Wednesday, June 26, 2019

food prices 2


FOOD PRICES 2
One day, we WILL be suffering mightily from our centralized oil based food production paradigm. That day is not now, after the Midwest flooding. It also doesn't matter that China is losing butt tons of pork butt to disease. Yes, prices go up. Meat prices and gasoline prices are always spiking up and down. That is why you have a deep freezer, and a bicycle. Well, why I have a bike. You are completely dependent on a car. I won't beat on that horse today. The point is, WHY are you not used to price fluctuations in food and energy?
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You hear some guy talking about how much of an increase there was in his heating oil bill, and what do you do? Me? I wonder why the hell he hasn't insulated and installed an Earth Tube. If you can afford to fill a large fuel tank, how much cheaper would a hundred feet of trench be? And it isn't like you have to insulate the whole darn house. A couple of wool blankets and a feather comforter is $100-$120 per bed. Turn off the water to upstairs and you only have to heat and insulate half the house.
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You can shower downstairs. If you need to use the upstairs bathroom in the middle of the night, turn on the water again in the morning to flush ( I would make the no rent paying leeches haul the water up by hand but I'm sure you'll want to coddle your marshmallow family to the point they make terrible cannon fodder for the apocalypse ). Anyway, I can lead you to water but I can't make you drink. Optimistic Ollies won't survive, but they sure are enjoying the present. And you just might be right, so there is that also keeping you warm at night.
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But, we were going to focus on assuming food prices head to the stratosphere ( rather than me telling you why they most likely won't-Most Likely isn't a very good survival plan either ). Everyone thinks we are automatically screwed. They are assuming that the globalized food transportation system won't kick in as it has for the last thirty years. When one country cuts off oil, say, the 1979 Oil Embargo or today's Iran Oil Embargo, they just buy it from another country that bought it from the first.
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When food shortages happen in one country, they just get food shipped in from whoever has a surplus at the moment. It is globalized JIT food supplies. The danger is when nobody has a surplus, which almost happened ten years ago with widespread drought. One time in the future, it will happen again. Or, this tariff nonsense gets to the point trade halts. Or, food will be weaponized. But for NOW, the system still holds. But because you are a damn fool for trying to time Black Swans, we discuss what can happen that is different than right now.
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For whatever reason, what if food prices spiked? If there is a sudden shortage of corn, soy and hay as is currently occurring, yes, prices double or triple ( I believe it is hay that doubled, but the corn and soy might have downward pressure from the end of Chinese demand in said tariff conflict ). But do grocery store prices spike? Yes, they could. WILL they? Might the government provide tax incentives or directly subsidize the growers or middlemen to keep costs down? Why not? It is pretty cheap insurance against disruption.
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The government already buys food and distributes it to ( feather ) Indians and old people and school lunches, creating demand. Why couldn't they buy up overseas grain and sell it below cost? Or, buy expensive domestic supplies and sell below cost. Or something similar. They already doubled the Food Stamp program the last economic contraction. They have no problem throwing money at any problem. Do you think it escapes any President that if food prices increase beyond seasonal or one off event short term hikes, he won't get reelected? The government loves social engineering, still.
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How much extra have smokers been penalized by direct government intervention? How many extra Lesbian Basket Weaving graduates do we have taking over the culture because the government subsidized college tuition? The government does what it takes to stimulate the economy, such as making sure all the new Mexican illegal immigrants building houses could get a NINJA loan ( prior to the housing bubble ). I'm NOT saying you shouldn't panic buy food now before prices go up. What I'm saying is that the flooding isn't going to be food hyperinflation. Not if the government decides to intervene. No, that doesn't mean I think government welfare is a great idea.
