the next crash

THE NEXT CRASH

We’ve covered this somewhere before, hidden in the mists of antiquity, but perhaps it is time to revisit the subject as the time seems right.  It is my contention, and your mileage will vary according to the level of doom and gloom and pessimism overhanging your head or the amount of optimistic unicorn sunshine shooting out of your ass, that this next extreme economic contraction will be the last one, effectively, for you ( regardless of the greatness of your skill ).  By which I mean, this will be the last time you will be laid off.  You won’t find another job, or if you do it will be at a level you cannot conceive of due to its too low pay at too few hours allowing too few modern middle class luxuries.

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The day you get your pink slip should be the day you go into full on Crap The Bed panic mode and rather than start looking for another job or using your savings to pay your bills until you can find that other job, you move out to your junk land immediately and don’t spend anything of your savings unless absolutely necessary.  Now, besides my proclivity towards hate and pessimism, why have I come to this conclusion?  You already know because I’ve covered this multiple times, but the Perfect Storm of events is either already underway or soon to be.

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The dollar is dying as the global currency.  The fracking oil is running out.  Your shiny White ass is a target as never before.  And the whole globe is disintegrating from forces you don’t want to believe will happen here because although you pretend that It Can’t Happen Here ‘Cause We Be ‘Murican’s, Muther Humper!, it will still hit us like a ton of bricks despite your Ollie Optimism.  We got out of the Great Depression by, literally, mining all our ore and burning all our oil ( all of our surplus, anyway.  The early fifties saw Peak Iron Ore for this country and before WWII was over we were running out of surplus gold and were making plans for Saudi oil ).

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We escaped our Peak Oil by converting from a gold backed dollar to a middle east backed dollar.  All of the Fracking Fag Peak Oil Deniers seem to conveniently forget that we already had a HUGE economic collapse from Peak Oil.  When the domestic lower 48 hit conventional Peak right on schedule, our economy nearly imploded.  It was far worse than 2008.  And that was an economy with lots of conventional oil and with gold.  All that happened was that the growth of production stopped.  That was all it took.  By bribing the Saudi’s to cover our currency, we escaped that economic event just as war production had allowed us to escape the Great Depression.

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( and a PS on that note.  You say “war production saved the economy”, and don’t think beyond that.  But ponder this.  To bail out the Federal Reserve Bank and the industrial corporations, it took poor civilians thrown into the meat grinder of war.  If the war hadn’t been planned and executed for MAXIMUM equipment expenditure, we wouldn’t have turned the entire economy around by saving us from overproduction.  And when your entire war effort is designed to waste equipment so you can replace it, by necessity you waste a lot of lives.  The pilots go down in poorly designed planes or ships ( or they are lost through poor leadership decisions ) or grunts roast off in crappy tanks.  Most of these instances are downplayed in the orgy of patriotism, but available for those looking )

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We got a decade of economic activity from the Alaskan oil ( now down to a near useless trickle ), and then another by essentially controlling the Siberian fields of production.  The next decade was solely saved through extreme debt and artificial stimulus, cashing in all the gains of the last twenty years of extra oil.  A bit of that was a war economy, and the government debt that entailed, but we also needed to add in the last of the cheap Chinese exports and total civilian indebtedness, selling the rest of their working years for extremely overpriced shelter.  The last decade, only fracking oil has allowed our economy to continue without going tits up. 

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So, having used every trick in the book to survive the last fifty years of contraction, which was due simply to the end of growth of energy supplies ( the economy had been based on perpetual energy growth, not just energy availability-see Peak Prosperity for a simple explanation on that one ), what can we hope for next?  Another miracle?  Okay, sure, in theory, there is another can to kick down the road.  Anyone who saw the end of the gold standard back then could never have conceived of Saudi Oil bailing us out.  To them, the end was indeed nigh.  So we could be similarly blind to a Hail Mary Pass save, economically.  I won’t say it is impossible.

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What I’d like to ask is if it is probable.  You are after all betting your life on this wager.  The next indicator of another economic crash is probably going to be your unemployment.  If you use up your resources staying in place and betting on Business As Usual, and you lose that bet, you are stuck in place living under a bridge next to the Black Ghetto.  If there is no new job, and hence no new assets to replace what you wasted, what in the name of all that is holy and just are you going to do to extract yourself? 

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Most of us have it in the back of our heads how special we are.  Few except the oldest had the stupid beat out of us by parents and we grew up thinking our feces didn’t stink.  Even if we weren’t treated like spoiled princesses, a more recent phenomenon, we also didn’t experience true pain and suffering for stupidity.  We honestly don’t think we will ever lack an escape pod.  Gott Damn stupid humping rabbits, life boats don’t magically appear in a civilization die-off! 

( .Y. )

( today's related link https://amzn.to/2Pi7TzH )

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note: lead for reloading.  Impossible to find locally, in a town of 16k but whose businesses also serve a county with an additional 45k or so.  I even went to the recycle center ( it takes a crap ton of crushing cans to get much money.  Eight years of the ex drinking beers, 15 old feed bags with all cans crushed by yours truly, 32 cans per pound, 80 pounds, $33 ) but they can't sell any lead.  The ammo places carried no lead shot.  I ordered through Amazon, at $2.40 a pound after shipping ( you buy in 50 pound units for that price ).  A pound gets you 30-70 bullets, from rifle to small caliber pistol.  I'm looking at 3.5cents a bullet ( Red Dot loaded pistol bullet in my Enfield ) compared to buying factory cast at a dime each.  In 350 bullets I've paid for the mold.  My long term plan is doubling my rifle ammo ( with the reduced rounds ) to 10k rounds.  $220 in powder, $180 in lead and $150 in primers.  I'll have to think on extra cases.  If you can't find lead locally, I've added the product to my bulk buying page https://bisonbulk.blogspot.com/ .  
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