inflation-house wins

INFLATION-HOUSE WINS

Are you starting to worry about inflation, again? If not, why not? You know its coming, sooner rather than later. And no, the solution isn't precious metals. The only solution is getting out of the economy. Which is easier said than done. I'm dependent on outside food, you are dependent on international oil. We are both humped. And to be perfectly honest, the best thing that could happen is an actual collapse. Or we are both double dog dingus humped. We are not only looking at monetary inflation, we are also looking at commodity inflation. Ready for the wild ride?

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I had a couple of minions e-mail me, looking for sources on my assertion that George Washington was a elite Blue Blood asswhore classist scumbag who hated the poor and killed them with glee. I can understand. No one likes a sacred cow BBQ when it is their own back yard. It is okay when we are all laughing at Bill for believing Trump is going to make America Great Again, since who would buy THAT? A rich Democrat New Yorker out to provide jobs and save our guns. What idiot believes THAT? Stupid Bill!

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I had to explain that one needs to read between the lines when making these accusations. It wouldn't stand up in a court of law. George never wrote, “Dearest Darkie Cook, today I had a bunch of deserters shot, to put the fear of God into the rest. Uppity bastards thought I had to pay them, and had to let them go at the end of their contract. Poor people are stupid!”. It is never that easy. You have to account for the original authors prejudice and tease out the meaning. And you have to read a lot, to get to the tidbits that help you read between the lines.

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From one source, the fact Washington was involved in land speculation west into Indian Territory ( as proclaimed by the British ). Another account of his lifetime ambition to work his way up into high society. Another film talked about his cadre of hand picked bodyguard. One book mentions his disdain for irregular troops, since he wanted recognition from European powers that “his” army was equal to theirs. One covers his execution of deserters, yet another WHY they were deserting. No author hates George. I hate rich humpers, so I looked at all their accounts in that light.

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Do I hate ALL rich humpers? Of course not. Sean Connery might have a place to live in the Bahamas, but he also gave a LOT of money to the Scottish Independence Movement. To me, he'll always be aces in my book. Almost makes you want to go rent Highlander II, doesn't it, to get him some more royalties ( I'm kidding-some movies you should never watch twice )? But I shan't digress on how 99% of rich people are greedy humps who wish to hurt you for profit. No, my point was that studying a subject, you cannot accept an authors opinion without questioning their motivation, ignorance, prejudices or source of funding.

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I almost feel sorry for the schmucks who bought into Gore Warming without any questioning. They either have to double down on the crap getting even more improbable ( “Hi, I'm a New York communist who learned everything in Women's Liberation Basket Weaving in college, and while serving coffee. We only have twelve years to live!” ), or admit they are an idiot for thinking that in a complex planet wide system, ONLY measuring one input guarantees future computed numbers.

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Yeah, solar output placed too many variables in the calculations, so they just ignored that one. I dislike that condescending prick Orlov, but the bastard is almost always right on just about everything-look up his recent take on climate change. His is the best Denial piece I've ever read. It simplifies what others complicate. Come on, it's a buck a month! And speaking of questioning ones motives, I notice Orlov is much better independently publishing on Patreon than when he had to get his books published conventionally ( just something to keep in mind reading his early stuff ).

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Almost everything almost anyone tells you today is a lie in some form or another. Ignorance, profit motive, political agenda, conformation bias. Even “scientists”, or, especially them, cannot be trusted. Hell, you can't even trust your spouse or good friend. People talk about a Low Trust society, how about more like a NO trust society? So, yes, by necessity, a lot of what I sell as facts must by necessity be Wild Ass Guesses. But they are guesses based on research and analysis, tempered by Little To No Trust. They aren't just pure guesses based on laziness.

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And, I had to explain all of THAT, so you understand that making economic predictions is chockablock full of dangerous assumptions and by necessity, ignoring a lot of the official story. I cannot guarantee anything, but I'm not telling you anything I'm not sure of and hence act on, myself. You can easily dismiss the current Overnight Repo Market as, as officially explained, was just the end of a quarter tax payment issue. You would be silly for doing so, because that has never been an issue previous, but I also understand it is easy to dismiss 90% of the signals out there simply because of volume.

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Say your bank has a nearby branch. Say it has a thousand customers. One day, half of those customers took out most of their cash, when Palmetto State had a wicked sale. I know, improbable, but I'm making a point. Your bank, which really doesn't carry all that much cash ( hint, future desperado bank robbers hoping to finance The Revolution ), tells another bank it needs X amount, that withdrawn, to balance its books. Bank 2 loans it that money, overnight, at 1% interest. If three or four banks don't have that extra, then the first bank has to offer 2% interest to get its balance restored.

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So, what happens when a bank is so desperate to balance its books that it offers TEN percent? Me? It tells me something heinous just happened, like the bank lost a bet on its Derivatives. Which it was using to place high risk bets to restore a LOT of lost assets. So, the central bank is starting to loan to the regular banks, rather than one bank to another. What does that tell you? To me, it says Liquidity Crisis, as in the Lehman Moment already occurred and no bank is willing to give out assets to another bank which is insolvent. And if no bank is loaning out money, it means it isn't JUST one insolvent bank.

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Okay, now the central bank tells us that the quarterly taxes issue is resolved, but, hey, the banks need more capital, you know, because the economy is doing so well that everyone is expanding, so they are going to continue making $75 BILLION available every banking day, to meet those increased capital requirements. Now, I thought that the overnight repo market was JUST balancing books. But you are telling me it is a question of credit. Something does NOT smell right here.

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From a couple of days shoring up the repo market, to a month, then next week seeing that expanded to THREE months, something isn't adding up. I think this is a stealth bank bail out. I could be wrong. I have no smoking gun. I have to read between the lines. But since the entire system has a proven track record of lying to us ( months prior to the '08 meltdown, the Federal Reserve is telling us “all is well”. Whenever the bank is caught in billion dollar scams, a low level clerk is thrown under the bus and takes all the blame. Sure, guys ), I can see very little downside in assuming it is AGAIN lying to us.

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Would it be safe to assume the overnight loans are NOT just overnight? Rather, permanent? They still have not admitted that the PetroDollar is failing, and has been since right after Libya. No one is admitting all that stolen gold is matched by gold return requests. No one admits the financial clearing houses are totally corrupt ( remember the scandal with the Chicago Board, with London's LIBOR? ). Even the government, to save money on COLA payments, is lying about the simple inflation rate ( always double to quadruple the official number ). And don't get me started on the unemployment rate.

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And with that, even as I'm just now getting warmed up in a fiery and righteous indignation, we must continue tomorrow.

( .Y. )

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