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It JUST means all this panic might be over very little. You bitches panic over food whenever there are weather related events, yet still drive your vehicles around completely unconcerned that imports are 35-40% of your gas and fracking ( which cannot sustain itself ) is another third. I know, I said I wouldn't harp on that. I'm merely pointing out you should panic smarter instead of panicking harder. You should have panicked over stocking food when it was dirt cheap and you could have bought when no one else was interested.
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Actually, now is STILL a great time to be buying wheat or rice ( that one's just for you, Dingo my brother ) before their prices go up just because demand switches over to them. I know buying storage food can suck, if only because you have to feed all those damn ingrate family, plus the cost of storage containers never dropped from when oil prices had surged. But, this might be one of your last chances to do it relatively cheaply. If the government starts buying to keep down costs, that means cheap grain to the food production industry, NOT to you as a civilian buying grain. That market might even dry up altogether.
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So, buying groceries should see increases, yet not Famine Is Coming increases, BUT!, you could still see extreme price hikes at the feed store or from the LDS cannery or Mom & Pop preparedness food companies because the gov welfare to keep a lid on prices will be directed to big industry players only. Big corporation welfare ONLY. You'll still benefit, buying cheaper meat and dairy and processed foods than the free market would deliver, but that saving will NOT be across the board. So, storage food panic buy? Probably a great idea. Fill the freezer? Oh, yeah.
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But panic over your food budget going up to the point of Days Of Yore propaganda where grandma had to choose between cat food or the heating bill? I don't think so. Not to say it won't happen, but if it does it will be for different reasons. Say, all the Food Stamp Diversity legions just get their dollar amounts indexed to food inflation, but all the Deplorables having to pay full price because they have “assets” ( like an expensive mortgaged house they can't afford ) and so don't qualify for assistance. That is reverse discrimination and would be a deliberate Food Weapon attack.
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But that is STILL government subsidizing food, just selectively. What if there wasn't any gun control, but to get Food Stamps for your kids you weren't allowed to own any firearms? There is using food inflation against you. I have no doubt the government would do something like that. But that is political and part of the coming civil war. It is deliberately picking winners and losers, to eat, just like those damn communists. As I already said, patriots store food for the coming fight.
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This article in no way invalidates my previous concerns of the government fighting you with food, not just drones or SWAT teams. This article ONLY addresses grocery store prices due to the flooding. I'm mainly pointing out the probability that grocery store prices stay relatively stable, so don't spend ALL your money on day to day grocery storage thinking they won't. Leave plenty for long term storage food and ammo.
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And even if the floods never happened, NOW is the time to buy the crap out of storage grain and ammunition. Low prices were ALWAYS an anomaly. Thinking otherwise is being Optimistically Stupid. I hope you didn't spend all your cheap carbine ammo budget on a FLIR scope.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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note: a day or two ago, talking about motorcycle batteries for the apocalypse ( they can be stored dry, then flooded and trickle charged from solar, an advantage over the larger size that need AC power to give an initial charge ) in the comments section, I mixed up sealed and unsealed batteries in my conversation.  Now I feel like an idiot.  Hell, if I was perfect you would all resent me and my hair even more.
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28 comments:

