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Monday, April 10, 2017

empire implosion 2


EMPIRE IMPLOSION 2

The Druid Dude did a rather interesting analysis ( I usually do a little word association game to try to remember how to spell better because it is always better that you know it rather than if the computer does, if nothing else than for sharper thinking, and I’ve recently noted that the word analysis which is supposed to denote clear logical assembly of parts is started out spelled “anal”, which is where most folks heads go when they are supposed to be analyzing something.  If you ever wonder how my brain works, there ya go ) on the imperial system as exemplified by Rome.  And speaking of our favorite Druid, I notice he has kind of left his return to blogging up in the air, almost as if he is now too successful of a published author to be bothered with the proletariat masses and their insatiable need for free content ( speaking of free content, its biggest critic Orlov, that crusty Slav, has gone to PayPer View.  Not that a buck ain’t worth his writing, because it is, he is one of the few less irritating more logical writers O’Doom, but just a reminder that here you get almost free writing seven days a week rather than his one and your only cost is my Amazon commission-at worst, you pay a single buck for two additional books plus all that free blog goodness.  My generosity and greatness certainly does know few bounds ).

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The Druid talked of the imperial system as a pump that drew resources to the center from the periphery.  When the pump falters the center cannot hold ( was that Yeats? ).  Simple enough, right?  You drive to work at the periphery and earn a paycheck that you use to keep your center location, your house, in shingles and sewage flushes and heat.  The paycheck stops, so does everything keeping your house habitable.  But obviously, no empire willingly allows the paychecks to stop.  Greece fell as the first Western civilization ( if you don’t count the near East as Western, which I don’t as they weren’t White enough, even though the Greeks seemed okay with poking each other up the ass which, I don’t care who you are, doesn’t seem like a very good start to any civilization and is a cultural abnormality which is usually blamed on those non-western dudes ) when it couldn’t project enough force or protection to keep wheat imports coming in.  Rome seems to have learned from their lesson but they either didn’t care or never learned a far more important lesson which is that ALL empires crash and burn regardless of what you do because-and here is a very important take away lesson, Fracking Fags-overpopulation meeting resource depletion equals an Oh Crap moment.  They had a better, longer lasting run but in the end they rinsed and repeated.

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All empires die, which is why there were such the mental gymnastics involved in trying to deny the US was ever an empire.  All power includes eventual hubris, if not immediate-look at the BoyCheeto Trump-and ours was thinking we could excuse ourselves from history by way of benevolent corporate leadership.  EVERY empire EVER thinks that this time it is different because they are more special than all the others.  Sure, they all learned from the mistakes of the others, EXCEPT for that little resource availability issue.  Even the Third Reich which was painfully aware of its resource shortages only thought in short term accessibility rather than long term.  As is now quite obvious in hindsight, the Oil Age was a pretty short term affair and all petroleum superpowers are seeing their eventual demise as the oil starts to run out.  Oil Empires fall quicker as their resource requirements are exponentially larger than Solar Powered Agricultural ones.  A small detail you must keep in mind when comparing ourselves to Rome.  They lasted centuries, but there are not centuries worth of oil under our country and the amount we have NOW, not two hundred years from now, is insufficient to maintain our Imperial Capital as it is.  When you spend a Trillion With A “T” dollars on an airplane that simply doesn’t work but is supposed to be achieving us air superiority ( and I’ll quantify a trillion right now in case future readers see Zimbabwe hyperinflation, it is more than a years budget for ALL military branches and spending, to include nuclear deterrents, payrolls, base upkeep, adding new tanks or submarines, overseas deployments and etcetera ) you can kind of guess how well our military is going to handle hegemony loss.

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 Now I want to shift away from our present predicament-although have no fears as we shall return-and go back to the first Oil War, the War To End All Wars, World War One.  It wasn’t a hundred percent about the oil, as there was colonialism and economic competition involved which mucked up everything, and coal was far more important at the time even if this was going to prove to be the apex of its military use, but it was a fascinating time period as old empires fell and new arose.  The problem I think most of us have is that we have been so focused on the ascent of the United States as a global super power at this time that we lose sight of the demise of the other empires of the era.  I’m going to take my time shifting through the more obvious permutations involved but keep in mind the end result which is that empires, like revolutions, eat their young.  As in, those that benefited in the end were consumed and sacrificed.  This too is going to be our fate, which is far more interesting than just saying we must retreat to survive the sack and pillage of Rome On The Potomac.  Continued next I’ll cover the Berlin-Baghdad Express, English economic downturn, the Austria-Hungary empire and more.

