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Thursday, February 9, 2017

druid doomer denier


DRUID DOOMER DENIER

Just as Commander Zero gave me plenty to write about a few weeks ago when he suggested that every prepper tool should cost at least a days wages if you were to be considered worthy of saving, now the Druid Dude is up to his usual deriding all claims of doomers that The End Is Nigh And We Are All Going To Die.  He doesn’t deny that the end is indeed nigh, but his unrealistically optimistic ray of sunshine blowing out of his ass blinding most of his readers gives the illusion that once you embrace permiculture gardening you shall be a happy little peasant serfing ( intentional misspelling ) the collapse in style.  As I’ve said more than once, the Druid Dude is forever in my limited bro-mance circle, from having introduced me to the pretty close to one book fits all doomer needs “Overshoot” by Clatton.  The Druid Dude is far smarter than I, yet having the same source material refuses to acknowledge that pessimism is the order of the day.  That is our fundamental difference.  Like a close member of your family, you love him even as you admit he’s kind of a douche.

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Last week ( start of February, 2017 ) he was yet again hating on the Calamity Corps for ignoring history.  He unfolded the cycles of history to prove to us that empires fell and rose and civilizations collapses as others prospered.  End result, while the economic collapse will be painful it will be business as usual in a pre-carbon fuel way ( the gist of his stair step collapse theory ).  Now, if I was one of the faithful for this kind of soft collapse, I think I’d be a bit pissed that while the Druid Dude is entirely correct, it is only in the macro sense.  Some areas will be less effected than others, but those areas suffering the most will primarily be where all his readers will be.  They will experience a Rwanda circa the ‘90‘s, not a Great Britain who signed over its colonies more or less peacefully and settled into a Forever Crap Economy.  I’ve pointed this out several times, and you would be a fool to ignore the end of oil ushering in the end of oil based agriculture with STILL increasing overpopulation even if the rate of increase has fallen.  The Druid Dude has such a wonderful grasp of history that he is only seeing the big long term picture and ignores the immediate horrid journey to get there.

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I look at history in a generalist way.  And looking at the collapse of empires, you always see a near complete die-off.  Humanity in general is never, ever threatened.  But the imperial citizenry is pretty much double dog dingus humped.  Our imperial implosion will indeed be just like any other in history, just as the Druid Dude ascertains.  Which means that the center imperial nation is wiped off the map with only a minimum of successful escapees.  Population will be severely reduced.  Because one of the defining characteristics of collapsing civilizations is denuded soil.  That means you can’t feed your people.  Yes, we will return to decentralized organic farming.  AFTER the friggin die-off!!!  Sweet Baby Jesus On A Pogo Stick!  90%+ die-offs are absolutely no picnic.  They usually include close enough to everybody that you should just count on being part of the body count, a twisted bleeding corpse surrounded by your semi-auto weapons in the suburbs. 

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The Four Corners feathers not dots Indians had a nice civilization going on.  Then the long term precipitation changed and they couldn’t grow enough crops to survive.  Let alone build.  Only a few percentage escaped ( writers of said civilization like to give Happy Joy Hope that they all dispersed to neighboring villages and were greeted by distant family members with open arms.  This is a great theory, if we assume the weather didn’t change there for the worse-which to me seems like a lot to assume ).  The Mayans had a swell civilization going on in the jungles of Central America.  Then the rains stopped and the area never recovered.  Greece never recovered for two thousands years plus after they destroyed their farmland from overpopulation.  When the Spanish visited the Inca’s, those who survived the diseases were quickly killed off in the silver mines.  The Mongols had no problem accepting unconditional surrender, but if not they could easily kill every single non-new slave in an entire metropolis.  Now, granted, the last two examples were unlimited warfare rather than civilizations destroying themselves from resource exhaustion, but just like Rome that is usually just the slightly quicker collapse of an empire/civilization already on its way through decline.