  1. “I know buying storage food can suck, if only because you have to feed all those damn ingrate family”


    I will say that is one of the definite advantages of going it alone. I have no such responsibilities for anyone but myself. Yes, there’s still my elderly mother, and my alcoholic 52 year old brother. But I doubt that either will still be around when we start see these problems come to fruition. I do have family members living in close proximity (to where I live now, not my hermitage parcel) but they’re political opposition, and the reason that commiefornia is in the mess that it’s in, thus, they’re entirely on their own…

    It will be lonely out there, therefore I plan on spending most of my days hanging out at your place (Just kidding. I won’t really do that to you :D Though if I’m feeling generous, I might invite you out to lunch at the local McDonald’s, my treat :D )

    In other news, I’m looking around for a motorcycle, probably a dual sport. Yes, there is still an oil dependence, but at least it’s minimized. Motorcycles are hella dangerous, but if you put that issue aside, they are the near perfect alternative vehicle, for someone that’s in a limited income situation, as am I.

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    1. Bicycles are just as dangerous, as far as being run over by cell phone talking ( even if against the law, I still see it near daily, years on ) illegal without insurance. Assuming you don't wreck yourself, granted. I'm only planning on an e-bicycle for extreme low cost, but I understand it is rolling the dice. On the plus side, hard to even get stuck in a bike or motorbike compared to the car ( and those dirt roads do get muddy a few times each Spring ). I just saw a vid, Honda re-introduced that 110CC bike with the white plastic fairing. It has a different name now, it was a "Passport" when I had one early '80's. Cheap and near indestructible, if you go with Jap over Chinese. Fun Filled Fact-that bike introduced in the 1950's has more units produced of any motor vehicle ever made.

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    2. The one thing that I have going for me with regards to motorcycle riding, is that I have common sense, as well as an overabundance of paranoia. Between the two, I think that I will be just fine. But of course, it’s always a roll of the dice…

      The Jap bikes are far superior, no doubt. The biggest problem is my location. There is nothing close by to where I am, and driving all over Timbuktu (Average distance 1.5 to 2 hours) to look at used motorcycles that I may very well not purchase, is a daunting prospect. This makes the Chinese bike that is drop shipped to my door a much more appealing aspect, though admittedly, I do not deny that I’m always one to take the easy way out of a situation.

      Here are two that have piqued my interest. I am leaning towards the Tao Tao at the moment, since I know that they have a headquarters in the US, and there is parts availability. That might be true with the other as well, but have not verified yet.

      https://www.powersportsmax.com/product_info.php/products_id/21854

      https://www.killermotorsports.com/tao-tao-125cc-hellcat-motorcycle.html

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    3. Yeah, the Chink bike is just a few bucks over the 1980 Honda price, so...You can work on it yourself so it would be silly to NOT buy it. The difference between a Mac and a Windows computer, really.

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    4. Yep, cycles that are dual sport and smaller cc sized up to 250 cc sized are ideal. (Avoid the 400-650 sizes as they are overkill and ungainly to manage in various scenarios) Look to africa and asia as an example, they are everywhere and can be kept running by a lester with no education. Honda and kawasaki are reliable and durable. (I had a klr250 as an example) Kick start models may be a little more pain to fire over but have that partisan robustness not needing starter or full charged up batteries. Worth their weight in gold in collapse and fuel shortages.

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    5. Good point! Batteries, like much else, are Less Good. Eliminate every possible variable.

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    6. 9:42 anon. The china pricing and drop ship availability is attractive, (like big breasts on a dirty whore analogy) but if we are focused on an apocalypse transport, which should have it's own primacy in decision making, it would behoove one to go the more difficult route to get the better product from the start. Analogy: I had a pristine Kawasaki klr650 (very desirable and battle tough bike) that a fellow sought out from my craigslist ad. (Hard to find not mauled up already off roading used) After bantering back and forth on info, an appointment was made and he showed up to get it. He flew into my Las vegas location from Colorado, cash in hand. I helped to kit him out for his ride back home with it. Long story short it may be a best course to go long on a more expensive, least available but higher quality product when regarding an apocalypse high priority equipment aquisition. Kinda along the sealed higher priced batteries versus cheapy wet cell type to get longer term usage. well past when stores are closed, u.p.s. no longer ships, and no support outside the wire. Things to consider with all this prepping stuff when money is involved, and one's survival or viability is at stake later on based upon decisions we make. Just two cents worth for fellow Minionites.

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    7. @12:43. Thanks for the input. Yes, of course you are right. I’m my own worst enemy, and know what I should be doing. I will still keep an eye out for a Jap dual sport.

      At the same time, the simplicity, and cheap, widely available parts, of my initial choice of the 150cc china scooter, seems to be whispering in my ear, and luring me back in that direction. And while I can’t understand what it’s saying, I like the sound of it :D As an example:

      GY6 short case (Brand new motor and transmission combo) $242.99

      https://www.amazon.com/Sange-Stroke-Scooter-Complete-Engine/dp/B07FNDJB9C/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=150cc+gy6+engine&qid=1561587858&s=gateway&sr=8-3

      GY6 long case (Brand new motor and transmission combo) $369.95

      https://www.amazon.com/Scooter-Engine-4-Stroke-Electric-Coolster/dp/B00OM16DEK/ref=sr_1_4?keywords=150cc+gy6+engine&qid=1561587858&s=gateway&sr=8-4

