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Friday, March 4, 2016

oil economy lies 8


OIL ECONOMY LIES 8

Lie # 6) Even if Peak Oil is 100% correct, we still have half of our global oil left.

Nobody wants to even admit Peak Oil is a “thing”.  National Geographic ran a piece not so long ago claiming Saudi Arabia was going to be the worlds top oil producer fifty years from now ( this despite the average oil field only producing viably for around forty years, which they had already done prior to the article ).  You are still to this day reading survivalist “experts” claiming Peak hasn’t even started yet and won’t for some time ( even if it is hard to see how you can have global production growth for over a hundred years, then it stops around 2005, and NEVER recovers in ten years except for the illusion of lower BTU Fake Oil substitutes-all the while the majority of exporters are seeing an average of 5 to 7% a year declines-and somehow Peak Oil isn’t something to worry about for another decade ).

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Then there are a few folks slightly smarter and less obtuse and further along in the process of pulling their head out of their fetus warm and cozy but stinky rectum who will brave the mocking and taunts of their brethren and go so far as to admit Peak Oil is real and in our rear view mirror but hey, not to worry there bro-hound, ‘cause we still have like the other trillion barrels half of our total oil reserves left to pump out of the ground.  It is STILL Happy Motoring ahead like practically forever ( or, a hundred more years-whichever comes first ).  This would be a very reassuring fantasy if it were true because we’d have plenty of time to churn out all of those solar panels we need, rearrange our cities back into pedestrian friendly areas surrounded by organic permaculture farms and transition our entire economies.  However, Houston, we have several problems.  First of all, reserves have been exaggerated.  OPEC production quotas were based on estimated reserves and to maximize pumping the reserves were guessed pretty high.  Most countries kept their reserve data state secrets ( when, if there was nothing bad to see, you would think a bit of transparency was in order ).  In the end, countries reserve estimates are as reliable as the US governments official unemployment rate.  And the “we still have half of our oil left” paradigm is based on the official reserve numbers.  It could be 25% less.  Hell, it could be worse than that.  Saudi Arabia was approaching 90% water cut in their production ( the amount of water per gallon pumped to increase pressure to get the oil out of the ground ) and that was PRIOR to the 2005 book by Matthew Simmons.  All is not Glittery Unicorn Farts perfect as we are told.

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Another problem is that even if oil production isn’t going to plummet off of a cliff, exporting nations are mostly dry crapholes full of young demographics breeding at rabbit levels.  Evidently there simply isn’t enough on those free satellite channels because humping seems to be the number one recreational sport in Third World Countries ( not that we are much better, allowing breeders unimpeded access into our country, the only saving grace that they are Catholic rather than Muslim ).  Every year, even if oil production wasn’t declining, which it is in the majority of exporting countries, more of those countries population growth needs to keep the oil at home for domestic use.  For thousands of years, centralized agricultural societies have used population growth as a military strategy.  And for thousands of years one set of good years with higher births has led to population crashes when the weather turns and crop yields fall.  Overpopulation is the old normal and nobody is going to stop that ( even China just saw a slowdown in the increase with its One Child Policy ).   

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You also have the issue of infrastructure.  Building it takes money and resources and political will.  Our entire globe was built up on a surplus of inexpensive oil to be run on cheap and abundant oil.  Cheap and abundant being the key words.  Yes, I’ll freely admit to preaching full blown Peak Oil fear and believing the end would have already arrived.  Failing to see the global triage for food rather than the immediate supply issue.  I will say however, that by being extra paranoid I made decisions that placed me ahead of the curve personal preparation wise, and I fail to see any harm in my early irrational panicking.  But now, looking back, you can see the issue wasn’t the fall in oil supply but the fall in Cheap And Abundant oil.  You can’t run our infrastructure on expensive oil.  Our economies, for one, demand nearly free gushing in its flow petroleum.  And since our economic infrastructure is the first to take a hit from Peak Oil 2005, we no longer have that asset to rebuild.  It is about as simple as that.

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We no longer have the resources to rebuild, either.  We used the last of the cheap oil in the ‘90’s to start extracting ores of a highly diffuse nature, the last of the concentrated near ground ores long gone ( remember us talking about how the gold mining industry has doubled the energy in the last ten years needed to extract the ore?  Double the diesel for 90% of the gold ).  And you all have to admit there is ZERO political will to change anything, as the way things are is what the Powers That Be wealth is built on.  The Other Half Of The Oil, if we indeed even have close to half left, is no where close to providing us Business As Usual.  Las Vegas Bookie Odds say that more than likely, our civilization will be a depopulated smoldering ruin with plenty of oil still left in the ground.

END

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