DD 3 of 3

DISCOLORED DOOM 3

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Looking back on industrial infrastructure, creative destruction was in full bloom.  Where once water power was the first machine fuel, that was displaced by coal or even sometimes by wood ( or prior, wood was displaced by water ).  Steam coal power was replaced by petroleum or natural gas.  In most cases one area was abandoned and another closer to the new fuel source had its new infrastructure built up and the old area saw abandonment.  Think of the town and railroad of a tapped out gold mine rusting and falling down, and apply that to manufacturing. 

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Peak Oil wasn’t the only reason our factories moved overseas.  We had already encouraged steel mills elsewhere to account for the Peak Iron Ore here.  But what those early mills showed us was that our fifty year plus old plants were inefficient compared to the newer ones.  They were closer to the ore, they used less energy and as a bonus labor was cheaper.  Domestic Peak Oil was an isolated event that pushed the factories out that were already headed there.  Now, take that manufacturing issue and apply it to all other infrastructure such as roads and water and sewer lines and electrical generation and airports and finance.  Because most of the rest of the world either had zero modern infrastructure ( based on oil consumption ) or had it destroyed by the war, everybody got brand new crap. 

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Whereas the US was still using all infrastructure ( not just manufacturing ) from the beginning of the petroleum age.

This accounts for some of the disparity between ours and most other locations, infrastructure wise.  They started building everything when ours was already thirty to fifty years old.  And most of what we had built was already forecasted to be obsolete not too long after the war anyway.  The fact it has lasted this long with minimal issues is testament to the far better materials and labor used a century ago ( or longer ). 

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Yet not everything built new after 1945 was the same quality as 1900 ( World War One was largely a rural rather than urban destruction ).  To some extent it was certainly superior to anything built today, but there was also a quantity verses quality issue.  Most of the world had to be paved over, built up, dammed, connected with electricity and the like.  There was independence from the old empire, so, for instance, Indian wealth stayed at home rather than being diverted to Britain.  Even First World nations like Canada built up infrastructure.  We all know the story of China building up from a rural Japanese colony to the factory to the world.  They started even later, but they kept the pace of infrastructure construction going.

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The destruction of WWII wiped out almost all quality infrastructure in the industrial world ( Britain’s had been even older than ours and been decaying from an earlier start.  Bombing just ended the process-with the Pound Sterling dead before that ).  What replaced it was of lesser quality but allowed excess quantity ( cement went from centuries old Roman to decades long rebar supported.  Building went from massive iron beams to thin steel and window walls.  Sewers went from bricked tunnels to plastic pipe.  Even the best replacements don’t have longevity ).  When old tech is bypassed by new, when the old wasn’t available such as phone lines in Africa, it is plastic and silicon and is delicate by nature.

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Everything new was shiny and bright, but it also will not last as long as the old over engineered and overbuilt everything we in the US are still relying on fifty years past their pull date.  Not only that, the new build, but also factor in military spending.  Most of the rest of the world spends little above nuclear deterrence and national police forces for their military.  Sure, the Dutch send over a military unit to help out in Afghanistan as part of NATO pressure.  Then they stay at base, not fighting.  Why should they?  One engagement gone wrong and almost their entire infantry structure for the whole military is wiped out!

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Almost all spending and manufacture is dedicated to military uses these days in the US.  Other countries keep the water from being poisoned ( unlike Dearborn Michigan and Anywhere USA fracking ) because they don’t have that expense.  You can’t accuse them of “not paying their share to ensure Freedom/Democracy” when you never wanted them challenging your hegemony to begin with and didn’t allow their military to grow ( Japan, Germany ). 

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Okay, so most other places have new-ish infrastructures, and economies not wiped out in military spending.  And they don’t need US Dollars because they are butt paper as soon as they aren’t good for buying oil.  Doesn’t that give the rest of the world a head start from our collapse?  Unfortunately, no.  Newer infrastructure is not built solid.  Everything was built to take oil.  The reason our infrastructure is neglected is because there are NOT the resources to fix or replace.  And the only thing keeping the oil flowing is secure trade and banking. 

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If their infrastructure is now oil based, because the new build up decimated the pre-petroleum infrastructure, and the Spice Stop Flowing, they are in just as bad of a place as we are now.  As crappy of a deal as the PetroDollar is for everyone else, our greedy banks and our incompetent military still allow global trade.  The structure of Global Policeman is always necessary for trade.  Without them, you get Somali Pirates everywhere and nothing gets delivered cheaply enough that the market can bear the extra. 

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No, we are NOT an effective Global Policeman anymore.  We really haven’t been for some time.  If we were, there would not be the Chinese non-naval carbon fuel infrastructure being built at huge cost ( the infrastructure of China is especially fast and flimsy and they need the fuel to keep it all running, performing the same short sided fuel inefficiency for cheaper upfront cost we did ).  They aren’t JUST building it because they want energy independence but because we can’t be as protective of trade as we were.  Our Policeman role has degraded a lot.  This ain’t your grandpappy’s multi-thousand ship navy anymore ( with, you know, ships and personnel that actually performed to a minimum standard ).

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As crappy as our banking and military industry is, they perform somewhat.  Now imagine that absence ( another reason for Chinese alternate trade systems-not just militarily or economic.  Without credit and financing AND a military protection, trade doesn’t happen ).  So, I’m not claiming that without the US the rest of the world collapses.  I’m saying without infrastructure in place the rest of the world collapses.  If there was an infrastructure ( don’t JUST think pipes and wires.  Finances and payment systems are also infrastructure.  They don’t collapse from poor material, but from diminishing returns and lack of the material infrastructure supporting it, like communications and military protection ) that could take its place, it would all transition.

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But there ISN’T an infrastructure to take its place, such as when an oil economy took over from a coal economy ( the US from Britain ).  Not only do we NOT have another petroleum empire to take over, we probably won’t even have a functioning coal empire ( China ).  Just to maintain, forget growth, what we have now we need petroleum.  Which is in decline Net Energy wise.  Regional economies can survive, but not a global economy.  Which is an oil economy. 

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The economy needs infrastructure to survive.  And nobody has an infrastructure they can maintain or replace.  The whole world is going down, not because the USA won’t be there to run it, but because the oil won’t flow.  Globalization was a stupid idea, but it did allow the best extraction of oil.  The party was great while it lasted, but it about Oil, not the Good ‘Ol USA, ‘Murica #1!

END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2iouds0 )

 

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