      My understanding is that when well taken care, the little GY6 engine is generally capable of around 12k miles on the low end, and quite possibly, up to 25k or more on the high end. In either event, that’s ridiculously cheap for an entire engine/transmission assembly. It should be noted that I think that I would be hard pressed to put 12k miles on anything. But perhaps it’s possible to see the appeal in consideration of the above. I guess it’s a fine balancing act. I can get the Japanese dual sport, and I’m sure it will be great. On the other hand, if it does fail, the parts are considerably more expensive. But I can get a Chinese scooter, which I will likely never wear out, and have a spare engine, and many back up parts to boot, for about the same price. Decisions decisions.

      But I’m sure that you’re right, and I’ll concentrate my efforts more towards the Japanese Dual sport. Thanks for the input.

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    8. @10:38. Thanks for the input. I was wondering about that, meaning what is the ideal displacement. Initially I was thinking that a 250cc would be ideal, but later wondered if I should get bigger, such as one of the 650’s. The 250cc would probably be ideal under most circumstances, but sometimes I think in terms of having enough power to make a get away, should it ever come down to that. But that’s probably just unnecessary paranoia on my part.

      I think that overall, it’s best to get a displacement that is big enough to meet your needs, and no more. When you start getting into the bigger bikes, fuel economy isn’t as good as one might think, and in many cases, no better than a small car. This to me defeats the purpose of the motorcycle, as my main purpose is one of economy.

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  2. Yes Jim. A Minon that has laid in signifocant food stocks in regular kitchen rotational and usage inventory ("AND!") Has a deeper larder storage of long term stores of base food items will give themselves a buffer and cushion that is akin to money in the mattress valuable. I was out of work for a long year and by dipping and barely nibbling into stored supplies, I saved my stashed cash for other ancilliary necessary expenses during a no income period. ("EVERYONE" must expect to have a no income event or period of time even if already on the dole, earning gibs, or of the belief they are Jesus' favorite and will always have "money") This also allowed me to lengthen my hermitage periods to a rare monthly foray thus reducing exposure to various hazards outside my wire. Even if you have money in your pocket, or on a plastic card, doesn't mean there will be what you seek available at a store, it will be reasonably priced, AND not extremely dangerous to venture out in the plastic s.u.v to continue ubershopper as before in your previous lifestyle. Like everything else as a bird in your hand analogy, if you don't have it in possession, you AIN'T got squat.

    Stay frosty.

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    1. Right, for those that haven't noticed, JIT was just the FIRST break down of retail and Industrial Age support paradigm. If you aren't planning like they will always be out of what you need at a critical moment, you are wrong.

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  3. Spent a wild month and a half on the land. Pouring rain, risk of floods, loose barges ramming into dams. Made progress on the starplate build, all dried in and after the 4th, I'm going back to try ferro cementing the exterior.

    Home despot sales a battery backup sump pump. I installed one a few years ago for my parents. The battery came dry and the acid was sold separate. I bought 2 extra 12 volt batts and acid for myself. They labels said basement watchdog.

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    1. Please keep me appraised on the dome build. I've just been going by theory rather than reports ( well, except the JewTube video of the wet-cement-soaked blankets over chickenwire initial skin ).

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  4. I don't have any clue of what I'm doing. All my progress is slow, because my budget is, oh I can haul that away for you. I was going to use plywood and 10 foot 2 by 6 to build the frame. but I got 30 full sheets of osb for free. So this is temp shelter that later will be my shed. I used 8 foot 2 by 4 to build the frame, added the osb and covered with tar paper. Will staple, screw, or nail a few layers of chicken wire down and try the cement next. Hope it works out. The frame wasn't very sturdy by itself, I thought about just adding the wire and cement soaked sheets, but I had the osb and it really stiffened up.

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    1. I would have done it the same way, given the cost of the material. The only reason I'm so gung-ho about ferrocement is its low cost compared to wood.

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    2. I've been giving some thought on using two inch white styrofoam , with a mesh of chicken wire inside and out. Then a thin layer of stucco mix inside and out.

