Monday, June 27, 2016

three tier arsenal 1 of 2


You might want to visit:

They seem to be slightly above the regular lower denominator that prepper sites have in common ( besides crass commercialism and pandering ).  The articles are short, long on advertisements and graphics almost as if to prove that in the race to the bottom e-sites can out-USA Today their print rivals, but at least each article usual gives up a bit of wisdom and is elevated above mere filler content.  I discovered them through a link at Rawles, covering the article on how the recent South American social disintegration proves food is much more in demand than you would have imagined ( as in, not exactly a First World Industrial economy but rather fitting the stereotype of peasants farming everywhere outside the city ).  Gold, and all other Prepper Fantasy barter items, no, not so much.  The author poo-pahed gold, as he should have.  I’ve been telling you the stuff is worthless except for multi-generational wealth transfer, and if my guess is right, none of my readers have enough wealth left over to transfer.  That is a rich puke problem ( Blacks make fun of White People Problems, and it is true that even the poor Whites mostly are one or two steps above on the socioeconomic ladder, but even when you are much better off than ghetto dwellers you are still exploited and outclassed by Rich Pukes ).


Since the article made sense, I started reading some more posts on the site, and they are adequate enough to follow until they inevitably stop posting and I get irritated and drop them from my regular reading list.  But here is my main point.  They had an article dissing on the one gun arsenal, or even the three gun arsenal, and advocated the Three Tier Arsenal.  I’d never heard such a thing until a minion had brought it up some time ago, and it makes a certain amount of valid points, but reading this latest article really turned me off of the concept.  Mainly because he didn’t really explore in depth why you needed all three, merely decrying not being armed enough.  Well, that is a bit of a copout in my opinion.  It is like saying, “don’t you value your life enough to buy a quality firearm?”.  On the face of it that is a valid question, and really the only thing keeping any of us, no matter how poorly paid, from going higher quality is lack of discipline.   But let’s explore a bit further, and I won’t even play the Poor Card, just to keep this fair. 


Everyone, even those in a household bringing in $60k a year ( anymore, a tremendous feat, as over half of Americans earn less than half that amount ) must Buy Affordably.  None of us can spend unlimited amounts on prepping.  The five acre farm in the boonies is an invalid unrealistic fantasy peddled by the Yuppie Scum Survivalist Guru’s.  Just being able to arm up and stock the pantry are Herculean feats even at the $60k level ( not because that isn’t a tremendous amount of money because it is, but because of the inevitable financial commitments made prior to prepping-you know, like raising kids further away from the Ghettos and having a more expensive more reliable vehicle to commute ).   NOT buying the Three Tier isn’t so much a lack of discipline or inclination as much as it is realistic budgeting.  Just as buying gold is retarded unless you already have lots and lots of food, buying too many firearms is even worse.  At least if you had gold, prior to the collapse you could buy more food.  With too many firearms, if things are going downhill quickly I can’t imagine guns are as good of a barter item as you believe ( gold might not have any allure to the hungry but there will always be the undesirables willing to trade for it ).


Here is my reasoning.  Gold, even if outlawed, holds its value.  Guns, if/when they are outlawed, will lose a lot of their trade in value for the simple fact that there are a lot more guns out there than gold.  You will be in a buyers market.  It is far better to just over buy on food NOW and under buy on guns ( while over buying on ammunition ).  Again, this is prior to the collapse.  There might be panics when your guns get a premium, I don’t doubt that.  But over the long haul, I see guns as an over abundant commodity.  Once the ammo starts disappearing ( as for instance, if a ban is put into place, still speaking pre-collapse ) guns lose even more of their value.  Sell your excess NOW, buy the hell out of food and when that is at a comfortable level, more ammo for the few guns you have left.


