Tuesday, August 11, 2015

afracanize surprise 2 of 2


AFRICANIZE SURPRISE 2

Two notes before we start today:
1) my new web site is www.bisonprepper.com
I got a discount price of $20 the first year for domain and hosting.  I don't REALLY need it but I hate being under threat from just one publishing source.
2) whoever was harassing me about the cheap surplus 303 ammo at CheaperThanDirt, thank you.  I bought a case, figuring more peace of mind from more ammo rather than more Greenbacks.
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Which is why I don’t think that by the time we collapse they will escape the same fate.  The longer we hang on politically and economically, the closer the rest of the world is to resource depletion.  In other words, the material to keep business as usual going is running out for everyone.  Saudi Arabia was thought by insiders to be quickly running out of oil, and that was ten years ago.  Since Saudi data on oil production is a state secret, for all we know they could have been frantically fracking all this time and are about to go off a cliff ( there was a period of global well availability decline as Saudi frantically pumped offshore those ten years ago ).  Russia is King Crap with oil right now, but they could easily do something similar ( since they rebounded so forcefully from their 1980’s Peak Oil, one wonders how long this new supply will last.  They could have been overproducing this whole time, compelled by economic survival.  Over production kills off a wells supply quicker.  The US has almost always had an institution forcing production moderation-the rest of the world not so much.  Which is why our LOONNNGGG slow oil decline will not be mirrored by others.  Witness Mexico and its 8%+ production decline yearly  ). 

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Thinking the US will strongly contract while others won’t is the act of not only wishing a low slow collapse into existence, it is endowing our enemies with perhaps far more planning, logic and smarts than is warranted ( granted, China with engineers in charge is far superior to our lawyers in charge, but both systems are still carbon fuel-centric and incapable of rapid enough change to forestall Malthusian collapse.  China’s masters mastermind oil growth exclusively, and are great at it.  Planning contraction is another thing ).  China has never planned for contraction well, as witnessed by a very long history of feast or famine cycles.  It always bounced back due to its “forever agriculture” system, an anomaly amongst empires other than Egypt, but they might have gone too far dismantling that system this time.  Russia has a long history of surviving events that would have felled lesser nations, but one must also keep in mind they never were a true world class empire before the Gunpowder Revolution.  As such, they fall within the last 500 year exception of imperial collapse’s historical norm.  Having an ungodly amount of resources to mine to recover is not something that is going to last indefinitely. 

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So while the Saudi’s are about out of oil and China has killed its historical agricultural safety net for industrial growth, and Russia might finally be running up against resource limits ( might.  It must be remembered that American supplies are what helped Russia fight the war [ the winning part was all their doing ] against Germany and that war used up most of our oil and ore.  So it is an unknown how much more Russia has, given their far less wasteful nature ), to me this seems to point to the fact the rest of the planet might be as bad off as we are.

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2 comments:

  1. The rest of the world could be as bad off resource wise, but will they manage contraction as badly as we appear to be doing. No doubt there will be places in the world doing a lot better than others. Even Arica has its brighter spots.

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    Replies
    1. I wonder if some countries allow themselves to choose the worst course of action. For instance, Switzerland. Are they deliberately tanking their currency to appear a far less tasty target? Or has the BIS taken over the country?

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