Saturday, June 16, 2018

silver fundamentals 2 of 2


SILVER FUNDAMENTALS 2
*
note: free books. A bit weird, seems like a touch of supernatural and Chick Feelings, a variation on zombies https://amzn.to/2t37Jm9 .  Zombies https://amzn.to/2tdmCBW . 
*
I’ve probably been talking too much about silver recently.  It is at the bottom of your prepping list, and just a substitute for too much paper currency.  Silver is really skirting the line of “for the prepper that has everything”.  I don’t mean to imply its ownership is mandated ( other than for property tax on your junk land ).  So, just like when I talk about semi-auto’s, I’m not approving them, I’m discussing them for the minions who disagree with me on them.  When should you get extra silver?  When you start waking up at night with that nagging feeling that you have way too much paper currency and you’re worried you’ve gone from “necessary in an emergency” to the far less desirable “just going to sit there and lose value”.  This is STILL about silver for the economic collapse, NOT civilization collapse.

*

I told you about silver being destroyed by its use in industrial goods ( photography, solar panels ).  I had heard 90% destruction of all mined metal.  I believe that source was from SRS Rocco Report, who I trust with little reservation.  A YouTube video stated that the figure was 97%, the additional 7% in just the last six to ten years.  According to that source ( which I have no secondary verification of ), a century ago we had 20 billion ounces aboveground and today just 300 million.  That might be hyperbole, so don’t quote me. 

*

Unfortunately, regardless of the true numbers, the basic premise these people view silver through is flawed.  Silver tied to industrial uses, and depriving its value therein, was just a blip on the historical record.  It won’t continue, as the fuel to drive any modern industry disappears.  Silver will return to its monetary value only.  So, we not only have most ores drying up in supply ( remember, they need to be abundant AND cheap, to fit the current paradigm.  They don’t have to disappear completely before being uneconomical ), we have the need for silver in industry also beginning to end.

*

If we’ve pissed away most of our silver taking photo’s of Aunt Gertrude, which we then throw away when she’s been dead long enough, silver becomes far more dear as a monetary unit.  If you are going to buy silver ( just like IF you were going to buy semi magazines-not an endorsement, a discussion on another choice ), you have very little time left to do so, in my view.  One is the supply dry up.  And another is the economy.  Specifically, the derivatives market.  These idiot bankers are repeating 2007 all over again, yet this time, under the erroneous belief that the central bank can bail them out indefinitely, they doubled down on their bad behavior from before.

*

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I had no idea the banks COULD be bailed out the first time.  It could happen again ( as it has been for the last ten years ).  But there is a LOT of details that convince me that more likely than not, this time it could definitely be Game Over.  I’m not claiming this has a 100% change of occurring, but if I was a betting man ( which we all are, with our futures ), I’d say this time is different.  This time the crash is real and unavoidable.  If the Fracking Bubble is almost over, that means the last engine that pulled our economy the last decade is out of steam.  If the PetroDollar is almost defeated, that means we lose 60% of our daily oil supply.

*

We JUST used 90% of all the silver ever mined to make disposable items that were at most pennies of profit.  We JUST drew out the last of the oil from stripped wells to keep the SUV’s rolling to the shopping mall, buying products containing the last of the conventional oil in the form of plastics.  What is the basis for your optimism that we can pull something else out of our ass to kick the can down the road again?  I could very well be wrong.  There is or could be something to save us.  But do you want to gamble one way or another?

*

I don’t really care all that much about the tariff wars unfolding.  I’m more concerned about the exponential dollar dump with the end of the PetroDollar.  Then ALL imported products go way up in price to infinity.  But right now, not as long-ish term like our oil control, there is the whole mess with stiff pushback in Europe against the European Union.  It seems the least of the issues is that some countries don’t actually see fuzzy dark foreigners as their salvation.  The bigger issues involve money.  As usual.  And how much upset can they stand over there, over money, before those dumbass bankers with as little as ONE FRIGGIN PERCENT in assets to cover their derivatives positions ignite a Lehman’s Moment?

*

Who is going to be the new Lehman’s bank, that starts the domino dump for the world economy?  Hell, I’ve made fun of the European economy being used as a distraction, as we kept hearing “country X is about to crash” time after time.  Europe isn’t even the main concern.  They are just the spark that could start the explosion.  And that spark could start anywhere, even back here in New York.  And once the economy takes a Big Squishy, not only does mining stop ( unless it is a national rather than banker controlled asset, AND they have local logistics to mine and ship ), all those silver futures with no backing implode.  That is a whole other kettle of fish.

*

The silver now local and already mined, that is the silver on hand.  So don’t delude yourself silver will be the new currency.  We are at a point the Romans were, where all of the empires silver was shipped over to China in trade.  They lost most of their silver, not to return for many generations.  Well, we just did the same damn thing.  Our silver went to China and was turned into disposable consumer items.  Before, silver traded for silk still saw the silver survive, even if it took centuries to make its way back to Europe.  Now, what silver?