The Three Tier gun arsenal ( semi-autos for the die-off, bolts for afterwards, black powder and such for post-ammunition ) is probably a good idea ( probably-even if we could argue that the need for a semi means you are too friggin close for comfort.  Or we could argue that if you need close in protection a pump action shotgun is both one third the price of a carbine, its ammo is cheaper and more widely available.  Or we could argue that if you hide well enough you don’t need massive firepower-that what you are being sold is a less probable scenario ).  But can you argue it is a feasible option for most of us at this point?  This Suckers Going Down!-thank you President Shrub.  It sure as hell is.  The economy is circling the drain.  Just because we are still in motion doesn’t mean you personally will escape plunging down the pipe.  You could, I grant you.  Nothing is certain.  Anything is possible.  But what is probable is that very, very soon you will be without a job or a home if you are in debt.  You need to act like that is going to happen, not keep running down to the gun store as if employment and commercialism and consumerism and debt will keep on keeping on.  


Everything is a gamble.  Even having plenty of semi-auto’s is.  You just might get so cocky and sure of yourself since you have The Biggest And Baddest Rambo Killing Machine that you take retarded chances.  Continued tomorrow.


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  1. “Or we could argue that if you hide well enough you don’t need massive firepower-that what you are being sold is a less probable scenario ).”

    Good article James, and the above quote seems like the most logical advice of all. Contrary to television and video games, I don't believe that gunfights are something that too many survive beyond a few encounters. I'm sure that there are a few Wyatt Earp types out there, but I wouldn't suggest that anyone try their luck to find out if they're one of them. Marshall Dillon squaring off each week against the bad guys was the height of folly, and was never the reality, even in the old west.

    I think that food, along with enough funds to cover your property taxes, with a little extra for certain items that can't be produced at home is a good goal to shoot for. The only way to know what you will really need over time is to start living the life now. You will soon find out what you can and can't do without. Buy items that are bulletproof and last forever, which doesn't always mean having to spend more, but sometimes making compromises.

    I read something just the other day that stated that about 40% of the remaining jobs will give way to automation within the next decade and a half, so yes, this sucker's definitely going down, and in the not too distant future.

    1. A decade an a half sounds like a nice cushion, but I have my doubts we will see a "new normal" 2020, let alone a 2030.

    2. The thing is James, as of right now, things are already pretty terrible out there, at least where I live. I'm still seeing a fair number of young people (mostly young females it seems; affirmative action) landing high paying jobs. But generally speaking, the only others that I know that are doing okay are those that are self employed.

      Even the STEM fields aren't a sure bet anymore with many jobs having been outsourced, and the one's that aren't, having been “insourced” via H-1B visa holders (India and China mostly). I can't say how far off an actual waterfall collapse is going to be? But if things keep going at the rate they are, will we need one? Several years of “great depression like” living circumstances will probably suck bad enough.

    3. Very good point, and a further reminder I need to look beyond my current location a bit harder. Intellectually I know things are far worse everywhere else but I tend to lose that knowledge from my day today surroundings.

    4. I’m a self-employed handyman / home repair guy and there are not enough days in a week to get all the work done that people want me to do. I have several friends that are self-employed (another home repair guy, a drywall guy, a painter, a plumber and a heat and AC guy) and they all are just as busy as I am.

      I only get work by word-of-mouth, I don’t even have business cards, I don’t have voice mail on my phone, Self-employment is indeed the way to go if you have a skill and do good work.

      Also it’s very hard to get fired when you are self-employed. It’s more likely I fire a customer for one reason or another then they fire me. Being self-employed is in my opinion very good for down-turned economic times as I’m in charge of how much work I do, not a boss. And being a fix anything guy there is always work that people will pay for.

      As far as guns I haven’t bought any since the early 1990’s, but I did buy a LOT of them back then and have no real need for more. The same thing with ammo and reloading components. I have more ammo then I know what to do with. I use to work at a gun shop and got most of it for free (trade for helping at the shop) What I did have to buy was at cost so I built up a good supply. Most of my 22’s were bought when a brick of 500 was $5.99. I shoot every 3-weeks or so and have never really made a dent in ammo supplies.

      The one exception to no new guns is that I did buy an air pistol about a year ago. It is a Webley Alecto .177, it’s a NICE gun and a ball to shoot (not going to mention what it cost as it will send you into a rant big time James) I did not buy it for SHTF or prepping, just a toy. But it fires a pellet at 700 FPS so it would work as a small game harvesting tool.