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    3. Right, you only need enough cement for rain sealer, keeping the UV off and keeping a fellow with an ax from punching through. Well, fire suppression as well. Hell, how can you go wrong?

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  5. For 7:56 anon and other Minions so situated: being a lone wolf or solo rider is a net nuetral. I think there is too much (antiquated?) emphasis by the olde school that any and everyone should be mated and settled like ozzie and harriet. Sorry, not happening for a goodly percantile of folks. With that, there is even a more contribution ability of those alpha and beta bachelor/ettes for the larger society and tribes. It is by "NOT" by being tied to a domestic status that frees those types up for those dynamic and outside the box thinking, actions, and yes they have and will certainly
    possess instruction and leadership capabilities. Besides, you save more of your hard earned and hard fought for food for your self, then you can be charitable at your own discretion, accordingly to your standards and qualifications. Do not accept social justice warrior or churchy shaming idly. Stand up to any family or social shaming VIGOROUSLY, on the spot, then and there.

    My wheat will survive with me longer thus so, rather than the known odds of the 50/50 failure rate of marriages and relationships. I'll gladly take the lone wolf route, cause a Vegas bookie won't take a bet on that failure rate. Just saying.

    Stay frosty.

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  6. Not to worry about grain stocks Lord Bison. Plenty of carryover being held from prior years. Here's #

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4252019-corn-leads-grain-markets-lower-usda-report-showed-much-larger-expected-inventory-acreage

    Your recommendation for Dingo to buy rice cause corn will be short and cause food price rise seems a bit illogical.
    Corn, milo (sorghum) & soy are feed grains for livestock, excepting 35% of corn going to ethanol.
    Rice wheat canola are almost exclusively direct human food. These 3 are not fed to stock (small localized amts of wheat are, but tiny overall). Any rise in wheat, rice canola in US based on midwest flood is speculation not based on real numbers. Some Arkansas rice planting a bit delayed from irrigation infrastructure damaged but rice seed can, & often is, flown in via air.

    As for hay/forage, a little bit of near term (120 day) pinch. You see all those flooded out corn/soy guys are getting $$$ from USDA ("prevent plant" payments). But they can still plant hay/forage on same ground, but rules prohibit harvest until Nov 1 as it stands now (USDA keeps changing rules in middle of process...lots of farmers seriously pissed as they signed up early under less generous rules).
    Anyway....come Nov 1 the Midwest will be covered in sudan, millet & sorghum×sudan forages/hay provided no early killing freeze.
    Mark my words...so much forage is/will be planted on flooded corn ground that forage prices will collapse in Nov/Dec from oversupply. Forage crops will be worth more as organic matter to soil than to incur costs of harvest. They'll let it rot in field.
    You see the corn/soy growers and their ├╝ber powerful lobby got taxpayers to pay large % of expected corn/soy revenue based on farms historic bushel/acre. Now those grain guys are going to "double dip" and plant forage for sale in Nov. Farmers betting they'll get to make haylage and some dry hay.

    Cattle already in feed lots are now being sent to slaughter at 150-200 lbs lighter in hopes of stretching out corn supplies on hand. Buy beef now. Price increase due to fewer animals going to feedlots in Nov timeframe....ranchers will "hold back" their 500-600lbs weanlings this fall and will overwinter them and sell to feedlots in spring as heavy long yearling. They'll be able to overwinter them cheap cause of glut of forage that's going to be planted on corn/soy land.

    Crop to worry about is peanuts....high heat in Southeast is continuing and will impact flowering and yield. Buy your peanut butter today.
    Almonds in N. Cali got walloped during their short late Feb bloom time. Rain and cold hurt blossoms and the 1 million migratory bee hives shipped in for pollination didn't fly in the cold/wet. Go long almonds...
    Dairy broke the $17 cwt threshold. (Yeah!). Dairy trending up for now due to forage supply issues.

    Pay attention for Asian Swine fever expanding out of China. Some reports say few farms in Kazakhstan are infected....short jump to Europe if true.

