Friday, May 15, 2020

cornapocalypse 2


CORNAPOCALYPSE 2
The basic question I'm asking myself is, why. Why are the politician puppets ( which includes your butt boy Orange Man ) going so far out of their way to ruin the economy and kill us all from supply chain disruptions? JUST because the banks want another bail-out? It almost seems the Nightly Repo charade was sufficient. So, I surmised that China pulled the trigger on an economic war. I still think that theory has merit. That way, it doesn't matter who planted the virus as a bio-weapon, it is explained either way.
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Once the meat shortages started, AFTER all the other foods were slowly restocked except maybe rice ( I don't go to the bulk stores, so I only have grocery retail as an indicator ), I thought perhaps the medical supplies cut off from trade included vet meds and factory meat production needs butt tons of antibiotics and hormones and whatnot. That explains the Carcass To The Dump news. I grant you, the legitimate butcher plant closures have an effect, but I NEVER believe that what the media shows is the whole story. But the above, still being theoretically true, does NOT explain why the trade war even started.
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Yes, we could go all in on geopolitics, and claim that China was a huge threat to US power, the petrodollar and so on and such. This ignores the fact that the US was already eclipsed by China economically ( larger by PPP rather than GDP ), about six or seven years ago, at the same time the US military was unable to eliminate further assaults on the PetroDollar. Yeah, can you say Venezuela? All that media horsecrap about socialism, the simple embarrassing fact is that a podunk Banana Republic was unable to be Regime Changed by big bad and mighty Uncle Sugar.
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We overthrew Iraq and Libya after they threatened the monopoly of the petrodollar. Remember the witch cackle from Hilary as she proclaimed the news, a tiny stream of urine cascading down her leg as the frigid bitch came closer to orgasm than any other time of her life? That was our last military victory, in Libya. Since then, we have been unable to stop countries from ( at least partially ) dumping the dollar. Even India started trading for oil by other means. I suppose we cannot piss them off if we want them to be our next factory colony.
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Not that that will ever happen. The speed of the collapse and the crawl of progress in a country still drinking water from a corpse river ( with leprosy and Black Plague ) don't jibe up. Oh, I'm sorry! Did I offend anyone of Dot Indian descent? Your parents owned a 7-11 in Cleveland. What the hell do you know about the country of their birth? Shut up, snowflake. And I'm not trying to resurrect the White Mans Burden propaganda. The US had Turd World diseases here until rather recently, about the time Yankee Scum Lincoln was jerking off to photo's of dead Confederate civilians.
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My question was, you give a country British Coal Age manufacturing infrastructure, complete with a language used by both worlds superpowers so as to facilitate trade, and how do they screw it up so badly? My vote is curry. Crap just ain't right. Anyway, in a lot of ways, parts of the US are just as bad as some of India's. I'm not trying to throw stones in the greenhouse. I'm saying, “India will be our new manufacturer” is as likely as me finding an even richer Sugar Momma. Not happening. China will prioritize the drug manufacturing feedstock so India can't even trade us for meds. And you think they will build car parts?
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Again, AGAIN I have to beat you over the head with my OtherColor Be Cool stick. Peak Oil was 2005. Fracking oil is the limp dingus hairlip banjo playing half cousin of conventional oil. It contains about as much energy as the methane in my farts ( okay, a SMIDGE more, but barely ). Oil production peaked in 2005. The only growth in production was Fracking. Which means that the globe saw energy production fall for fifteen years, as a strong case could be made for negative net energy from fracking. You don't build another country worth of factories with negative energy supply. Now calculate PER CAPITA energy use and that line on the chart falls even faster.
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In a falling energy environment, ailing empires do not keep recovering but rather fall economically even more. I don't WANT to admit there is no coming back from this trade war, but it sure seems far more likely than a return to business as usual. We don't have coal, soybeans or Hollywood movies going over to China, so why would they even consider continual trade? The US was ONLY 20% of their exports, and all they were getting was worthless T-Bills at a negative interest rate ( once inflation is factored in ). 20% loss is acceptable when either your trading partner attacked you, or you needed to eliminate them as a credible threat.
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That is one of the problems when you attack a country for not using your currency, and because your economy also needed more gold as your vaults were empty. Other countries see themselves as the next target. Why WOULDN'T China be afraid of a future attack as we got desperately weaker and they got stronger? ( yes, a case can be made for China's actual economic weakness, but since all countries are about the same, it is a relative matter. And relatively speaking China is both not so terrible AND in a lot of ways, except energy, doing better than us. That energy issues does tend to bite one in the ass of course ).
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All in all, I just don't see any advantage for the US in a trade war. We don't hold many strong cards. Which is why I'm convinced that the trade war was more than geopolitical maneuvering. We HAD to do something as desperate as closing the economy down. And I can only see food as a strong enough motivator. Yes, I understand there is not a direct and immediate link. We stopped using ethanol for fuel ( or, we COULD have anyway. I do not know if the replacement was available ) and higher meat prices would have damped down consumption.
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So the corn supply must have been magnitudes worse than reported for us to use such a drastic Demand Destruction as shutting down most transportation and cutting off almost all meat supply. Now, I grant you, it cannot be that simple. It could have been SOME ethanol shortages, and SOME vet med shortages, and SOME increased bad weather. Perhaps it wasn't solely the corn supply. But something panicked the powers that be. There could have been a straw on the camels back, like perhaps there were 130 million illegals here, not just 30, and there was a LOT more demand for diminishing food than was thought.
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Perhaps the vet meds were in short supply last year, not just now. Perhaps they could cover up 20% corn losses last year, but this year we were going to see double or triple that. Better to pull the plug now rather than later. And yes, I know, that still doesn't completely explain the rest of the world going Full Retard. Unless the economic collapse was a lot worse last year, and foreign countries were desperate for another 2008 bail-out, and our price was pretending the Beer Virus was New Black Death ( or, we did give China and Italy and Iran the Super Strain ).
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I don't know if I'll continue with this. I'm enjoying it, I just don't know if there is much more to cover. If I do carry on, it will be after a short break.
( .Y. )
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12 comments:

  1. I've watched some of the Yanasa Ama farming and weather videos that you recommended in a previous post. He is very good.

    He has useful information for farmers and gardeners. He is like Ice Age Farmer except Yanasa Ama is more down-to-earth, practical and calm.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I think IAF believes the green alien overlords are changing the weather so we all eat soylent green and are then open to their radio wave programming. Or something.

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  2. can we say "perfect storm"?

    just not hurricane strength yet.

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  3. Went to the butcher today (every 2 week trip for "fresh" supplies). Most everything in stock, but beef and pork up 20% in price pretty much across the board. (I don't pay attention to chicken, i'm not PAYING for chicken).

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    1. Lawyer Boy, as is his wont, was just screaming about how Food Price Hikes Worse Than 1970's! Not stated, meat prices were down quite a bit the last few years. To me, a 20% hike is logical and better than NO meat at a cheaper price. Show me a 200% hike and we aren't much off the 2009 prices, still. Room yet before we must panic. PS-this is a note to minions, not you personally. I usually hijack minions comments. It was one of my many enduring traits. PPS-if you been with me awhile, apologies. Don't recognize the initials. PPPS-don't you hate when there are so many postscripts?

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    2. I agree, I'd rather the prices go up (supply demand, econ 101 all that jazz) than say "limit 2 pieces" Yo, I don't wanna come back every other day. Let me decide what I can afford and want. That's how it's supposed to work.

      who's Lawyer Boy?

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    3. I just started using "Lawyer Boy" after it popped into my head the other day. When I'm witty I let everyone know about it LOL. The ex-lawyer that runs the Hair On Fire prepper websites such as The Economic Collapse Blog. Michael Synder? Anyway, I'm NOT a fan. I bought one of his paper novels, and there was a By Gawd Batman Secret Door on the side of the mountain for a retreat. And he gives Fundamentalists a bad name. I have a long list of hate, believe me. He's a charlatan prepper guru and I'm sure he was a hack lawyer. I'll stop now to rescue my blood pressure

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  4. I believe it is as simple as overpopulation driving it all.
    No more jobs available to keep the deplorables quiet.
    Feed them until you can reach your bunker and then let them have at it.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Peak Energy Resources Per Capita globally was 1979. We escaped the inevitable for a good long while. I guess it is silly to be surprised now.

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  5. Scarecrow (J.G.)May 15, 2020 at 7:45 PM

    Funny, I always picture Snyder with a big ole televangelical grin when I read his stuff. Not that I don't like me some doom porn, all Empires collapse in time, but...yeah. Lawyer Boy works too.

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    Replies
    1. Doom porn is great, but you must make it believable. When EVERYTHING is going to cause the balloon to go up, nothing is very scary.

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