      I sold my HK-93 (an AR-15 type of gun only 100 times better made) and kept my Marlin Camp-9 and Marlin Lever-Action 357 Mag. The Camp-9 is OK, but the Lever-Action 357 is downright nice and has plenty of power as it is 600 feet per second faster then a 357 pistol. And a Lever Gun doesn’t look as dangerous as a black gun does, but it still will do the job as it holds 10 rounds and can be loaded on the fly (topped off without needing to pull a mag that could take a gun out of service.)

      Most preppers as you said James have limited funds and today ammo is expensive so a semi-auto will burn up a lot of ammo that post SHTF could be for all practicality be unavailable. This is why a bolt-action is a better choice as it saves ammo.

      We all have seen TV shows that show people firing off mags full of ammo and never hitting anything but air. But the same shows also show a sniper (with a scoped bolt action) shooting once and hitting his target. Not that any TV show is what we would call reality. But the bolt action is more deadly on a per shot bases.

      My favorite rifle is my bolt action Mauser mark-10 22-250, (with a 6 to 18 power scope) it’s deadly at a long range and fun to shoot. I regularly hit a pop bottle at 400-yards about 70% of the time. I use it for woodchuck hunting.

      I also have a few bolt action 22’s that I like a lot, I know you are not a fan of the lowly 22, but they are deadly.

      No one (even a Rambo type) is going to survive a few 22’s shot into them post SHTF when a hospital emergency room is a memory. Heck even now a 22 is seriously deadly, take away med help and people will fear any gun shot like it’s the Black Death.

      Just wondering how many of you have air rifles (pellet guns, not BB guns) and have thought of them for post-SHTF small game harvesting?

      Pellets are inexpensive, they cost more then they were 25-years ago, but still a good bargain. I must have 60,000 of them; more then I will ever shoot.

      Chuck Findlay

    5. Not sure you are missing anything by not buying current guns. The only thing I've gotten excited about is the Century Arms HK91 clone for $650 ( and that is just window shopping ). Everything else is just more poly pistols and AR clones. The oldies are still just fine. I upgraded my 22 rifles ( from semi to a bolt and a single shot ) last year and that is my only gun purchases in near ten years. Before that, in a decade period, just more Lee-Enfields. Too much is made of buying more guns.

  2. I'm not so sure about the hiding out until after things calm down. In my area, there definitely are places you could disappear, however the fire hazard is so severe, there's no way you could survive the firestorm two weeks after the grid goes down and the firefighters don't have a resupply of diesel and are too afraid to leave their families unguarded anyhow. (In my general tri-county area, there are an average of 1-4 vegetation or structure fires that start each day (during "normal" times) that would immediately blow out of control if unfought. Perhaps you could dig a fireproof underground shelter but you'd have a hard time hiding the access to it due to the thick vegetation. Maybe you could get away with it in the desert if you could figure out the water supply issue. I'm pretty sure the desert outdoorsmen know of all the springs/water sources, so if you set up near one of them you'd quickly have company.

    Some firearms are made of quality materials, but their marketing is to folks who won't pay extra for proper fit and finish. If you're willing to spend several hours and have the necessary small tools, proper grit sandpaper, polishing compound, etc., you can make the insides smooth as glass where it counts. You have to do your research though to determine if the budget priced firearm has a price point reflecting that it actually is junk, or if it's a diamond in the rough.
    Peace out

    1. Hiding out isn't as necessary in "playing hide and seek" but more about just getting away from everyone, a deserted area. My area is sagebrush and grass and we are no stranger to fire. But it does have plenty of mountains with streams-a million places to go.

  3. "Three Tier" Sounds stupid to me. any "planning" that involves the entire region following your "script" seems doomed to cause you to come in second in the first gunfight.
    It is like thinking that "the bad guys will be standing over there", so we'll have them covered, and since they won't have any more ammo than us, we should run out at about the same time...
    It seems like it is (unless i'm missing something, and i probably am) just am excuse to waste ammo. But, "only in the beginning", of course, THEN, we'll switch to bolt guns...
    I think it is a good idea to have a few black powder guns, on hand (flintlocks, especially), but that is only because "I" might run out of ammo, not because we all are going to run out at the same time.