END

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33 comments:

  1. Orlov knows his readership has too much money, this is about it, plain and simple.

    I never liked Orlov, because he tries to smuggle some very non-survivalist ideologies in his texts (very feminist guest posts, some articles about immigration that are very Soros etc.).

    His analysis of the soviet collapse was interesting enough, and everything he did since was based upon this credential. Just like FerFAL (talking about too much money...) Orlov had little else to contribute beyond describing what he saw.

    BTW, that guy's survival plan is to live on a small boat.

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    1. Orlov has enough to contribute to be more helpful than most ( we are talking about very low standards here, anyway ). My issue is his response to his readers lack of support, a bit too high handed. He thinks his work is so great he can do that, and I beg to differ. His work may be better polished but I believe my content to be far superior. Of course, I would say that, wouldn't I?

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    2. Your content is far superior because you've been walking the talk for years (I've been following you since 2004 and you never disappointed). You are not in some mysterious way smarter or wiser than most mortals or what have you, you only did what most other people only talk about.

      That said, you did these things from a higher perspective, i.e. you knew what you were doing all the time, and you sure have the big picture in mind. You are actually living the big picture.

      This is something that Orlov doens't do since he made a living out of his blog, and thus has to stick to cities, the internet, the readership, he has to attend conferences, yadda yadda.

      He think he's smart because he has a Bug-Out Boat instead of a Bug-Out SUV, but it's the same difference, he's dreaming a Yuppie Survivalism Illusion.

      My money is on the fact that he is just catering to his readership and himself is not at all into survivalism.

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    3. Last sentence, I'm sure you are correct. To a degree I now have his issues, tethered to the Internet to make my living writing, yet I think we differ in that I need a lot less to live on and my writing is my primary focus, not marketing or etc.

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    4. Ave...In reality a sailboat in many ways is far superior over an SUV. Or for that matter a BOL either.
      It requires no fuel and is capable of going anywhere near the planet. Something a log cabin in the hills cannot do.
      It is surrounded by a plethora of food too !
      Granted , there are limitations to that alternative.

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    5. I'd say the limitations are more severe than forty years ago when the concept was more viable. Repairs have gotten more high tech and a lot more overfishing has occurred.

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  2. So the basic overall problem is overpopulation meeting resource depletion, right?

    And the resources are finite so there is no recitifying in that direction. Thus, the only solution is from the other direction, the reduction of population. Right?

    If so, how much of a reduction, in percentage?

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    1. My belief is that globally we have so denuded our resources, ore and topsoil and water supply, that only a 99.?% is going to reboot for species survival. And furthermore, we WILL get that without trying any harder.

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    2. I agree that the % is going to be high- it has to be because of all the circumstances and population growth we have had.
      I think the range is going to be closer to 90%, and that it will not be instant (short a nuclear war with EVERYONE participating) instead we will see modern civilization (which requires about 95% of our current population to continue to exist at all) being the primary tool - probably through non-nuke based warfare causing the most of the die off. And with the advantages we are seeing many guerilla/freedom-fighters/terrorists have against the established governments I expect that much of this warfare will be exactly the same type we are seeing in syria and other middle eastern countries right now, but afflicting more and more counties including more and more previously first world ones (watch greece and asian countries especially to observe the spread) combined with an increasing resistance to allowing any except the most useful immigrants and refugees into other countries (aka very expensive bribes or incredibly useful skills like rocket science or brain surgeon).
      If you have the ability to get a second citizenship now do so ASAP, as those options for emmigrating from country to country are going to close up or increase in price quickly - and having the ability to go to another country for a little while while your former country goes through some sort of massive social upheaval could be a very useful prep option.
      Of course being far from urban centers, AND far from both establishment and rebel strongholds could also work well (hello, the North Idaho "redoubt" aka rebel stronghold #1)

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    3. Well, you know me and my "waterfall collapse" idea. I'm still of the mind too much food moves too far to NOT cause severe famines in most places. But that is just me being paranoid.