*

If you get rid of silver now, there will not be a replacement for it.  I would horde silver as if it were gold, not “merely just silver”.  We pissed away our silver thinking it was forever replaceable, just as the Romans did, until it wasn’t.  So, forget all that crap in post-apocalypse fiction about the junk silver currency.  Barter ONLY.  Silver will be far too precious and rare.  NOT abundant as it was since Christopher Columbus.  I stopped buying silver at $8 an ounce, more than ten years ago.  I concentrated on beans and bullets and bunkers.  Now, I’m thinking $20 silver right now is a far better deal than silver was at $5 fifteen years ago.  I could be wrong.  I doubt it.

END ( today's related link https://amzn.to/2sT2CF4 )
 
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page ( or from www.bisonbulk.blogspot.com ).
*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
*** Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for barely above Mere Book Money, so do your part.*** junk land under a grand *  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com *** Wal-Mart wheat***Amazon Author Page
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

 

22 comments:

  1. Well I for one have enjoyed the silver discussions for it has been an area I haven't know much about. It has caused me to look further into it and learn more stuff so I'm thankful to all that contributed.

    However, what I'd like to see is some discussion as to how silver (coins and bullion) will be used in the future, after collapse, or any other precious metals really. I only know one way to deal with people whether it be by barter or outright exchange of dollars to I have no means of reference regarding PM's other than how they relate to those dollars. In the event of financial collapse perhaps that reference to dollars will not be required, then what? Another aspect to it is that during and after financial collapse (I'm pretty certain that's how it's going to go down) will prices on things increase or drop or stay the same or fluctuate greatly and how does that work with PM's. IOW, I still have a lot of question regarding PM's in the future basically in how to use them in everyday transactions, etc. Keep up the good work. Thinking is my favorite past time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would strongly advise never using silver in trade. As I said, it is the New Gold, if reports are correct and there is far less in storage than gold. Some claim, literally, the # of ounces of silver left over from industrial use are LOWER than gold. I am inclined to believe it, if only from paranoia. Since you will only be trading with friends, family and tribe, stick with ammunition as a trade item. Rimfire, bought in insane amounts right now, is your best bet. There are more 22 rifles out there than AR's, right? My silver is not for trade. It is for savings. Up to the point the economy implodes, I can cash it in for living expenses if necessary. But my primary plan up until then is to preferable never spend it. It is just dollar savings in Forever Form. I hope to pass in on to my heirs. Once the economy descends into anarchy, I will forget the silver exists. Too many issues with security, plus whatever I get rid of, I never see a replacement. Hope that helps.

      Delete
    2. I prefer 90% U.S. coins, and my favorite is the dime. At full weight it is .07234 ozt (Ounces troy. A troy ounce is 31.1 grams, not 28.7 like a regular ounce) The weight will be a bit less as they are circulated. As long as you can read the date and most of the words on them they will still weigh enough to be worthwhile. If they are worn slick and you can't read anything, I would prefer to by them by weight. I love to buy them that way anyway, because you get actual value.

      They are so cheap that in circulated form I have never seen a fake. Too cheap to fake. Most junk silver can be had for around 12 times face value, or less and if you shop hard you can often find it at melt. (Actual silver spot price) Very easy to get people to believe it is real, but if you want to venture into other silver it is a good idea to be able to test it. Why pay a premium when you can buy at spot or very close to it? I am a fan of all of the silver, but I think the best bet is the most ounces that are recognizable for the least amount of money.

      First test I use is a magnet. Some will slow it down a little as you move over it like a Peace or Morgan dollar, but won't stick to it. I use a very strong neo magnet. Then weight and calipers to check for size. Many fakes are silver plated copper and copper will be bigger or thicker to get the correct size. Then there is acid test and costs less than $5 for 50 - 100 tests. Even on pure .999 silver it will leave a discolored area, so be aware of that before you test.

      MOFreedom

      Delete
    3. What the hell is a neo magnet?

      Delete
    4. Neodymium. Strongest permanent magnet available. Rare earth allowed with something else.
      S

      Delete
    5. A neo magnate is just a powerful magnate for its size.

      Delete
    6. Learning something new today. It was supposed to be my day off :) Thanks. I'll just try to remember "The Matrix" for Neo.