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    1. Amazing info on the planting/farm situation, thank you. Dingo is in Oz, and has issues with shipping costs on wheat. And I tease him about eating rice-that is all that was. As far as Chink Swine Flu, sure, it COULD happen. I just see almost every year warning on a global farm pandemic of some type and after awhile it gets to be mumbled sounds of a wolf crier. First, a wheat rust was going to leave Africa and ruin the world. Then, bee die-offs were going to. Etc. I'm not saying they won't be part of a Perfect Storm one day-I just think it prudent to not panic every year over something else ( that is why I use "barnyard flu", to mock the yearly Newest Health Fear craze ).

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    2. Anon()(),
      Great information on farm commodities. I am a small, homestead type farmer and appreciate it.

      Please do these updates monthly or so. They are very valuable. I like knowing the patterns that are developing due to weather, the government, etc.

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    3. Anon()(),
      Great information on farm commodities.

      Lord Bison should make this a front page post once a month. Farm Commodities Predictions. You could have once a week an "external poster" article. ...or not. It is YOUR blog after all. Haha

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  7. I really, really hope you're wrong with the food stamp indexing/cash price for the "wealthy".

    I fear you're right. Amazing insight. I may have to steal that.

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    1. Please, be my guess. Fair warning, it is just a fear fueled fever dream wild ass guess.

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  8. re:
    motorcycles

    As Bison mentions, every cage-driver is a homicidal sadistic maniac with zero situation awareness.

    The speed of a ICE-powered bike compared to a pedal bike means the motorcyclist needs to extend the dome of constant 360-degree swivel-necking several times.

    My ancient BMW motorcycle has 140,000-miles. The last time it was on a road was probably three years ago. I have all the gear ready to ride, but just before each time, I see nincompoops incapable of caring for my safety.

    Would I attempt road-riding with a less than 600cc powerplant? Unlikely. I need to be able to squirt between two goofballs intent on suicide.

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    1. No offense Marge, but see what happens when women drive? I'm kidding!!! :) Actually, the problem is that all the White Boys are driving just as bad as the girls and Asians now. 30k deaths a year are a small price to pay for Detroit's stockholders and civil servant road crew pensioners. Let everyone drive, even illegals.

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    2. Lord Bison, you prefaced your essay with, "our centralized oil based food production paradigm."
      Before we get to food issues due to your belief we are on oil decline, there will have been many months (most likely years) of paralyzing economic events and serious political gridlock & probably fierce but isolated violence.
      I think what you wrote is feasible but the food issue is way downstream of cause. You jumped too far ahead, too rapidly. PTB will do almost anything to keep cheap food on shelves. Food is the marker of their legitimacy. Hello, Louise XIV & Marie Antoinette.
      Govt will pressure food companies to ditch high margin luxury brands and go to the budget route to keep food cheap. Remember when "generic" black & white canned veggies came online in late '70s-'80s?

      Can you write out a scenario or two that lays that out? I imagine .mil being recalled from almost all overseas deployments/postings & radically reduced air transport to save fuel. Bye bye NATO & European vacations...
      Stock market meltdowns and Internet clampdown (news suppression)

      Second, your note about SNAP(food stamps) expanding is a bit faulty I think. You and radiohead Hannity have a muddled view. The expansion of SNAP reflects Congress throwing gates open to allow SNAP to be used almost anywhere for anything.
      For instance, buying snacks and Coke at corner convenience store with SNAP...WTH?
      It was the SNAP budget that increased far far more than actual recipient numbers.
      If things blow up as you believe say bye bye to Coke and chips on SNAP it will be strictly rice, beans, some fresh veg/fruit & reduced meat allowed.

      Maybe we should stock away junk food and Coke as barter items. Wasn't it in Orwell 's 1984 where real jam smuggled into city from hinterland was relished. I know folks who drink Coke/Pepsi by 2 litres daily. That's an addiction in my book.

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    3. Because Po Boy welfare is in actuality Corporate Welfare, the Coke and Dorito's on Food Stamps make perfect sense. And my whole point of the article was that gov will subsidize food one way or another to hold down prices. We agree on that. If you know folks who drink a 2 liter of pop a day, you have a built in supply of food storage containers-no need to trash pick :)

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