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Thursday, October 20, 2016

malthus' gore warming 4 of 4


MALTHUS’ GORE WARMING 4

I’m not going to cover your area, giving you location specific advice.  While generalities might be nice, such as “the Southern states will be inundated with Gott Damn Yankees who desperately flee the cold”, you can’t cover an entire continent such as the size of the US and deliver any justice to any particular town without writing a book.  You are the best judge of the dangers you face in your particular place.  Let me just cover my burg as an example.  Elko Nevada is in the upper left corner of the state.  There are only four towns of any size in the state, one on each of the only rivers.  The fifth largest town is about eight thousand people, the largest is Vegas at something like a million and a half ( the state totaling around 2 million ).  Take away the first three cities on the borders and you are left with an interior with only about 200k people ( very broad numbers-I’m going by memory and old census numbers ). 

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Nobody is going to travel INTO the state.  If you leave central or northern Idaho you get much drier traveling south.  There is little reason for Utah, with its relatively adequate moisture at the foothills of the Rockies, to travel into the Great Basin ( the state of Nevada, but NOT Las Vegas, compromises almost all of the Great Basin geological area ) towards lack of water or towards California.  As dry as California is, there is little reason for them to come into Nevada which is far, far drier.  They should travel north to their own wetter northern portion plus the coasts of Oregon and Washington.  Those two states won’t travel eastward into their own deserts and on to Nevada, but up the coast and over into Idaho.  Arizona is just plain screwed, having to travel through the Mohave and THEN through the Great Basin although first contending with the hoards in Las Vegas.  I don’t think they are too much of a threat.

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No, the only threat is from Las Vegas itself.  It is by no means a small threat.  Even if they must travel 400 miles to my location, 200 miles before surface water, then another 200 without again, they still pose a heck of a problem.  I can’t just discount them by saying they will all die of thirst.  If you had a bicycle and three gallons of water you could easily make half the trip in two days-and the state isn’t as bone dry as points further south-there will be other minor sources of water.  What concerns me is that, just like Southern California, these damn fools have overpopulated a very dry area and they are far away from water.  And they only have one way to go to get out of there.  Which unfortunately is funneled by all our mountain ranges running north-south.  And I am in the way.  When you are looking at a million and a half people and only one percent reach you, that is still your town almost doubling in population.  Granted, they won’t all stay, but the location is already grossly overpopulated with oil inputs as it is.  We need to drastically shed population, not double it.  ( now, apply to your area with its own set of concerns and geology )

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Okay, everything above was pretty much a repeat of concerns with the Golden Horde.  So, how will Gore Warming Refugees differ?  In our popular narrative, the Golden Horde are generally a one wave car transported threat.  Gore Warming Refugees are a DISPLACING force, not a one time looting force.  Your stuff isn’t in danger, but your population.  Recall the attacks of the horse nomads to points east of Europe.  The refugee waves fled west and pushed off the local inhabitants.  Those displaced moved west and displaced the next group of locals, who themselves were forced out and forced to displace populations further west and etcetera until all of Eastern Europe changed its population.  Of course, keep in mind that each attack and retreat entailed a lot of casualties.  But you are NOT looking at just the original population from a far away land.  You are looking at ALL the population they displaced as well ( minus the few that stayed along the way ). 

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Are you getting the picture?  The original area under attack ( under military attack, under climate change-same difference to you in the end ) is forced to leave, then forces almost all others between them and you towards your location.  Each in-between location will see traveler and local conflict, and then traveler against traveler as different groups fight each other for squatters rights, then the vanquished move on to the next location.  Moving through undesirable land, very few will drop off and stay as they must take into account carrying capacity ( with those miscalculating optimistically part of the NEXT wave ).  The total numbers will drop as each location sees casualties, even accounting for the extra population, but since the numbers started out so huge you will see large numbers at your end location.  And remember, this isn’t ONE attack.  It is a continuous wave.  Eventually it will subside but one guesses that with so many people overpopulated in this country there simply won’t be the ammunition available to survive until then.

