ability to take on more.  Continued tomorrow.

( .Y. )

( today's related link here )

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