saudi and iran conflict

THE SAUDI IRAN CONFLICT

I’m pretty sure most of you are either indifferent to or begrudgingly aware of geopolitics.  I love the stuff.  All you need to know to appreciate it, in this instance, is that this crap can crash your economy.  Good bye well paying job, goodbye trophy wife with silicon brains, goodbye retirement.  Hell, worse case scenario, goodbye to your rectal virginity.  Prior to the last week, Saudi Arabian oil, as important to the functioning of the global industrial/information economy as it can get, had two fear factors going for it.  We would lose control over its government to another super power, or terrorists would, in a fit of fundamentalist whatever, blow up the refineries or wells.  Well, as it turns out that wasn’t much of a big deal.  If you believe in CIA opium and crack cocaine supply lines, you could say that most terrorist organizations have been/are controlled by nation state intelligence groups.  It clearly wasn’t in nation states interests at the time of the KGB or the CIA to diminish the oil supply.  And our petrodollar while sickly and on life support, isn’t dead just yet.  But now Iran and Saudi Arabia are in a near state of war which could go hot, and the old rules and motivations don’t apply.

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I’m not hollering from the rooftops that the end is nigh and we could all die, nor am I giving advice such as to cash in your retirement fund ( although that wouldn’t be a bad idea anyway as any digits under the bankers control can disappear in a bank holiday ).  What I am saying is that this is a perfect example as to why the optimists hoping for another year of the same ( more gradual getting slightly worse ) might be blowing smoke up your ass.  Saudi Arabia executed some Shitte religious dude, which got the Iranians pissed off, a Saudi embassy was arsened and someone severed diplomatic ties.  It seems that the major oil region in Saudi is a Shitte majority population area.  The Saudi royals are Sunni.  Iran is Shitte.  Sunni Saudi’s cracked down on dissent in the region of the oil production to forestall more trouble.  This could be just another minor tiff, or not. 

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Let’s visit our smiling little Korean gentlemen.  It seems they just detonated a nuclear weapon.  The US response?  Obammy went golfing.  Iran might, in theory, also have some nuclear weapons.  If the US won’t confront North Korea, both because it has Chinese friends and nukes, will we confront Iran, with nukes and with Russian friends?  My Magic 8-Ball says “not too bloody likely”.  So, if Iran need not fear the US, and they and the Saudi’s get into a pushing match ( which the Saudi’s might not have a choice in as they are in a bit of a tight spot financially and politically ), what is to stop Iran from using conventional ordinance on Saudi oil production?  They aren’t a terrorist group with a white Toyota pick-up truck and a few Kalashnikovs.  They have a nice military to play with ( the Saudi’s are using theirs as occupational forces.  Not all, but some of their forces are nevertheless busy elsewhere ).  Will their Russian allies really object to the price of oil quadrupling ( and remember, Iran has oil to sell also.  China might just occupy the Saudi war zone and get its oil supply as part of an alliance with Russia and Iran )?  Take out the Saudi 10% and oil goes price ballistic and supply backlogs ( and no, this wouldn‘t save our fracking industry.  Our economy tanks first from the oil exports drying up and you need lots of financing to frack ). 

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Why would the Russians not object now when the KGB wasn’t interested in controlling the middle eastern oil?  Because back then the US could afford to fight for the oil ( we were mostly petroleum self sufficient strategically.  The disruption was all financial.  Now, we don’t have the energy independence to get into a prolonged war [ can anyone say “Axis powers”? ]).  Now, fifteen years after we tried to stop the threat to the petrodollar system, it is quite evident we have lost the ability to make a difference in the oil patch ( in a few months, the US weapons systems were demonstrated to be inefficient compared to the Eastern Powers.  Oops! If the American people were perceptive of our military impotence there would be a bit less flag waving.  I have a son over there and if SHTF because we don’t gracelessly backslide and slink home, I fear the worst ).

None of this necessarily will come to pass.  But Black Swans seem to be falling on our heads right now.  Pay attention.

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