cyclic collapse 1 of 2

CYCLIC COLLAPSE

A minion mentioned the book “Twilight Of Abundance” by David Archibald when we were discussing the possibility of Global Cooling ( verses Gore Warming ).  I’m glad I bought the book and it was worth the $7 delivered for a used copy, but I’d warm everyone off of buying their own copy.  This guy has a lot of holes in his education, as bright as he might be in some fields.  The degree of propagandized jingoistic ‘Murica First attitude he applies to his analysis is breathtakingly moronic.

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An 18 year old just escaping from Public Holding Indoctrination Cells might look at the world in simplistic two dimensional terms, stating Germany was just jealous and mean and a bully and they started both wars, but I’d expect a so called expert selling me a book to have advanced from that point.  Well, ‘Ol Davy Boy has not.  That was essentially what he said, as he claimed China was acting just like Germany had.  I’m not stating that this invalidated his cooling thesis, because he seemingly is knowledgeable in climate science ( or not, but it really doesn’t matter since everyone and his dog, and the dogs religious leader, seems to be an expert in climate science anymore ).

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I’m merely saying you shouldn’t pay to read an author that doesn’t realize his limitations.  Just because you got paid for your views on finance and climate science doesn’t make you an expert.  It makes you a paid shrill.  But that also includes Al Gore, doesn’t it?  The sad fact is that both sides of the weather change debate are in someone’s pocket.  The deniers benefit the corporations wanting cheaper commodities without taxes or restrictions ( like any restrictions on polluting our drinking water.  Cancer was widespread prior to the factories moving to China.  If we last long enough economically you’ll see that return here ) and the Warmers want lots of government control like the good little communist dingus suckers that they are.

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And it doesn’t matter past an intellectual level.  Either way, warming or cooling, our food production is humped.  Not that you even know how that will play out as you can’t even find out the truth about our food imports.  Government agencies tasked with lying to avoid any panic claim a mere 3% of our food is imported, alarmists say 40%.  Yikes!  But, no matter, the oil imports drying up will kill our production anyway ( it just would have been nice to get solid information ).  Along with the end of the PetroDollar giving us hyperinflation.

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The reason I felt the book wasn’t a complete waste of time was that there were plenty of good facts and analysis ( if anything, he didn’t make a strong enough case for complete pessimism and panic-so you can’t claim he was too alarmist ).  He downplayed the oil crisis but still gave out enough facts for those reading between the lines, and he was pretty good on the state of the global grain production and reserves.  One clue he dribbled out before quickly returning to his less informed hobby horses was a couple of studies on Animal Model Cyclic Population Collapse.

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The Canadian snowshoe hare in several studies dropped to ten percent carrying capacity of the land after overpopulation.  Considering that the other model studied was reindeer on an island suffering a complete 100% die-off, that ten percent of carrying capacity sounds pretty darn good.  It might be optimistic, given refugees leaving one area for another ( although one hopes the studies took that into account-no details were given ), but at least it gives you a baseline for planning and study. 

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One oft mentioned figure is the American Indian die off from White Boy diseases.  It was estimated that roughly a hundred and ten million Indigs lived in the Americas prior to Columbus and after smallpox and other epidemics went through the lands about 7 million survived ( although figures are all over the map, this seems to be the better estimate ).  This would be in line with European epidemics, where the initial die-off is up to 90%, then each fresh outbreak of the same disease kills far less as immunity is built up.

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So it would seem that both disease outbreaks and overpopulation die-off’s have the same 90% casualty rate, although you need to keep that 10% of carrying capacity figure in mind.  A plague kills 90%.  Overpopulation leading to famine kills 90% of the INITIAL population, not the current one just prior to the collapse.  In other words, how many rabbits or people were there BEFORE the food supply went into decline, subtract 90%.  The 110 million estimated inhabiting of two continents were obviously living above the carrying capacity of the land ( the Mayans and Anazasi had proven that some centuries prior ).  

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From the Mississippi Mound civilization to the Amazon agricultural system using biochar to the aquaculture and potato plantations of the Inca’s and the Mexico City floating islands for crops, everywhere the civilizations were ingeniously growing far more than was normal under less centralized conditions.  The Inca’s were using imported sardines as part of their fertilizers and the Amazonians were probably deforesting past replacement.  One could even hazard a guess that the Aztec sacrifices were not wasteful due to religion or that the elite were reverting to cannibalism, but that the corpses were badly needed fertilizer for failing systems.

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The only difference between the Americas and the rest of the world were the lack of metal and domesticated animals ( and the fact they had the least effective grain for maintaining a civilization ).  Culturally they were the same as everyone else.  Reproduce past carrying capacity and then die horribly.  Our colonialism just hastened the process, but they must have already been in overreach.  I bring that up to discuss the true number of folks that the land has the capacity of supporting.

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With trade.  Which is different than without trade.  However, I’ve gone from trying to wrap up this subject to instead expanding it, so we continue tomorrow.

END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2Efb6O0 )

 

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