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    4. JJ- It's been said here before, but the US is a really big country. Even if there is war on U.S. soil, it won't be everywhere all the time. Going to another country where you REALLY don't fit in is like putting a big target on your back. If I had the money, I'd buy junk land in a few different places in the U.S. and stash a few basic supplies as places to flee to, rather than betting my money that the people of the world will embrace me as a refugee.

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    5. Oh I agree Anon 3:24,
      multiple pieces of junk land if you cant get into Canada or Mexico or ??? are a great idea. But if you have, say, a mexican passport even if a country you want to go to is blocking US immigrants or visitors they will still probably let you in with that Mexican passport.
      Why stay stuck with junk land in one country if you can buy some in another country as well?
      I am less worried about live conflict at where ever one might be living (though some places are more likely than others) than I am worried about a police state type response to unrest that refuses to let me live on my junk land because they are trying to monitor everyone and prevent rebels from meeting where they can gather and field a force before the rebels can be overwhelmed by police state troops.
      Pushing urban people into rural farm towns and rural farm people into urban ghettos are some of the first things the most heinous of tyrannies do - the only thing worse is when they send people to 'labor' and 'reeducation' camps. (" You owe on your student loans, since you are not gainfully employed in the private realm you get to join the Federal Coal Mining Force until you have repaid those loans - the bus awaits you outside, the armed military guards are for your protection! ")
      Being able to leave the country while that sort of thing is getting started or going on is an important advantage a second passport can grant you.
      Having a place to rest your head on the other side of a border is another good idea. (junk land! its what to invest in and vacation to!).

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  3. WW1 was the final death throes of the last traces of the Western (and Eastern) Roman Empire. The Hapsburg related royal families lost the last of their formerly near absolute political control.
    WW1 also showed the path to the abuse of the communist ideals that allowed for Stalin, Pol-Pot, Hitler, etc. to take over their various countries as Tyrants under the guise of 'worker rebellions'.
    Other than a very few localized occasions our civilization(s) have not been under a true free market, instead the force of organized crime/government steps in to tax and regulate all of it.
    Oddly though I think the era of organized crime and government may be coming to an end as a free market of communication (through the internet) and force (through gun powder weapons) begins equalizing everyone, only temporary charismatic leaders are able to take control anymore, and most people identify as at least somewhat opposed to the establishment - the establishments hijacking of the various movements that oppose the establishment (see the occupy and tea party movements) is the only reason the establishment hasn't been overthrown but people are beginning to flow between these sorts of movements and create new ones, faster than the establishment can easily keep up.
    But of course people also embrace any strong man that can promise quick and easy answers (no matter how wrong) when they are faced with economic pain, or even worse, hunger.

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    1. I think the issue we see now is that for the oil to flow, as well as the food, we NEED government however inept or corrupt. Government will end after oil except on a feudal level and then we lose gunpowder and Internet ( both Big Gov enterprises ) and we MUST keep the govt we get because without it we become bandit fodder. Humans will accept whatever level of force needed to feed them, regardless of Libertarian Hyperbole.

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    2. It seems to me that black powder is easy to make on a small village scale, utilizing sources that are either solar powered (nitrites and charcoal) or chemically prevalent (sulfur). Such blackpowder will probably be very inconsistent unreliable and unsafe in use, possibly to the point it will be relegated to only being used for cannons or other artillery. We might see a return to fortified towns like the frontier colonial times where they can be made, with nomadic tribes gathering more dispersed resources and herding appropriate ranging livestock, while towns will be trade, industry and farming centers. Of course these changes probably won't really be fully developed and in place until next century.

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    3. I would argue that human waste alone ( so as not to compete with farm fertilizer ) would be insufficient for much cannon use. You can use human urine for nitrates, so only feces would be available.

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  4. Don't forget the Egyptian dynesty.
    lasted for over 4 thousand years.

