TOLD YA SO, BITCHES
I've been harping on declining copper supply affecting the price of ammunition for about three years now. Here is an article showing yearly 4% global supply declines, as well as ore concentration declines:
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-looming-copper-supply-crunch/
The only fly in your ointment, is the fact that scrap copper prices have dropped almost a third over the past year.
ReplyDeleteThis says demand is way down for most copper usages.
Most bullet supply is back to normal availability , except for the 22 ....
I maintain that this is because folks are buying it up and stockpiling.
It is available in quantity here now,but the price is still right around one cent per round. Still high....probably will never go back to the old prices either !
The Baltic Dry Index and other indicators put industrial output way down, as the global economy is tanking. Less demand, so prices are down even as supply is. Same happened with oil for a spell.
DeleteMy brother in law works at CCI and he says they're cranking them out the door just as fast they can make em.
DeleteFrom what I hear all brands the same story. The public is buying them up and hoarding.
Okay, granting that, wouldn't increased copper prices due to decline account for the price increase, and the only reason they have enough to go three shifts full production is the fall off from copper demand elsewhere globally due to economic contraction? So, even with enough supply of raw material, since no more factories will be built and no more ammo can be produced, the increased demand keeps supply constricted. Two separate price increase issues, both valid. But the increase in rimfire price reflects both factors more than other ammo types. One, more copper is wasted. No reloads. Two, far more demand, if only because of backlog of rimfire gun owners still needing to stockpile to justify gun ownership. I think due to the waste factor, manufacturers are more willing to keep the price high as a penalty to encourage demand decrease ( granted, they are cashing in right now. But any high demand, low supply works this way. If aluminum wasn't recycled, each can would demand a much higher premium ). Many factors working at once.
DeleteC'mon Jim! I know you got more brains than that. That info-graphic was probably put together by some slick investment group looking for copper investors. The SAME people that told us YOU NEVER lose money with real estate. AND the same ones before that who told us JUST BUY AND HOLD stocks.
ReplyDeleteWe agree that planetary resources are LIMITED and the population is steadily increasing.
However IF there REALLY is a copper shortage WHY aren't Remington, Winchester, CCI etc, etc making STEEL cases which would improver their bottom line? Please think carefully before answering. Do not put your mouth on AUTO and let it blurt the first pre programmed response that comes up.
YKW
MM
I've based my arguments previously on other sources- this one is just confirmation, AGAIN. The ammo manufactures will not re-tool for steel cases due to high cost and low demand. It seems some guns must be made for the steel cases, yes? The AR is too finicky, for one. I'm sure our boys know the numbers of which calibers outside the 762x39 sell, and it can't be an inducement. Capitalism is not always textbook simple. Sometimes demand is filled, sometimes not.
DeleteThere are one-shot not-reloadable ALUMINUM cases being bought in bulk by Police/Sheriff shooting ranges in Western Oregon. Loads are identical to "LAWMAN" duty ammo. They are a little cheaper than brass and don't seem to have feeding problems in self-loading handguns. I haven't noticed aluminum cases in bottle-necked (higher pressure) cases like 7.62x25mm or .357Sig.
Delete.223 could go steel for cheapness, but I would want a non-AR-15 to shoot it from. AR-15 is a sensitive eater, and hungry beast in the hands of undisciplined pew-pew-pew shooters. .223 is a great round for critters up to about 80 pounds out to 400M, esp. in the heaviest weights (>65grains). Just like .22LR: I wouldn't want to get wounded by one. If you HAVE an AR-15, they still fetch pretty good price or trade, esp. for non-gun things (land-trailer-RV-backhoe time) when sold as a full-kit of magazines/case/loaders/straps/bayonet/ammo and no one is an FFL dealer who knows how to fill out .gov papers, just bill-of-sale/photos of each other.
Price and Cost-to-Replace a thing are different. I'm fine with a low-cost one-time-deal on a thing, with the understanding that price will be higher next time, if there is a next time. I love selling stuff at 10% of retail price when I got it for little or nothing and used it for a while. Of course, I want to pay 2-5% of retail for stuff I might re-sell (and it happens more than you might think in my weird Naked Bike Ride Freakville). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd3FU3HRmok
pdxr13
The weirdness is probably coming from China. Recall that they liked to stockpile assets to use as collateral on their way over leveraged loans. As I understand it, copper was a favorite. With them desperately trying to avoid a deflationary bubble pop, you would except prices to get weird.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of side shows, a year after year decline in a commodity does not feed our growth paradigm global crony capitalism requires to survive.
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