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Monday, January 30, 2017

ten year gore warming


TEN YEAR GORE WARMING

I don’t know if any of you picked up on my subtle hints in my writing, but I’m not overly fond of most people.  Sure, if you bought a strange dude a beer and sat down with him and let him chew on your ear for a time, nine times out of ten he turns out to be a swell fellow ( ten percent will always just be asswhores ).  Most folks are just like us, in general disappointed with life but still determined to make the best of it, accepting the wife will usually weigh in on the heavy side, the kids won’t do anything in their life past play on electronic devices and their only true friend will keep up and dying on them as a dog usually won’t live past about a dozen years.  The problem usually comes about because one, you refuse to buy strangers beer and two, you keep picking the ten percent.  So you just accept that people suck and try not to have too much interaction with them.  So, I don’t have too many folks I can poll on important issues of the day.  It is hard to find a consensus when you can chat up a whole two people.

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Talking to a couple of long term residents here ( three decades give or take a few years ), I get different answers with weather trends.  One says we’ve never had such a wet winter and the other says we go in ten year cycles.  This is my ninth winter here and all I could tell you is that my norm is one or two snow storms of one or two inches on the valley floors and that is about it.  Except this winter and last, we keep getting storm after storm equaling multiple years worth of snow, EACH storm.  I don’t know if this is Gore Warming or a Ten Year Cycle.  Well, I assume it is Gore Warming, given the other weather trends elsewhere, but I have little way of knowing for sure.  And that brings us to trends and the human ability to forecast them.  Trends and projections, forecasts and reading tea leaves are all like a rectum.  Everyone has one and they ALL stink ( okay, perhaps not one that just received an enema, was scrubbed multiple times with a strong soap and was sprayed with a dash of strong cologne, but as a general rule that area never smells very nice ).

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Humans are pretty good at ignoring anything that would create extra work for them, making poor decisions and in general only using their brains as much as they have to.  Look at our glorious leaders doubling down on derivative bets, quite willing to exchange a global super depression for a few personal fortunes.  Of course, having said that, it does absolutely no good to expect anything to change.  Human nature always shines over idealism.  So, knowing everyone, or at least close enough to everyone to make it a near mathematical certainty, are lazy and intellectually dishonest with themselves, why do we even bother with trying to discern truth by studying the teachings of others?  We keep trying to cash out the culture card and are getting an error message.  Culture is THE best tool we have for passing down wisdom without the need to re-invent the wheel.  So we blindly follow the custom of listening to Very Learned Individuals as we seek the One True Way. 

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But if that cultural institution is dysfunctional, we are wasting our time, aren’t we?  Yet most of us persevere for the simple reason we don’t know what else to do.   We can’t go by eyewitness accounts, boots on the ground, as everyone will show their rectum.  And each will be a little bit different.  Laziness and prejudice will color even something as simple as observing daily life.  If folks can’t agree on the general condition of the weather over time, how can they handle anything analytical?  It is little accident that the general feeling of non-tribesmen is that those strange ducks the liberals ( to encompass tree huggers and Politically Correct types and others of said ilk ) are using Gore Warming as a political tool to control them, as their science has all the legitimacy of hidebound geriatrics rigidly adhering to the Flat Earth Theory and the Earths central location in the universe.  When you don’t have very many solid facts, merely computer models, data clearly manipulated and a religious level fervor that a consensus makes for a solid scientific foundation, is it any wonder you are mocked and ridiculed? 

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It doesn’t matter if I believe them, not because but in spite of their methodology, because I also assume any opposing their views are guilty of the same emotional knee jerk reactions and assumptions.  You can’t give credence to very many people or viewpoints anymore, and for a very simple reason.  Everyone is fighting everyone else for that shrinking slice of pie, and that generally combative stance colors everyone and everything they do.  With everyone having an agenda, why believe anybody?  If humans have no compunction towards killing men, women, children or geriatrics to survive themselves in times of contraction, why is it so hard to believe they will lie, lie by omission, lie by a lazy intellect or simply lie for profit?  Lying is no where near as bad as murder, so you should assume a lower barrier of entry by its practitioners.  So how do you come about any conclusions, theories, viewpoints or personal forecasts to bet your life on? 

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You can’t just listen to one person, or group that worships that person.  You need a lot of information, a lot of teachers.  And you can only go with the one who makes the most sense.  Who uses the least sloppy methods of analysis.  And THAT is no easy task because then you must question your own assumptions to see if you are lying to yourself and are just finding facts to prove how smart you are to yourself.  Beware the sacred cows you worship. 

END

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12 comments:

  1. Get the hell outta my brain! LOL
    I could have written most of that cause it's been on my mind for some time now.

    There seems to be no consensus on anything with anyone any more. I almost get lonely just thinking about it. But then I remember I'm right and everybody else is wrong and I go on about my daily activities relieved some what.

    This is my 11th winter in a row here in the great white north and the last 4 have been becoming warmer than the one before it. Just last week I had to go get the grill tank filled so I could cook our suppers outside like people are meant to. For 4 days straight. In January! Did the same thing last Jan but only 2 days. Last week it was in the 70's and today it's in the teens.

    Gore warming? 10 year cycle?
    How are you to know with all the lying going on?
    Though the planet is getting crowded we are each alone.

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    1. Love that last sentence! Two smiley faces :) :)

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  2. Just a bit north of you we have snow we hadn't seen in twenty years. i have very unreliable sources telling me we are close to beating the sixty two day snow on the ground record! Which fits with the added water in the air due to global warming. We need more pessimism. We keep voting for optimists and we keep getting screwed. "make america great again" my cheeto inriched ass....

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    1. America will be even greater again. For the 1%. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow and think about added Cheeto King to Jackson, Jefferson,Reagan hall of fame.

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    2. ADDING, not ADDED. And I just had coffee.

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  3. Just as with anything else take a look at all the sides of a debate, their evidence, and their reasons for pushing their argument and decide how much weight to give it. And do NOT discount their opponents. Even flat earthers ~could~ be right, it is just very unlikely - and even if they were right how would that effect me? It wouldn't obviously. For global climate change the argument has much bigger stakes - if it is happening (human caused or not) it could easily end up effecting me through more and worse weather related disasters. If the contrary side is right then weather related disasters are STILL a threat just a lesser one. Either way my behavior doesn't need to change much - I still have to prep for weather disasters, just more of them to a greater extreme (including mobility to leave the great mid continental desert or flee before the advancing ice caps, which ever).
    A grain of salt for the best arguments, a shaker for the other, and determining what to do and how to act when/if the predicted issue comes to pass with appropriate preps...
    (My far fetched prep scenario is having my homestead fall through a time warp to an alien planet - survival short, long, and multi-generational becomes a real interesting situation in that case...)

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    1. I'd like a time warp back to the early 90's, please.

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    2. I'd take the anything from the american revolution on. At least if I could take my library and electronics with me. (yeah! solar power, yeah! instructions on how to make batteries and generators and smokeless powder. I would be the most beloved friend of the US military...)

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  4. How in the hell can a person make a projection with a few decades of data on weather. 4 billion year mother nature has been a fickle bitch. That's like thinking you understand a woman by the word hello on a phone.

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    1. Well, if you follow the inflection of her tone...:)

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    2. WEll you got me. many times have I heard a sexy hello followed by what a sorry low life SOB I was to be 4 hours late on child support.

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    3. FOUR HOURS!!!! A JELLY DONUT!!!!!

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