oil economy lies 9

OIL ECONOMY LIES 9

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note: I just ordered Creekmore's new book, if you'd like to wait for my review before deciding whether to order your own copy or not.
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Lie #7) The US has easily weathered severe economic depressions before and can do so again.

If you were a Chinaman, odds are that you wouldn’t have your head up your ass as far as your average American.  Okay, perhaps you would.  Denying Peak Oil doesn’t know national borders and your average rice eater might only have the last several decades of economic bubble to reference.  But I would wager your apples to apples comparison between the two cultures, between the same analytical introspection history aware individual would favor the Chinese in realistic expectations.  They have thousands of years of history compared to our hundreds.  And strange as it may sound, just as one incidence does not make a trend, so a few centuries does not make  a very good study to judge the future with.  And mining is not the same as sustainability.  While the Chinese have had plenty of bad experiences with the regime of the week doing serious environmental damage, by and large most of the geological area has been able to recover and be reused ( as opposed to a lot of European areas that never recover ecologically ).  The Chinese experience, by and large, is huge peaks and valley’s in population and famines/diseases, but continuation.  The West, by contrast, seems to be stuck in the same overpopulation/overexploitation mode, with the expectation that the former empire strips the place to the bedrock and then fortune sails to another area, never to return.

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So, you would think that Westerners, time and again experiencing complete and utter ruin, would be more attuned to boom and bust and the Chinese would have a false sense of safety as the recovery always come around sooner or later.  Yet, our civilization seems to discount doom, and the Chinese to expect it.  You would expect the opposite for each.  It might have to do with time scales, the Chinese busts happening more frequently and hence always on ones mind, whereas westerners seem to think their empires last for hundreds of years ( and then the magical myth of long slow drawn out collapse makes that seem okay ) and are always yet another generation from happening and so no worries.

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If you asked our Chinese student, he would tell you that famines, plagues, hyperinflation, warlord massacres and all the rest of civilizations downsides happen on a regular basis.  Ask the western one and he would explain why his empire is the best that ever was and patiently explain how because of that, this time is indeed different, and nothing all that bad is going to happen.  Hubris, like ignorance, is bliss.  So, ask almost any American, even or especially those survivalists, and they tell you nothing unduly unpleasant is going to happen.  A few hiccups and bumps in the road, then the worthy rich will stay rich and the undeserving proletariat will reap their just overdue rewards.  No one will have to give up their central air or SUV.  Normalcy will return.  Why, WE survived a civil war and all our institutions remained intact.  Why, WE have had plenty of depressions and if you didn’t have too much money in stocks then there was no need to jump out a high story window ( why didn’t they just shoot themselves?  Less time to suffer.  I think New York City was the first in the nation-outside racial laws disarming Blacks-with gun control in the late 1800’s, so perhaps they couldn’t.  Nice going, looking out for pedestrians safety! ).  And you can’t tell most Americans that they got rich on looting a continent and the palace is down to striped walls with gaps in the floorboards. 

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They will contort themselves “proving” a new resource is there for the taking, restoring all our wealth, if we just elect a new hero to lead our way.  Barf.  No, sorry.  This is about as simple as can be.  The resources, the surpluses, the energy bonanzas are all gone.  Those underpinned the wealth and they are all used up.  What resources are left need to be distributed between too many people ( we are overpopulated.  But don’t worry your pretty little head over letting more Muslims and Latinos in ).  All other downturns saw a resumption in extraction to reprime the wealth pump.  And that won’t happen this time.  Our colonies are running out of “our” resources, and the homelands are used up.  When we wake up from the party, and there is no Hair Of The Dog, we are going to be a bit perturbed.

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