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    1. The Egyptian empire could stay local as their soil couldn't be denuded. They didn't need trade for survival as other western civilizations did. Plus they were surrounded by natural defenses.

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    2. And close inspection actually shows there were a couple of civilizations in the nile corridor, and once maritime power became sufficiently technologically advanced egypt got conquered by a more advanced empire (Rome) in spite of their natural barriers

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    3. The Chinese had different civilizations but one could also consider them "as one" culturally anyway.

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  5. The US was planning on having a war with the British Empire. The rationale was that war always happens between the declining & the ascending power. The outcome of the plans was it would end in a stalemate as Britannia Rules the waves & the US would eventually have conquered Canada.

    Fortunately for all involved the English has tired of being an Empire. WWI was devastating to us (I'm an Aussie & we are in the Commonwealth & it wasn't that long ago we had British passports) so the transition to the Us empire was peaceful & cooperative


    None of that is us bashing btw. I'm just pointing out historically we should have been enemies not friends so maybe this time it might be different? I wouldn't bank in it & would stockpile food but I'd prefer to have a stockpile of supplies & not need them than not have them & need them

    Lastly - wtf is it with your leader attacking Syria whilst Russians are running about? Don't start wwiii just yet 😠

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    1. Since the US invaded Canada twice, yep, we very well could have stayed at loggerheads. I don't think the UK got tired of empire, more like after WWI the elite had to share the spoils of empire with the working class and as it was in declining assets mode it unraveled quickly, even prior to the US demanding more assets to fight WWII.

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    2. Oh, PS, I'll have an article out in a week on Syria. Short answer, no worries.

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    3. Good< glad 2 C you might be being watching or lookin at more than porn and actually might C that there is more going on N the world than OIL,OIL,OIL!
      Ever think about buying 20 or 30 bags of fertilizer and saving that 2? Oh wait, you don't farm. Just grow sprouts. Yum Yum!

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    4. Anon 9:22 -
      All the fertilizer in the world wouldn't help in Jims AOO, the problem in his location is lack of water. Mining, Hunting, Gathering, Raiding, and Herding, are the only viable options for long term economic input where he is.
      Fertilizer makes sense in places where Farming can be the primary source of nutrition for the community. Something that the desert Jim lives in wont ever be very useful for.

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    5. True, although using just the river flood plain for potatoes MIGHT be viable if you could capture most goat/sheep grazing dung to add to the soil every year. Just as a supplement, done by the gals as the men scout and raid with hunting thrown in around holidays. A very small population.

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  6. Syria is all about the pipeline that might go through it. Will the gas field serving it be in Iran or under the Gulf (Qatar?). The Russians don't want a Southern pipeline to Germany, because it would compete with Russian gas (80% Gazprom) that the Russians can shut off if upset with Germany/NATO. Is that simple enough?

    There was no "poison gas attack" by Assad or the Russians. The CIA-funded "rebels" may have had an illegal poison gas stock that was bombed or otherwise leaked, or it may all be fake with corpse from a morgue. Hard to tell from my excellent Pacific Coast vantage. -pdxr13

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    1. I don't worry about Syria because all we can do is bluster and kabuki. The Russians actually have a record of defeating raghead guerrillas, unlike ourselves.

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    2. I believe the whole gassing affair , was nothing more than a misfortunate accident.
      There has been conjecture it was chlorine / phosgene gas....In other words someone's pool chemicals got mixed inadvertently. Chlorine and Hydrochloric acid got mixed together. Both common chemicals in any swimming pool supply.

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    3. How many swimming pools are over in that craphole? Point taken of course, but doesn't that seem more of a Rich Boys Problem?

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    4. Even in that crap hole , there are the rich and they have their pools.
      Just one gallon of acid coming in contact with concentrated chlorine would create a large gas cloud.
      Even household bleach mixed with ammonia is very deadly.
      It just seemed odd that the rescue workers were treating casualties with no protective gear and were doing so by just pouring water on the victims. This speaks of something not of wmd in type.

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    5. Okay, I get where you are coming from now, with the treatment described.

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  7. Battery acid mixed with salt water makes a toxic badness, esp. inside your sailboat. A good reason to have good ventilation, bilge pumps, and AGM batteries.

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