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Is your area defensible?  You aren’t looking at being passed by by a band of bandits ( say that fast three times ).  You are looking at a wave pushing all before its path.  You are looking at, quite simply, a repeat of the Whites moving west eliminating all Indians.  But in a much smaller time scale, because the original starting place of the Whites is unlivable this time around.  This is Golden Horde on steroids, then doubled.  Ready?

END

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15 comments:

  1. My fears, worst to best:

    1. Gov't paperwork that snares me into some convoluted illegal nightmare, ie., anything IRS, etc.

    2. Gov't law enforcement, local or otherwise, approaching or summoning me in any form.

    3. Collapse resulting in 1 mil+ urban/suburban misfits descending on this very rural area which is the only forested area in the entire state and the least populated county (15,000 people).

    4.
    5.
    6.
    .
    .
    . Way down at the bottom: Anything international.

    Global news items only barely cross my radar sweep of interest as there are a whole phalanx of things much closer that are of imminent personal concern and are much more likely to happen.

    When you fear your country, or more specifically, the maniacal tyrants that have stolen it, what are you to do?

    It's horrifying that my golden years have to end this way and I damn every last one of them responsible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The golden years will be...interesting. To say the least.

      Delete
    2. Global news is coming to you! Might I suggest following the Russian/Syrian troubles and how Putin has promised for things to go hot if Hellary is elected? Fallout and such.
      Peace out

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    3. Most of what is passing as international news by the Doomer Blogs is pure illogical Fear Porn. Meant to generate click bait. Not that bad things won't happen, just that the prepper blogs use the same Cry Wolf BS tactics that gold bugs have used for decades.

      Delete
  2. Another way of seeing would be at least a decade of refugees each pushing outward and creating another wave of refugees like falling dominos. And multiple waves will be created as multiple different disasters will befall the continent. Wave one could be refugees from a hurricane on the east coast, wave two could be refugees from a blizzard in the Appalachians, wave three could be from a heat wave in the south, drought in the west, firestorms in the mountains, etc., etc., etc. With waves coming as often as several in a year to having a break of several years in between, until the die off has removed enough total population that even the most severe drop in carrying capacity of a region barely displaces anyone.
    Considering Humans are horny SOB's and will be popping out babies quickly as things get worse, after a half generation of few refugees we will see those kids that survived becoming the next tide of refugees.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All animals breed past carrying capacity. Our problem is thinking we don't do the same.

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  3. CORRECTION. Elko is located in the top right hand of the state. Oops.

    ReplyDelete
  4. While your premise is sound here is a different view. if climate change forces a migration The government will be forced to build huge apartment fortress cities. They have to concentrate resources. What land is arable will be confiscated for large agri. The uninhabitable zones will be mined/salvaged for use before abandonment. Think soviet style cities, good land big agriculture, peasant's allowed junk land subsistence only. Uncontrolled migrations will be a thing of the past. The TSA is not limited to airports only they have yet to morph into their bureaucratic wet dream.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We do not have the Soviet levels of energy/ore to rebuild. Plus, prime ag land has been paved over-to unpaved it does not create farmland. Also, Midwest corn belt both shrinking due to aquifer failures and increased topsoil loss.

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  5. Overshoot by about 15x. Pajamaboy doesn't have a solution, nor does H. or T. (different versions of terrible). Only pre-dug ditches and backhoes to dig more will be the end of it. As is instinct, I'm not going without a fight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No matter who is prez, they must follow histories/natures script. We'll have little choice but to fight.

      Delete
  6. I live in a isolated rural area, and I actually believes my biggest worry will be the locals not people moving in. Most townies and country people are tough enough and resourceful enough to survive for a month or so, long enough to think up some really dastardly plans to get what they aint got.
    Aussie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Perhaps where you come from-but here they aren't tough and resourceful as much as poor and devious. The crackhead is the new rural normal.

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    2. I tend towards Aussie's thinking. Urban folks don't are likely to go to other urban areas that might economically be better off. Some place they think they can get work.

      It is the rural folk, not inclined to urbanize or they would already be there, who are going to be the problem.

      Delete
    3. One group might be more of an issue than another, but let's be paranoid and assume both present a problem.

      Delete

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