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Thursday, January 26, 2017

long term thinking 1 of 2


LONG TERM THINKING

I hope that by now you have come to the realization that not only do I try to be different than all those other swinging cheese dingus’ out there, I also try to cover topics from other angles or viewpoints.  I love playing Devil’s Advocate, and I love being the Gadfly Of The Survivalist Movement.  It’s good to be different, or you are just one of the lemmings.  I wanted to be a lemming I’d have stayed in a big city and worked my way up some retail chain in management like the evil ex wife #2 desired.  Stupid bitches and their monetary security.  Anyway, so as to not go off on a tangent, it being a super wonderful day ( first day in months the Christmas madhouse excess stopped and I actually was able to forego working overtime ) and I shan’t spoil it for myself, I’d like to look at short term and long term preps from the standpoint of probabilities rather than fantasy, consumerism or hobbyist paradigms.  One of the underlying assumptions I usually go by is Stock It Deep & Cheap.  This was popularly used by the El Supremo Idahoan Yuppie Scum Survivalist Guru to denote pallets of cases of ammunition for the never ending semi-auto arsenal de rigor for The Worthy. 

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Of course, said Guru got a great start doing so in the ’90’s when everything was cheap as the imperial forces flooded the globe with nearly free Siberian oil ( and as such, do not expect said location to gush petroleum too much longer ).  I applaud his foresight, as dumb asses such as myself were too caught up in supporting on grid families to take advantage of that one time bonanza.  Which is exactly what it was, and if you can’t see that after almost two decades I feel sad for you.  There simply cannot be any way to remove your head out of your ass at this point.   You can no longer stock high quality cheaply or affordably.  You must lower your sites to middlin grade preps.  So, my deep and cheap is for such things as wheat berries and thrift store clothes, not thirty caliber ammunition and twenty round magazines ( along with 300 gallon propane tanks and off road motor vehicles and etcetera ). 

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I started out recommending a one year supply of preps.  400 pounds of wheat kernels per person, a grain grinder, a water filter element and a surplus war rifle with some ammunition and a bayonet.  When I first wrote the book on that you could easily do so for under $500.  Now, not so easily.  You can still buy a quality European Mauser for $400, but most other rifles are too expensive and too beat to crap.  Your best bet if extremely poor is to buy the $100 single shot twelve gauge and use it as a procurement gun ( shoot someone with a better firearm, from ambush ).  If you want a new hunting bolt gun, with questionable quality, go back to the $400 figure ( once you pay tax and the $25 Fed Fee, a $300 gun slides a lot closer to $400.  And good luck finding too many $300 ones ).  Wheat is still $100 per head ( assuming free containers ) and you can get both the water filter ( Katadyn, not Berky ) and the grinder ( Corona brand type ) for about $100.  Ammo is no longer cheap, with a minimum of 35cents a round ( one is encouraged to only buy the steel cases if you have an SKS, AK, Mossin-Nagant or for the lucky few who bought them in time, the wicked cool Russian semi sniper rifle-one of my few exceptions to hating on a semi, since it has the ruggedness of an AK, with better accuracy, able to at one time buy 25 cent ammo for it ).

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So, figure $700-$1k for a budget stockpile unless you live in a forest where a shotgun is tactically advantageous.  But here is the thing.  Even with this bare bones budget prepping plan, this Peasant Prepper Plan ( now that the Finances book is complete, I’ll start on the Peasant Prepper book.  Alas, I must contain my excitement and only post a chapter when I’m completely fresh out of other article ideas.  The current book becomes my default article for those days I simply cannot think of what to write.  Therein lies one of my secrets in how I post day after day for years.  My other secrets are usually unknown even to myself.  Short story, don’t get too excited about said publication as I’m stretching out it’s introduction as long as possible ),  I never assumed a one year stockpile was adequate.  It was a great start, and one anyone could do pronto.  But I’ve always held to the belief that twelve months was simply too short of a time frame to prep for.  If the ass is falling out of civilization, how can a mere one harvest time frame be sufficient? 

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Most folks have a very bizarre concept of a civilization collapse.  They spend money prepping, being smarter than the average bear, take shelter as society crumbles, then the Worthies that survived join forces against the evil remnants and smite them, and a perfect society emerges to trumpets and what not.  A few men, those who actually experienced what it was like for an empire to crumble ( the few British authors that wrote realistic post-apocalypse books rather than Cozies ), thought otherwise, but the general folklore has it by Divine Writ that our glorious red, white and blue Yes This Time It Is Different, The Only Empire Ever Graced By God, U friggin S of A will return to its glory days after a purifying fire.  This is clearly looking at the trees in spite of the forest, because energy surplus builds empires, not attitude or gumption or religious fervor or The Right Skin Color.  When the empire is devoid of resources-and we are, except for our current military occupation of the middle east which is not going too great right now ( just because you are pumping the second or third most petroleum doesn’t mean dingus if you need four times what you produce yourself.  Nor does it mean much if all that volume is lower BTU ) -you All Fall Down.  Period, and End Of Story. 

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And what happens then?  We don’t rally round the flag and persevere or triumph.   We become American versions of African Bush Bitches ( reference to Eddie Murphy ).  We become grubbing savages fighting amongst ourselves.  It ain’t pretty and it doesn’t sell too many books or movies, but there you are.  We continue tomorrow.

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5 comments:

  1. During a surplus / the good times, it's easy to be patriotic. But when things get bad does anyone think someone in Texas is going to give two hoots for someone in Maine?

    The other day whilst making a delivery for my business (50 odd miles) I was thinking how that sort of distance for most people in todays society would be unfathomable to travel without using a motor vehicle (train / car / bus / motorbike). So what about longer distances?

    I'm in Australia and Perth to Sydney is 2,400 miles. That may as well be on the other side of the planet. There's no way should modern transport fail that aid will flow from one state to another.

    Some people will point out that these large nations existed prior to motorised transport. And that is correct. However those nations were filled with citizens of a higher caliber than today whom shared similar values. Todays nation state is a mish mash of people and religions held together by the threat of violence and the fact they don't have to fight for survival

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    Replies
    1. Per last paragraph, also note that large nation states-France or Russia or whatever-while pre-petroleum, had the infrastructure for same. We ONLY have a petroleum infrastructure, and cannot fit a more primitive on into its place.

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    2. Good point. I heard on a podcast about how cities in the past were designed with farm land within it. No such luck nowadays

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  2. Yeah, the single shot break open shotgun has a lot to recommend for it. Ed Harris wrote a good article about single shot 12s, worth anybody's consideration.

    http://www.hensleygibbs.com/edharris/articles/Single-Barrel_Shotgun.htm

    I own a couple of 'Farmers Friends', they aren't fancy and recoil is pretty stout with full power 12 gauge. But tbey are durable as hell - a very good gun to press into a new shooter's hand because training to use it is very easy and simple for anyone to understand.

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