Sunday, September 9, 2018

raising the bar on survival 2 of 3


RAISING THE BAR ON SURVIVAL 2
Yesterday we discussed how globally food is in a deficit of supply.  Even here in the US, the disruption still effects us.  Just economically.  So bad is our corn screw up with the ethanol issue that it is now cheaper to use expensive Florida cane sugar or imported sugar ( with high tariffs ) in a lot of sweetening than it is use the once cheaper than dirt corn syrup.  Well, the disruption is also seen in the health sector.  Even as the health industry implodes on its own incompetence our food industry doubles down on toxicity with Pink Slime and Sawdust Fillers.  I like fiber as much as the next guy with hemorrhoids, but adding cellulose to food is a bit much.
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And speaking of hemorrhoids, I love you all dearly but some of you have been a real pain in the ass, an almost complete correlation between my rectal bleeding and your insistence that ammunition shortages and prices were political rather than logistical.  Peak Copper is as real as Peak Ore and Peak Silver and Peak Oil are.  I understand that De Nile is more than a river in Egypt.  Do you?  It is all well and good to deny scare mongering, as it is used to control you.  Like Gore Warming.  Some of which is a necessary attention grabber like the break down of the East Coast and European ocean current heat distribution.  Most of it is just control and taxation, unfortunately.
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Behind every wealth distribution scheme is a kernel of truth, and nowadays, kernels can really effect you.  The politics of the Left-ening of all population centers might have initiated a scare amongst the population and ammo and gun sales soared, granted.  But the reason that this ammunition demand blip caused shortages and price increases wasn’t the same as when the Other Clinton was officially in charge.  Back then, when oil was in a glut and we were just starting to tap into the far less dense ore concentrations with $10 a barrel energy, it was all scarcity brought on by fear and politics and a maxed out production system.  But it was NOT because we were running out of cheap energy or ore.
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A short time ago, it WAS exactly ore and energy shortages that caused the political demand to be met with ammo shortages.  Production was maxed out, in the less numerous facilities that were left us compared to two decades previous, but because copper was becoming so much more expensive to mine there was an economic triage put into place as a very small niche market of American militia was set against every industrial concern in the world.  Care to guess who won in the bidding war?  The reason it is so cheap and available now is because increasing wage destruction has decimated the customer base of everyone everywhere for copper so that even with increased demand from the 2016 election scare the demand for ammunition is far below capacity now.
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Those that think the capitalist system is perfect, and that money will always solve any shortage problem, don’t like history.  They don’t realize capitalism is just an economic system put into place to manage the European colonial surpluses, and following that the carbon fuel surpluses.  Now that the surpluses are over and done with ( except for surpluses of population ), the capitalist system is sputtering and dying.  Oops-ee.  With decreasing surpluses, we return to the mean of relative military advantage and the control of resources, no matter their amount.  We aren’t doing too well there either.
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The point is that you cannot base long term plans of short term surpluses ONLY in place due to demand destruction.  Wheat ( to refer back to article one in this series ) is super double cheap ( in my higher than normal cost of living area, a mere $10.50 a bag retail cost as of last week ) right now as domestic demand falls as incomes do.  Wheat is such a marginal food item right now ( NOT being the primary diet grain, which is corn ) that even as Little Brown People die overseas from their inability to afford even the cheaper US industrial grain, domestically it is begging for buyers.  So right now for a limited time, businesses in financial trouble beg for customers by marking down the prices of storage grain and ammunition.
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A lot might even be losing money in practice, if not on paper ( akin to paying the mortgage with the roof repair money, it doesn’t hurt you immediately ).  Wal-Mart might be giving away the crap quality rimfire at a $2 loss to sell more of the rifles shooting it, since their bulk purchases bring in $25 profit per $99 gun, rather than the industry standard of about $20.  That sort of thing.  But the low prices are certainly by no stretch of the imagination due to resource surpluses.  They are due to lack of customers wedded to an overproduction supply glut.  And none of this changes the fact that the system has no slack built into it.
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Businesses and by necessity customers will fail in this system of falling supply.  We cannot grow more food, so more people eat less and eventually their shortened lives take a bit of pressure off of demand.  But the whole time increased population is meeting decreased food production.  The globalized supply system breaks down along with currencies and economies and decreasing purchasing power, and even as locals see a surplus the system as a whole is all about decreasing supply.  Supply, regardless of temporary surplus through demand destruction, is in a steady downward phase.  Even if you see an increase in supply, it does not match the increase in population, for a per capita global decline in resources.  Of everything.
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We are way past Peak Silver, globally.  And the price continues to drop.  Not JUST because of the Doctor Evil Bankers are manipulated it.  There is also a decrease in electronics demand, as well as there is only so much currency debasement a government wants to engage in.  Too much and they completely destroy their economy and so then they can buy exactly ZERO resources from abroad.  So they can’t just print money on demand to buy the silver the electronics industry doesn’t need any longer.  They can only destroy their currency a little bit at a time, necessitating prudence in inflation.  As all currencies race to the bottom the trick is to remain the last man standing.  So precious metals, while bought and stockpiled, still see some demand destruction.
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And yet, silver is still decreasing in supply, globally, just as copper and grain is.  There is still no room for a demand spike.  So fall to your knees and give profuse thanks to whichever god you plead to during adverse conditions, to save your pathetic mortal shell, that the Survivalist industry has been in decline.  There is far less competition in demand for resources, due to falling wages and purchasing power.  Hell, while you are there, give thanks to the Dark Lord Obammy for the huge surge in health care costs.  How many wanna-be survivalists  were financially knocked out of the prepping game by 10-30% a year health insurance cost increases?  We continue and conclude tomorrow.
( .Y. )
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11 comments:

  1. Re: food shortages....Grand Solar Minimum and the Little Ice Age.

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    1. Good! It is 101 degrees today and my power bills all summer cuts into my ammo budget. I would love some siberia weather accross the 49th parallel and dreary central european weather in the southwest states. A little bit of die off is necessary.

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    2. I think we hit 91 here once this summer. Had about three weeks it wasn't cool enough at night for window fans. 'Course, you'll be laughing at me this January, won't you?

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  2. suggest you keep the mailing list.. for those "Special Announcements" that might come to mind..

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    1. Even baring that, I think I have a feasible new direction to take the newsletter.

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  3. If you are going to need to move a lot of DC amps to your inverter-charger (even if you don't yet own the batteries), now is the time to buy heavy copper wire with the super-deluxe high-temp solvent-UV-resistant insulation. "Train wire" is super-excellent in specifications, and can be got in mm's thicker than 0000. You can avoid some of the Amps going from battery to inverter by designing in conservation (keeping below 2000W total inverter draw, ever) and/or increasing the battery pack voltage to 24v or 48v. If going any distance (over 10') or pulling more serious Watts (over 2000), you may HAVE TO increase pack voltage. 100A at 12v is what would consider absolute max for cost & safety. Hardware that can connect or switch over 100A is special, and the copper gets thick-heavy.
    I've gone to absolute minimal alternating current (still, enough to run a freezer-turned-refer) with Morningstar SureSine300 (continuous 300W, 600W 30-minute peak) that is fanless. It uses 2 gauge wire and 12v only, which means 10' run to batteries is okay (less than 2% voltage drop at 600W). Morningstar is good gear for your solar-power deluxe-with-cheapness, where the whole system is a pair of 6v deep cycle batteries, 400W of pv with a baby controller. "good" means no fans on electronics, and simple/sturdy enough to work inside a Uni-Bomber shack with a pounded-dirt floor. The great thing about 120v/60cycle is that it can go some distance on a cheap extension cord or trailer internal Romex before becoming useless, while 12v can not go far without big copper.

    It doesn't matter why: NOW is the time to get essential stuff to use/store that is historically cheap. I'm considering 2nd job to get more money for this. Grains-beans-rice/ammo/canning jars,grinders/processors are all good now, and never cheaper.

    Ignoring liquid fuel storage and genset/chainsaws for now. Rent if needed for project, conceal fuel truck if one becomes available.
    pdxr13
    ps: RV's only need a genset if they have roof aircon. Much savings if either are broken or missing.

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    1. Right, make a big deal about broken/missing roof AC on the RV, to Jew down the price, but look for just that because those AC's are garbage and you do NOT want to ever rely on them. A roof over the vehicle is cheaper than the equipment needed to run an AC. What you save on the RV w/o an AC, put towards a roof-over. Better yet, dig a big trench and roof that over, as finances allow wall it off. Earth sheltered beats an AC any day.

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  4. re:
    Roof over RV

    Seconded. Last night and this morning in Oregon, we are soaking up some nice rain... but the drops must be yuge. They sound like rocks bouncing off my roof.

    Yes, a shed or barn over my rig. Good idea.

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    1. I would say, "and rain catchment", but your state is a dingus when it comes to that, yes?

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  5. could you explain about the ocean current heat distribution or provide a link? thanks.

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    1. Sorry, better known as Gulf Stream:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream
      Other areas have their own ocean currents that effect weather. Short articles on the specific effects of the Gulf Stream interuption on the east coast used to be over at Daily Impact dot Net. You just have to wade through a lot of other stuff.

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