      Delete
    7. We don't know how exactly an economic collapse will play out. But one use silver may have is as a strong alternative currency to a increasingly worthless dollar. I'm not talking silver as the new Mad Max world official dollar. That may come. But rather silver as a currency that has trading value with other countries that have not imploded and retain some credibility with their currency. There may be many intermediate steps over fairly long periods on our way to the austere world that awaits at the end of empire. There may be tenuous lines of commerce that exist between a diminished US and less affected countries. Based on past histories of currency collapse/hyperinflation, there were usually adjacent currencies that held their value. And a degree of trade did continue with the right coin.
      An oft cited example of hyperinflation is Wiemar Germany, and from the same period Austria and Hungary. When these currencies went to shit rather rapidly, the few people who were quick enough to convert to Swiss Francs preserved what they had. The slow learners, trusting in their respective governments, lost everything. Of course much barter went on as well. Farmers buying pianos from the former wealthy, paying with a small sack of potatoes. That type of thing.
      I mention this because there is the right tool for every situation.
      At the right place and time, the right tool may be:a fast, accurate 9mm, a sharp axe, a scythe, the medical reference book, etc.
      For financial calamities we have no control over, silver is likely one of the tools that will give maneuvering options.
      As a few personal anecdotes, I have used PMs (gold in these 2 cases) for the unexpected. Nothing dramatic like bribing way out of a concentration camp. But one time when young I out traveled my folding money and was able to get an airline ticket back with my holdout K-rand.
      Another time I tapped my PM reserve to get a mint German HK91 that would never come my way again (I already had spare parts, oodles of mags for, a duplicate and familiarity with).
      This was old gold at older prices.
      Silver is the best PM choice now. No doubt.
      S

      Delete
    8. Just keep in mind trade will of course be disrupted- as oil diminishes international trade will fall faster, at least for the common man. And modern past hyperinflations saw other countries still on the gold standard, or in a time of global growth. Just don't read the wrong lesson in those periods.

      Delete
    9. Yes, no doubt whatever transpires will not be a replay of 80 year old history.
      A grand reckoning is on the way. And the deep reserves of yesteryear are no longer. The natural world is going away: fisheries, species, even domesticated varieties. Also I agree we are at (or past) peak everything that gets dug out of the ground. And we need to lose about 6 billion-plus people
      My point is, we will likely grind on with some portion of our day to day existence: paying bills to the bitter end, trying to buy essential stuff. Having silver gives the option to participate in what trade still exists. 99 plus percent of the population do not hold PMs (aside from trivial amounts of jewelry). Most peoples lifetime savings exist as electrons in the Matrix.
      I hope your kids send you Silver Eagles for Father's Day.
      S

      Delete
    10. Right, just human nature to return to normalcy ASAP. Camping 365 only sounds good in theory.

      Delete
  2. I don't believe it will go down again. Yet , then again I got caught still holding silver past 1980.
    Of course I'm still holding silver which was purchased at face price from way back. All meant for old age carry over.
    Pretty much have a life times food stored up ( given I believe life expectancy to be no more than five years when SHTF.
    But still use spare change to buy more silver eagles, even tho , just cuz.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The wonderful thing about junk land, five years of food ( for both of you ), lots of ammo and etc. is that once there, you CAN piss away money however you deem fit, and it just doesn't matter if you are wrong. Just Cuz, indeed.

      Delete
  3. Correct theme analogies Jim. Junk silver (small denomonated better for small transactions) and known minting 1oz. Coins may be a replacement standard for local/regional trade post collapse. Minions have to strategize for not only a dollar collapse/credit collapse/hyper inflation. They must make on the ground planning for a change in governments shifting borders in their locations. If they are properly positioned in a "nice neighborhood" that can organize after a dust-up and throw up new frontiers/borders and hold it then good on them. One may find they are holding too much f.u.s.a. dollars and wake up in a new country with a new currency that won't swap your now toilet paper dollars. Another problem is being on the wrong side of a border with the wrong government, wrong skin pigment, and a worse than venezualan economy. Plan accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I look at my currency savings as hard won but easily lost. So much can bite it in the ass. Not having SOME, can also bite you. Don't you just love "get screwed less, but screwed nonetheless" strategies?

      Delete
  4. I really have to disagree with this statement...
    "Silver is really skirting the line of “for the prepper that has everything”." Maybe you intended "silver in quantity?" Silver should be considered part of your first aid preps (anti-bacterial) as explained a couple days ago.
    Peace out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think silver has minor properties on healing/preserving. But it certainly isn't a Be All, nor do all folks believe in it. Twenty five years ago I really got into that food grade hydrogen peroxide ( a program you start small and up the quantities in a oxygen therapy ). Took to less than stellar results. Woke up with insane stomach aches during the night. Bad enough to get the doc to do tests ( I trusted them back then a lot more than I do today ). Here is my point. Don't buy too far into alt meds. They are at best, Better Than Nothing. And PS, that wasn't my only bad experience listening to the Alternate Quacks.

      Delete
  5. I buy some every month regardless of what spot price is. Some months I get more than others but hey, it's better than paper, always.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better than paper, always. See my comment on dried dingleballs.

      Delete
  6. if I went to my county tax office with a hundred silver quarters to pay my taxes they would give me $25 for it. period...
    jpf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to pay the fee and get a coin shop to give you cash.

      Delete
  7. Asking questions are truly good thing if you are not understanding something
    totally, however this article offers good understanding even.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENTS HAVE BEEN CLOSED