    We like to look at history as:
    Stone age > Bronze Age > Iron Age
    But it is important to keep in mind that the time of the "Bronze Age" was not universal, and the "Transition" to "Iron Age" varied, even in "civilized" regions by over a thousand years.
    Why does this matter?
    Because it is important to remember that the collapse MAY not happen all at once, like we think (or hope, in some cases).
    Some regions are more resilient than others, so even with an EMP event, "everywhere" doesn't collapse into war, at the same time.

    Is this not the whole point of preparing? making your situation more robust means that you get to enjoy a slow collapse, even when your neighbors are feeling the squeeze of a waterfall event.

    Remember, YOUR collapse happens when you lose your job, and no one will hire you. EVEN IF the rest of the world is running merrily along.
    and speaking of this: Do you really know, for sure, that your neighbor has not ALREADY fallen off the cliff?
    Who said the thing about "quiet desperation"?

    Anyway, my point is really just that you can't assume that folks will behave in one way or another, and not have some plan for "what if they don't?".
    It just seems to me like saving up a years worth of food, and having a plan for a banquet when the collapse happens...

    But maybe i'm wrong. i don't have to live with anyone else's choices, so play your cards the best you can, and i'll do the same...

    1. No, your thinking seems logical. This is a debunk the idea article. I never saw that semi's at first was the greatest idea, even though I can see it as over-insurance.

  4. You could mix the 1st - 2nd tier by making sure your bolt rifle also fits the same cartridge as the semi-auto. 7.62 NATO, 5.56 NATO, 7.62x39 all have bolt rifle counterparts. Just makes it easier to stock up in bulk.

    I think we make too much of having enough ammunition. As Anon 12:29 stated above, if you are involved in gun battles where you and your enemy have fired 200 rounds at each other, its pretty likely you will get hit by a well aimed shot / richochet / accident during that time. In any case, you are just equipping the other guy (bastard!) I think its way better to hide out, only shooting when you have to if possible. I'd also keep at least one rimfire rifle for 3rd tier as being quiet will become very important.

    1. The "way too much" ammo is NOT for getting into firefights repeatedly. It is so your gun lasts a very long time, even shooting a bit here and there-my thinking is, your grandkid using the same rifle for ambushes and hunting kind of thing.

    2. "THE ONE EYED MAN IS KING IN THE LAND OF THE BLIND" sort of thinking - true, very true.

    3. If you are going to stockpile ammunition in bulk (FMJ bullets, mil-surp) to use in both a boltie and semi-auto, the medium-cartridge .30's (7.62x51, .30-'06, 7.62x54R) give you the most bullet and velocity flexibility. Save your brass and optimize a load for your favorite bullet fired from the bolt-action. I do love detachable box magazines, but strippers are okay (and save you grams).

      After a while, you may have an AR-15 style weapon that needs to be cycled by hand for each shot. It's not really optimal, ergonomically, for that but you will mostly get that first shot. An Enfield or K98 or Springfield (let alone a modern military designated marksman weapon) will fire better and quicker than a manually-operated semi. So, why not get trained up on a lighter, hardhitting, more-accurate, less-demonized (but more lethal in steady hands!) platform from the beginning? Get adjustable peep sights. No glass to fog, tough, cheap, 1x (guaranteed!).

      Spend plenty on optics, about $1000 if you can, after researching much. I like my $200 10x40mm Bushnell 32-1040m, but it gives up almost every feature of more expensive variables while hitting above class in glass quality and durability. Rifle #2 might benefit from tritium-lit iron sights at around $120. NV might work for the cheapo budget if you get Gen1+ viewers (or security cameras with NV) and IR illuminators on sensors/command-control. Or, trade HK 91 for Gen3+ NV set? Be careful about "stolen from Uncle Sam" special-deal on late-model NV.

      You really need a fire team. A fire team can retreat way better than a loner, and fight through traps. You need to sleep sometime, right?


    4. You'll get your fireteam, and your tribe, after the die-off. Try to avoid all that pesky combat at first.