malthus' gore warming 4 of 4

MALTHUS’ GORE WARMING 4

I’m not going to cover your area, giving you location specific advice.  While generalities might be nice, such as “the Southern states will be inundated with Gott Damn Yankees who desperately flee the cold”, you can’t cover an entire continent such as the size of the US and deliver any justice to any particular town without writing a book.  You are the best judge of the dangers you face in your particular place.  Let me just cover my burg as an example.  Elko Nevada is in the upper left corner of the state.  There are only four towns of any size in the state, one on each of the only rivers.  The fifth largest town is about eight thousand people, the largest is Vegas at something like a million and a half ( the state totaling around 2 million ).  Take away the first three cities on the borders and you are left with an interior with only about 200k people ( very broad numbers-I’m going by memory and old census numbers ). 

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Nobody is going to travel INTO the state.  If you leave central or northern Idaho you get much drier traveling south.  There is little reason for Utah, with its relatively adequate moisture at the foothills of the Rockies, to travel into the Great Basin ( the state of Nevada, but NOT Las Vegas, compromises almost all of the Great Basin geological area ) towards lack of water or towards California.  As dry as California is, there is little reason for them to come into Nevada which is far, far drier.  They should travel north to their own wetter northern portion plus the coasts of Oregon and Washington.  Those two states won’t travel eastward into their own deserts and on to Nevada, but up the coast and over into Idaho.  Arizona is just plain screwed, having to travel through the Mohave and THEN through the Great Basin although first contending with the hoards in Las Vegas.  I don’t think they are too much of a threat.

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No, the only threat is from Las Vegas itself.  It is by no means a small threat.  Even if they must travel 400 miles to my location, 200 miles before surface water, then another 200 without again, they still pose a heck of a problem.  I can’t just discount them by saying they will all die of thirst.  If you had a bicycle and three gallons of water you could easily make half the trip in two days-and the state isn’t as bone dry as points further south-there will be other minor sources of water.  What concerns me is that, just like Southern California, these damn fools have overpopulated a very dry area and they are far away from water.  And they only have one way to go to get out of there.  Which unfortunately is funneled by all our mountain ranges running north-south.  And I am in the way.  When you are looking at a million and a half people and only one percent reach you, that is still your town almost doubling in population.  Granted, they won’t all stay, but the location is already grossly overpopulated with oil inputs as it is.  We need to drastically shed population, not double it.  ( now, apply to your area with its own set of concerns and geology )

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Okay, everything above was pretty much a repeat of concerns with the Golden Horde.  So, how will Gore Warming Refugees differ?  In our popular narrative, the Golden Horde are generally a one wave car transported threat.  Gore Warming Refugees are a DISPLACING force, not a one time looting force.  Your stuff isn’t in danger, but your population.  Recall the attacks of the horse nomads to points east of Europe.  The refugee waves fled west and pushed off the local inhabitants.  Those displaced moved west and displaced the next group of locals, who themselves were forced out and forced to displace populations further west and etcetera until all of Eastern Europe changed its population.  Of course, keep in mind that each attack and retreat entailed a lot of casualties.  But you are NOT looking at just the original population from a far away land.  You are looking at ALL the population they displaced as well ( minus the few that stayed along the way ). 

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Are you getting the picture?  The original area under attack ( under military attack, under climate change-same difference to you in the end ) is forced to leave, then forces almost all others between them and you towards your location.  Each in-between location will see traveler and local conflict, and then traveler against traveler as different groups fight each other for squatters rights, then the vanquished move on to the next location.  Moving through undesirable land, very few will drop off and stay as they must take into account carrying capacity ( with those miscalculating optimistically part of the NEXT wave ).  The total numbers will drop as each location sees casualties, even accounting for the extra population, but since the numbers started out so huge you will see large numbers at your end location.  And remember, this isn’t ONE attack.  It is a continuous wave.  Eventually it will subside but one guesses that with so many people overpopulated in this country there simply won’t be the ammunition available to survive until then.

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Is your area defensible?  You aren’t looking at being passed by by a band of bandits ( say that fast three times ).  You are looking at a wave pushing all before its path.  You are looking at, quite simply, a repeat of the Whites moving west eliminating all Indians.  But in a much smaller time scale, because the original starting place of the Whites is unlivable this time around.  This is Golden Horde on steroids, then doubled.  Ready?

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