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Going by historical example, as the Druid Dude wishes us to do, you might notice that the end is usually full of slaughter and starvation, disease and enslavement.  Not happy peasants tending their perennials in blissful contact with Mother Earth.  Why, oh why, great exalted Poo-Ba of the Druid Order, must you show me how much you hate me, when all I do is shower you with love and buy all your books to support your further research?  And, ah, yes, this time will be different.  Not because history won’t fulfill another cycle, because it will, but because the entire globe is now a resource collapse area once the oil stops pumping.  The dark ages will last about a thousand years, given the time it takes soil to rejuvenate.  At least in the fortunate areas.  How about that for a slight disruption of the historical cycles?  Yes, it will resume at a much later date.  But I certainly don’t call that a soft collapse.  I don’t call it a return to normalcy after a fall, not when the whole planet will see such a huge die-off. 

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Eventually, yes, all will be well once population drastically falls below solar economy output.  Then after that Dark Age we will indeed restart the whole ugly cycle.  And yes, during that Dark Age, family life will function as biologically normal.  But you can’t discount the die-off, because without it family life CANNOT return to normal.  And a 99% die-off is nothing other than a calamity.  Only by stretching out the time frame and averaging out deaths does it turn into background noise.  For those boots on the ground, at the time, the noise will be hideous.  And to think the die-off will last generations?  How can you think that when the oil won’t last that long ( and all our food is oil based, yo )?

END
 
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14 comments:

  1. "...seeing the big long term picture and ignores the immediate horrid journey to get there."
    I like how Jim Willie once stated this same concept: "The final destination will be somewhat stable, but the US will have to travel down a third world corridor to get there."

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    1. I like JW-he is even more paranoid than I am.

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  2. The oil producing food will last generations - at least if the elites in charge have even half a brain. Elites need to eat too after all. Texas and North Dakota will continue to produce and refine oil, and the local or national armed forces will make certain that oil goes into 'defence' and food. It wont be ENOUGH defence or food for everyone by any means, but those will be the first two priorities as long as anyone can be said to be in charge. SO the population step down will NOT be overnight. It wont be multi-generation as druid dude thinks either. It will be a rapids waterfall rapids waterfall scenario. The first die off has already begun. Population growth in the highest population growth areas (aka the third world) is hitting its peak as drought, warfare, and birth control, start to take their tolls.

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    1. I can't agree that the Elite have half a brain. I see no conclusive proof of rational governance or resource management.

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    2. Oh, I think they are willfully blind, but when slapped in the face with reality they will do whatever they have to in order to survive and remain in control.
      Kill all the kids? Sure if it buys them another day of power.
      Sacrifice all the old folks in nursing homes? wouldn't even be a debate, except about how to do it effectively.
      Cut off the left hands of every third person? Check
      etc. Etc. As long as they survive and are in power.
      The only issue is that they aren't trained to look beyond their nose as far as the long view is concerned. It is like driving a car at 90mph and only looking out the side windows to figure out where you are going - you can completely miss the bridge out sign until it is too late.

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    3. Aren't most folks willfully blind? That is why I'm not writing doom for a regular paycheck.

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  3. Agreed. I may be a butthead, but I don't care that much if the human race survives, if in the process, me and everyone I care about dies of starvation or disease. I'd rather panic a bit more and at least go down fighting.

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    1. We want the human race to survive-but that just means a few score thousand for good genetic variety ( you can do it with less but its not a good idea ).

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    2. I'm not cheering for our demise, but I don't think feeling good about someone, somewhere surviving a collapse is helpful. I'll focus on my own chances right here.

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    3. Not sure where you went with that. Are you saying, "I don't care about if others die or not" or the opposite? I WANT most everyone else to die, but then I'm a selfish prick.

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  4. Yo Bro hope your not in that flood! stay safe!peace

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    1. Locally, no worse than usual. At work, our parking lot backed up as the drain to the river clogged and everyone's drain water up the hill surrounded us with a moat. Services closed for the day, so everyone got a half day of work except me. The river is overflowing but on par. Hell, I didn't ever know we had a dam up near the Utah border. Well, had :)

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  5. James, did you ever read the sci-fi book A Canticle for Leibowitz. One of the only doomer fiction books that addresses the long cycle. Worth it. S in Fl.

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    1. I remember not liking it, but perhaps it is one I need to give another chance. I'll order a copy-what the hell.

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